Dinorah Azpuru on Visualizing the Complexity of the Border Crisis

Dinorah Azpuru has some analysis of the unaccompanied minors border crisis for Americas Quarterly with Beyond the Blame Game: Visualizing the Complexity of the Border Crisis. You can see read about the complexity of the problem which is represented in the figure above by click on the link. Here's her conclusion.

The previous analysis shows the complexity of the so called “border crisis.” . As a result, the approach to solving the problem has to be comprehensive and multi-layered. There is no point in playing a blame game that oversimplifies the situation and only offers palliatives without addressing the multiple root causes of migration.  

That same complexity calls for a collective effort. It is evident that the three Northern Triangle countries will not be able to solve the problems by themselves—and although many international actors will provide them with assistance, the issue is particularly relevant for the United States, where the problems of the Northern Triangle are having clear and present consequences. 

The presidents of the region have called for the U.S. to implement an equivalent of “Plan Colombia” for Central America, but any solution should go beyond the mere investment of millions of dollars; no plan can work if key actors within those countries—including government leaders, opposition political parties, civil society and business elites—do not come together with determination to fight not only against organized crime and gangs, but also against their own internal disagreements, corruption and inequality.

I'm not that optimistic that there's going to be any huge breakthrough in the near-term. The countries of Central America don't have a great history of working together although they seem to be trying to do so in their approach to the US in this current crisis. The US also doesn't seem to be willing to make a large Plan Colombia-type investment for the region. The focus is most likely going to remain on incremental improvements.