I wrote and submitted this op-ed about 48 hours after the elections in Honduras. It was never published so I figured that I might as well put it up now. Basically everyone should simply have let the count of votes play itself out in Honduras before proclaiming themselves the winner (Castro and Hernandez) and congratulating the winner (regional presidents).
On Sunday, Hondurans went to the polls to elect a new president, 128 members of congress, 298 mayors and vice-mayors, and representatives to the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN). With two-thirds of the vote counted, it appears that Juan Orlando Hernandez of the governing National Party defeated Xiomara Castro de Zelaya of Liberty and Refoundation Party (Libre) and several other candidates with 34 percent of the vote, 5 percentage points over his nearest rival. Observers hoped that the elections would not only choose the officials who would govern Honduras for the next four years, but would begin to heal the wounds that have remained open since former President Manuel Zelaya was removed in a coup in June 2009. Unfortunately, neither the campaign leading up to Sunday’s vote nor what has transpired since should make one confident that Hondurans or the international community are ready to move on.
In 2009, President Manuel Zelaya of the Liberal Party, the Supreme Court, congress, and the business community were engaged in a confrontation over the political and economic direction of the country. Many feared that President Zelaya’s desire to hold a constitutional referendum and, when that didn’t work, a non-binding poll on whether to hold a referendum were designed to reform the constitution so as to allow for the possibility of presidential re-election. Zelaya’s immediate re-election would have allowed him to cement the country’s political and economic relationship with the Venezuelan-led Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA). The Supreme Court then ordered the military to remove Zelaya and expel him from the country before he could carry out the vote.
In the aftermath of the coup, an interim government took charge until elections brought Porfirio Lobo of the National Party to the presidency. Instead of righting the ship, the security situation continued to deteriorate. Drug trafficking, organized crime, gangs, economic disputes, corruption, and government repression helped make Honduras the most dangerous country in the world with a murder rate of approximately 85 per 100,000. Poverty and inequality, which had improved slightly during the Zelaya administration, worsened over the next four years. The Lobo government struggled to pay police, the military and government employees. Honduras suffers from dangerous levels of violence, impunity, poverty and inequality, which many hoped that the 2013 elections would help them to address.
However, the campaign was marked by high levels of violence. In the run up to Sunday’s vote, journalists, party activists, and candidates were killed. A human rights group, Rights Action, compiled an incomplete list of party members killed in the months leading up to the election. They found that at least 36 people were killed. Eighteen victims were associated with the Libre Party. Libre was formed by Zelaya’s supporters from the Liberal Party as well as a number of individuals and groups who mobilized in response to the coup. Rights Action also recorded at least 24 armed attacks against party-affiliated individuals, including 15 against Libre-related individuals. The National Lawyers Guild “expressed alarm about consolidation of power over the electoral process by the National Party, which has controlled the judiciary, the military, and the Congress since the 2009 military coup.” In December 2012, Congress illegally dismissed four members of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice because they had disagreed with their rulings. Allegations of fraud surrounded the National Party’s primary election of Juan Orlando Hernandez ten months ago. The 2009 coup and subsequent repression, the strengthening of the National Party’s grip over the country’s political institutions, and Hernandez’ questionable primary victory all set the stage for Sunday’s vote. While incumbent political parties often have advantages against opposition challengers, the situation in Honduras went well beyond “politics as usual.”
Election day posed its own set of challenges. Hours before the vote, two election workers, who were active members of Libre, were shot and killed. The properties of Radio Globo and other independent radio stations were surrounded by the military in what was clearly perceived as acts of intimidation rather than protection. While many international observers reported that voting occurred without significant difficulties, including the Organization of American States and the European Union, others questioned the fairness of the elections throughout the day. Elections observers were denied admission to several polling stations. Several Hondurans were shot and killed close to a polling station in an eastern region of the country, Mosquitia. The National Lawyers Guild claims to have observed or to have received credible reports of vote buying and the buying of party credentials – “This threatens the integrity of the election process as individuals staffing the voting tables were in charge of counting ballots at the end of the day. There were also reports of the distribution of gratuities to National Party supporters. The NLG also documented inconsistencies with voter rolls and vote tabulations.”
Then after polls closed and with about 25 percent of the vote counted, presidential candidates Xiomara Castro de Zelaya of Libre and Juan Orlando Hernandez of the governing National Party each declared victory. Hernandez announced victory based on the results of exit polls and official results while Castro declared victory based upon the results of exit polls and unofficial results that had been transmitted to the party. With Hernandez ahead, according to voting authorities, Castro and Salvador Nasralla of the Anti-Corruption Party (PAC) declared fraud. They claimed that the votes counted by representatives of the political parties at the polling stations did not match the results announced by the electoral authorities. Some might have been off by as much as 20 percent. Castro has so far refused to accept the official results. As reported by Gabriel Stargardter and Gustavo Palencia, Castro’s husband, former President Manuel Zelaya, declared that "We are going to defend our triumph at the ballot box and if necessary will take to the streets” and that "We will seek a recount ballot box by ballot box, booth by booth, town by town.” There is little indication that Libre and the left are ready to concede the election and to begin to work with the new government. Until Libre presents its evidence and the electoral bodies rule on the fraud allegations, Hondurans and the international community should treat the results as tentative.
It’s not exactly clear whether the new government is interested in working with the opposition anyway. As students at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras protest the outcome of the election, the government has sent in riot police with tear gas. Previous conflicts in 2009 and 2012 resulted in the sacking of the president and Supreme Court Justices. One must remain hopeful that Hondurans will be able to work together, but radical differences in political, economic, and security policies and the uncertainty around the election make that unlikely.
And it was not just the Honduran presidential candidates who declared victory prematurely. The presidents of Colombia, Panama, Guatemala, and Nicaragua each congratulated Hernandez on his victory. Given the controversy surrounding the 2009 coup and the violence of the ensuing years, as well as the alleged fraud on election day, it was inexcusable for the region’s presidents to congratulate Hernandez. Less than 50 percent of the vote had been tallied with two of the top four candidates, one associated with the left and one with the right, claiming fraud. Their congratulatory calls gave the appearance that they were ready to move on as quickly as possible and that they were uninterested in a final vote count or sorting through any irregularities. While the US government was much better in calling for patience until all the ballots had been counted and legal challenges pursued, both prior to and following Sunday’s vote, its characterization of the vote as “transparent” seems to have been a stretch. The election was close enough and the tension high enough that the Honduran people deserved better.
Forty-eight hours after the close of voting, it appears as if Juan Orlando Hernandez will be the next president of Honduras. He leads by five points over his closest competitor Xiomara Castro. Unless there was serious ballot box fraud, it is highly unlikely that the remaining uncounted votes are going to change the outcome. I am not one who believes that victory by Xiomara Castro and Libre is necessary for Honduras to move forward. However, unfortunately, the campaign, the vote itself, the odd 48 hours that have followed, and the fact that approximately 65 percent of the voters did not choose the winning candidate, means that the next president is starting off on some shaky ground, none of which is helpful in governing over one of the region’s poorest and most violent countries.
No comments:
Post a Comment