But everyone wants to know what is going on with President Otto Perez Molina's interest in drug legalization and decriminalization (one of my early Al Jazeera op-eds).
WPR: What effect would marijuana and opium poppy legalization, as proposed by Molina, have on criminal actors and the violence they cause?
Beltran: Molina has been an outspoken proponent of drug policy reform on the international stage, but so far has done little on the domestic level. One of the proposals he has put forth is the use of Guatemalan opium poppy production for medicinal purposes. The proposal deserves consideration and is currently being evaluated by a recently established advisory commission.
Beyond increasing availability of medicines, the proposal could reduce a significant source of revenue for criminal groups and potentially make those groups weaker and smaller. Such a shift, however, could also result in criminal organizations tapping other illicit revenue streams and could even contribute to increased violence sparked by competition for dwindling resources.
Establishing a regulated market in opium poppy is a complex undertaking, particularly given the deep-rooted problems of corruption. To be successful, it would have to be done on a step-by-step basis and in the context of a broader rural development strategy to improve the livelihoods of small farmers who grow poppy. It would also require strong and effective institutions, which the country currently lacks. If Guatemala is serious about legalizing the medical use of poppy, it needs to be serious about fighting corruption and strengthening its institutions.
Legalization and regulating currently illicit drugs is going to be quite the challenge. Given Guatemala's institutions and historical track record, I can't imagine that many people are optimistic that the government is going to be able to pull this one off.
Given that next year's elections are seventeen months away, I wouldn't hold my breath.
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