Decreasing homicide rates lead to surge in unaccompanied minors?

Obviously, violence is one of the main causes of why so many unaccompanied minors and families are escaping the Northern Triangle to neighboring countries and the United States. However, I'm skeptical of those who have been citing homicide statistics to demonstrate their point.

Guatemala has seen four consecutive years of decreasing homicide rates. Last year's decrease, however, is the result of population growth (total homicides were higher). Last I read, murders are down nearly 10 percent this year.

El Salvador has had two consecutive years of lower murder rates bringing its rate down from ~70 to ~40 per 100,000. I get the increasing impression that the number for the last two years was higher than reported given the reported increase in disappearances but not enough disappearances to bring the number to higher than what it was in 2011 (when there were still disappearances but no one was paying much attention). And 2014 isn't looking too good.

Honduras' homicide rate is in another league compared to its neighbors as it is somewhere between 80 and 90. However, last year's rate seems to have been slightly lower than 2012 and this year is looking better than last.

en Honduras también está bajando la violencia homicida! pic.twitter.com/j0rIAg7IQj
— Carlos Mendoza (@camendoza72) July 7, 2014

The homicide rates are approximate. There is some discrepancy over how to determine what is a homicide versus some other type of violent death in each country. There are individuals who are disappeared and sometimes presumed murdered but are not included in statistics. And international and domestic institutions use different population estimates. These all affect the homicide rates. However, in none of the three countries does a recent spike in homicide rates explain the spike in unaccompanied minors.

I'd also say its better to look at homicide stats broken down geographically anyway. Seventy-nine out of El Salvador's 262 municipalities had experienced ZERO homicides as of a few weeks ago. That's 30% of the country's municipalities. And in Guatemala, 126 out of its 333 municipalities had experienced ZERO homicides as of the end of April. That's 38% of the country's municipalities (follow @camendoza72 who reports on crime trends). If homicides are causing people to flee, we would want to see a relationship at the municipal or departmental level rather than just compared to similarly poor Nicaragua.

And if a surge in homicides was causing the surge in unaccompanied minors, we would have expected the flood years ago (unless this is something of a lagged effect). Here is the regional homicide rate over time thanks to Carlos Mendoza. Murders increased following the adoption of mano dura policies and the increase in drug trafficking throughout the region.

Again, violence is a strong cause of the "surge" (don't you hate that word, I just think of Iraq). However, the correlation with increasing homicide rates doesn't work. I'd focus more on reported forced gang recruitment and extortion figures (these numbers are even shakier), crime victimization surveys, lost hope, family reunification pressures, rumors, and the list goes on and on.