Friday, December 27, 2013

Mass killing in Central America?

The National Civilian Police in Guatemala recorded 4,881 homicides between January and November 2013. Unfortunately, they have no motive for 2,390 killings (49%) so it makes it really difficult to empirically support many hypotheses regarding violent crime in the country. What I also don't trust in the data is that each killing only falls into a single category. For example, I'm not sure how authorities classified the nine police officers killed in Huehuetenango in June. They had to be placed in either the ignored or revenge category when they could also have fallen under confrontation with the PNC, narco-trafficking, and victims of robbery.

I was only thinking about this because of Jay Ulfelder's post on A Notable Year of the Wrong Kind in which Mexico is the only Latin American country that experienced "mass killing" in 2013. By mass killing, he means "any episode in which the deliberate actions of state agents or other organizations kill at least 1,000 noncombatant civilians from a discrete group." The organizations are probably cartels but I'm not sure if the responsibility is lumped together or broken down by different organizations. I'm also not sure who the discrete group in Mexico is other than civilians but I would probably say "migrants" making their way north to the United States.

Guatemala has suffered between 5,000 and 6,500 murders each year for the last few years, but we don't have exact numbers on who did the killings or who were the victims. Given what we read, one would suspect that gangs, organized crime, and drug traffickers have been responsible for well over 1,000 deaths each year but the PNC's incomplete statistics don't back that up.

El Salvador will "only" experience 2,500 or so murders this year. I suspect that the MS-13 and 18th Street gangs are responsible for at least 1,000 of those deaths but I can't be certain. Honduras will finish the year with over 7,000 murders and a rate over 80 once again but we can't be certain there because the government has stopped sharing homicide statistics. Venezuela will suffer approximately 25,000 murders and finish the year with a murder rate just below 80 per 100,000.

Anybody want to take a crack at which organization/group was responsible for killing over 1,000 members of a specific discrete group in the region in 2013?

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