"Out! Out! Out!"

Plaza Publica

Thousands of protesters turned out in Guatemala City to demand the resignation of President Otto Perez Molina and Vice President Roxana Baldetti .

Protesters gathered for the demonstration, which they dubbed "Give Up Already," banging pans and blowing whistles as they marched to the National Palace waving the Guatemalan flag.

"We do not want thieves to continue to rule us, to see us as toys, it is brazen what they do with the people of Guatemala," protester Maria Letona told AFP.

PanAm Post gives a number of 15,000 protesters but it's not clear where that estimate comes from. (Update: 20,000 - 30,000 maybe but nothing official). That's a pretty significant number but probably not enough to force either the vice president or president to resign at this time. We'll have to see where the protests go from here. Either way, I'm impressed with the turnout by Guatemalans demanding the resignations of the president and vice president. A remarkable day.

I know I shouldn't be but I'm still amazed that this level of corruption is going on eight years into CICIG's mandate, especially if the fraud goes directly to Perez Molina and Baldetii as most seem to suspect. It's possible that the vice president and the president won't be able to complete their terms in office but we are going to need additional evidence that they are the individuals referred to on the SAT audio tapes provided by the Public Ministry and CICIG.

I'm wondering how much the SAT scandal hurts Obama's aid plan for the Northern Triangle. Members of the US Congress have been pretty outspoken in sharing their concerns about providing our Central American partners with additional sums of money at the same time that we know so much corruption is occurring in the region. Vice President Biden seemed to condition aid on an extension of CICIG's mandate. That would be one way that Guatemalan political elites could demonstrate their commitment to tackling corruption.

CICIG's mandate was eventually extended but only because they went public about corruption leading all the way up to the vice president's office, if not higher. I'm not sure that is what they had in mind.

Community-based crime and violence prevention success in Central America

The Latin American Public Opinion Project recently released its study on the effectiveness of USAID programs in Central America with USAID’s Community‐Based Crime and Violence Prevention Approach in Central America Found Effective in LAPOP Impact Evaluation. Basically, everything that USAID is doing is effective and should be the foundation for additional US assistance to Central America - not going on a war footing in El Salvador. However, and not surprisingly, not all programs are equally successful.

Specifically, LAPOP found that the approach produced a significant reduction in the level expected of crime victimization and violence and also resulted in a significant increase in the level expected of citizens’ sense of security. Perception of neighborhood insecurity and perception of insecurity when walking alone at night declined more than would be expected without USAID intervention. Levels of satisfaction with police performance and trust in the police have increased significantly over the levels expected in the absence of the treatment. Indirect effects of the programs include strengthening democratic values, which increased significantly over the expected level in the absence of the program.

Following the qualitative and quantitative analyses, they make the following policy recommendations:

Making community‐based crime and violence prevention programs a frontline weapon to improve citizen security is key. So, too, is improving community organizations to address crime and violence.  

Schools and families also play a vital role in decreasing instances of crime and violence. Expanding pre‐school, after‐school, and day‐care access for children living in single‐parent homes would be beneficial. Working with school administrators is important. Continuing to inform administrators and teachers on important issues such as recognizing signs of abuse in children is necessary. Directing more resources to school security, especially in the form of patrols when students enter and leave school, could prove useful both in cutting down violence in the schools and protecting children from gang members who lurk outside the school grounds. Lastly, given the aforementioned positive role of religious organizations, actively partnering with these organizations to support church‐affiliated youth programs is likely to be fruitful.

The situation in Central America often feels overwhelming to me. Just where do you start amidst such poverty, violence, and corruption. However, building upon the successes of previous US AID programs, extending CICIG's mandate in Guatemala (and hopefully considering an extension to the rest of Central America, and some limited immigration reform on the part of the US can bring about an improvement in the quality of life of a significant number of Central Americans.

Two more years! Two more years!

On Thursday afternoon, President Otto Perez Molina agreed to support a two-year extension for the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). Perez Molina's about-face comes after a barrage of domestic and international criticism. Several months ago, Perez Molina said that CICIG would not continue after its mandate expired in September. His public arguments against a renewal of CICIG's mandate would range from the commission violates Guatemalan sovereignty to it's time for the country's political institutions to stand on their own. Two members of the commission responsible for making a recommendation on CICIG's future, had already made their intentions known.  

However, support for CICIG came from around the world (US, UN, European donors, WOLA) and within Guatemala (NGOs, businessmen, the media). Perez Molina still didn't seem convinced. He just became more annoyed. However, the arrests of people closely tied to Perez Molina, Vice President Baldetti, and the Patriotic Party severely weakened his hand. First, CICIG and the Public Ministry moved against Byron Lima and his prison empire. Second, and more recently, they moved against a criminal network involved in defrauding Guatemalans of millions of dollars in taxes.

Audio recordings related to the most recent scandal allude to presidential and vice presidential involvement in the customs fraud. While no charges have been filed against the president, the vice president, or the interior minister, they look dirty at worst and incompetent at best.

CICIG and their Guatemalan partners have done tremendous work in Guatemala. However, even with CICIG's presence, we've still witnessed pretty shady judicial rulings and questionable decisiosn with regards to criminal cases against Giamattei, Portillo, and Efrain Rios Montt, the term of Claudia Paz y Paz, and the selection of the country's high court justices. I am hopeful that two more years of CICIG will result in a transformative experience for the country's judicial institutions, but I am not optimistic.