Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Has the FMLN government been an economic failure?

Let me just say that I found this interview by Elaine Freedman with economist César Villalona very persuasive. In Has the FMLN government been an economic failure?, Villalona tackles debt, the deficit, capital flight, investor confidence, public spending, poverty, and taxes/tax evasion among other important topics.

Here's a taste:
EF: But Miguel Lacayo insists that “There are more poor people, more unemployed and less optimism about the future today than when Funes and the FMLN took the helm of this country.” And Salvador Samayoa adds that “right from the start of his mandate the President completely misplaced the papers related to his main promise: job creation. And the people have felt the effects. In the last opinion survey by JBS Market Research for El Diario de Hoy, 92% of those polled said the employment situation is the same or worse. It’s an overwhelming figure. And it’s no trick or manipulation of the figures, like others do when consolidating answers for the benefit of their own arguments. In this ‘same or worse’ figure the vast majority of people (68.5%) think the employment situation is worse.” What do you think about this?
CV: The Multi-Purpose Household Survey, conducted every year since the seventies by the Economy Ministry’s General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses, reported a national poverty rate of 40% in 2008. In 2012 the rate had dropped to 34%. When President Funes took office, unemployment was calculated at 7.3%. In 2012 it was 6.1%. I’m referring to open employment here. Under-employment has neither risen nor fallen, remaining at 35-40%. Although that’s significant under-employment, Miguel Lacayo’s statement got things completely the wrong way round.
Certainly, the majority of people are still in a very difficult situation and the 34% poverty rate is still a high figure. For someone living in poverty, the fact that the rate has dropped a few percentage points doesn’t mean anything, because personally speaking the situation hasn’t changed. But that doesn’t mean that the overall situation in the country hasn’t improved.
Honestly, it's worth reading the entire interview. 

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