Monday, January 26, 2015

That sounds closer to the mark: Central America wants $15 billion

According to a statement released by the Guatemalan government, the Northern Triangle of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador need an injection of approximately $15 billion over over four years, $5 billion each, to fund their Alliance for Prosperity. The plan is designed to increase economic growth and to reduce insecurity in order to stem the flow of nationals northward.

The financial commitment that the Northern Triangle requests seems to be much closer to what is needed than the $1 billion that Thomas Shannon mentioned during his recent visit to Guatemala (still haven't come across details). It's unclear why each country needs exactly the same amount of money, given the vast differences among them. It's also unclear how much, if any, of the $15 billion that is needed will come from their coffers - or is their contribution on top of the US' $15? For example, while the US is providing $277 in a second Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact for El Salvador, that country's government is contributing an additional $88 million.

In some ways, I'd like to see greater progress on strengthening the rule of law, reducing corruption, and improving government transparency and tax collection before the US makes such a large commitment. On the other hand, it's a bit of chicken and egg thing. Greater resources are needed before progress can be made on such issues. Perhaps each country can make an inexpensive gesture of good faith before moving forward.

For example, President Otto Perez Molina and the government of Guatemala can request an extension for the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG)) and to allow independent investigations in Perez Molina's and his vice president Roxana Baldetti's financial irregularities. El Salvador could open the books on the FMLN's Alba Petroleos and Sigfredo Reyes. Honduras could invite stepped-up international assistance to resolve unsolved murders committed against journalists, lawyers, and land and human rights advocates.

It doesn't hurt to ask for the moon but be ready to settle for the stars.

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