For the last few weeks, Guatemalans have taken to the streets to protect gross corruption in their country, especially as demonstrated by the Otto Perez Molina administration. There's a strong sentiment that the protesters want him gone. However, that's not absolute. There's strong sentiment that they do not want Manuel Baldizon to be the next elected official to plunder the country's financial reserves, although I would imagine that the LIDER supporters are not on board with this. After that, there's some who are pushing for deeper reforms rather than a reshuffling of the deck chairs.
With an eye towards September's national elections, it's unclear what political party is going to be able to capitalize on the anti-corruption sentiment. The main opposition party, LIDER, has been holding hands with the Patriotic Party for the last few months. It's tough to see LIDER and Baldizon benefiting from the corruption scandals given that Baldizon himself, rightly or wrongly, seems to be associated with corruption. As the favorite, however, anything that hurt the PP should help LIDER to a certain.
To my surprise, UNE still exists as a political party. I thought that the fiasco surrounding Sandra Torres' run for the presidency in 2011 would doom the party. However, she now has to be one of the favorites to advance to a runoff later this year. While El Periodico had claimed her husband's administration's legacy to the people of Guatemala would be corruption, we haven't seen any hammers fall on the Colom's or their party since Alvaro left office. She remains popular because of various social programs that she oversaw as first lady. The PP's self-destruction definitely helped UNE, but I'm not sure that the party will be able to build on the anti-corruption sentiments.
One political grouping that hopes to build upon the rejection of Otto Perez Molina and the political establishment is the Frente Amplio Winaq-URNG. The Frente Amplio recently chose its presidential and vice-presidential candidates for September with Miguel Ángel Sandoval and Mario Gerardo Ellington Lambe. Sandoval is a familiar face. The political groupings on the left have failed to capitalize on citizen frustration with corruption and conflicts over mining and natural resource projects in the past. They were never able to build upon the pink tide sentiment of the last decade either. They have not benefited electorally from the calls for transitional justice.
They might be able to capitalize on the anti-corruption sentiment this year. A handful of analysts with whom I have spoken have voter for the URNG in the past as a protest vote. Perhaps more Guatemalans will do so this year. However, that probably means their binomial will capture between 5-10% of the total vote and 5-9 congressional seats. Minimal but better than previous showings.
The URNG (one of the Frente Amplio members) arguably has had one of the strongest political parties in the countries in terms of a clearly defined ideology political platform and regular departmental and national meetings. However, they don't have the resources to compete against the other political parties.
Prensa Libre
Guatemalans have come to expect food and other handouts at political rallies and for their vote. The URNG generally has not been able to afford such enticements. In the photo above, Baldizon's LIDER party raffled off bicycles and a motorcycle at one of their campaign events this weekend. They encouraged everyone to stay to the end of the rally as they were giving food away afterwards. Will greater numbers of Guatemalans reject this type of politics in 2015?
Perhaps the anti-corruption sentiment will help the Frente Amplio this year.
With an eye towards September's national elections, it's unclear what political party is going to be able to capitalize on the anti-corruption sentiment. The main opposition party, LIDER, has been holding hands with the Patriotic Party for the last few months. It's tough to see LIDER and Baldizon benefiting from the corruption scandals given that Baldizon himself, rightly or wrongly, seems to be associated with corruption. As the favorite, however, anything that hurt the PP should help LIDER to a certain.
To my surprise, UNE still exists as a political party. I thought that the fiasco surrounding Sandra Torres' run for the presidency in 2011 would doom the party. However, she now has to be one of the favorites to advance to a runoff later this year. While El Periodico had claimed her husband's administration's legacy to the people of Guatemala would be corruption, we haven't seen any hammers fall on the Colom's or their party since Alvaro left office. She remains popular because of various social programs that she oversaw as first lady. The PP's self-destruction definitely helped UNE, but I'm not sure that the party will be able to build on the anti-corruption sentiments.
One political grouping that hopes to build upon the rejection of Otto Perez Molina and the political establishment is the Frente Amplio Winaq-URNG. The Frente Amplio recently chose its presidential and vice-presidential candidates for September with Miguel Ángel Sandoval and Mario Gerardo Ellington Lambe. Sandoval is a familiar face. The political groupings on the left have failed to capitalize on citizen frustration with corruption and conflicts over mining and natural resource projects in the past. They were never able to build upon the pink tide sentiment of the last decade either. They have not benefited electorally from the calls for transitional justice.
They might be able to capitalize on the anti-corruption sentiment this year. A handful of analysts with whom I have spoken have voter for the URNG in the past as a protest vote. Perhaps more Guatemalans will do so this year. However, that probably means their binomial will capture between 5-10% of the total vote and 5-9 congressional seats. Minimal but better than previous showings.
The URNG (one of the Frente Amplio members) arguably has had one of the strongest political parties in the countries in terms of a clearly defined ideology political platform and regular departmental and national meetings. However, they don't have the resources to compete against the other political parties.
Prensa Libre
Guatemalans have come to expect food and other handouts at political rallies and for their vote. The URNG generally has not been able to afford such enticements. In the photo above, Baldizon's LIDER party raffled off bicycles and a motorcycle at one of their campaign events this weekend. They encouraged everyone to stay to the end of the rally as they were giving food away afterwards. Will greater numbers of Guatemalans reject this type of politics in 2015?
Perhaps the anti-corruption sentiment will help the Frente Amplio this year.
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