Ticos will head to the polls once again today, or will they?

Luis Solis' first place finish in the first round of Costa Rica's February presidential vote surprised many, including myself. However, what was actually more surprising was what happened in the days and weeks following the vote. The Citizen Action Party and Solis' support increased to the point where he doubled, perhaps tripled, his second round opponent's support. His opponent, Johnny Araya of the incumbent party, subsequently dropped out of the race.

However, Costa Rican electoral law requires that Araya's name remains on the ballot but he's been done campaigning for a month. His party's still been out there but the only real question has been how much Solis going to win by and how many people are going to turn out in a one-way race.

In a sentiment I've read before, Javier Cordoba writes

Luis Solis' main challenger in Sunday's presidential election is voter abstention.

The center-leftist's only flesh-and-blood rival in the runoff dropped out of the race last month, leaving Solis one remaining challenge: getting enough Costa Ricans to the polls to give him a respectable vote total.

That's where it gets tricky. Costa Rica has compulsory voting where citizens are required to vote. However, compulsory voting isn't enforced. Therefore, there's some question as to how many people are going to turn out today and whether the results are going to give Solis some type of mandate. He's going to have minority support in the congress so he is going to have to rely to a certain extent on the public support to advance his preferred legislation.

It can't hurt but I'm just not entirely convinced that a surprisingly high turnout and/or a three- or even four-to-one margin of victory is going to make a difference.

You can read more in Something is wrong in the region’s “exceptional” democracy.