Year end homicide statistics for Central America

Year end homicide statistics are starting to trickle in and it looks likes a mixed year. The worst performing country was El Salvador where authorities claim that homicides increased by 57% in 2014 compared to the previous year. With 3,912 homicides, the country's homicide rate finished at approximately 63 per 100,000. Given the large number of disappearances, it's not clear if homicides have actually increased or whether gangs are no longer hiding the bodies (that's been one of the anti-truce arguments for awhile). Speaking of the 2012 gang truce, President Salvador Sanchez Ceren admitted that the previous Funes government, of which he served as vice president, negotiated the pact with the gangs.

Honduras remains the most violent country in Central America with a homicide rate in the upper 60s. However, 2014 was a significant improvement over 2013 (79) and 2012 (85). Honduras, El Salvador and Venezuela finished the year with homicide rates higher than Iraq and Syria. Not entirely a big fan of the comparison, but it does give you an indication of how desperate conditions are in those three countries.

Homicides in Belize increased in 2014 and the country finished with a rate of approximately 34, roughly a 20% increase.

On the positive side (?), Guatemala, finished the year with a homicide rate of approximately 31 per 100,000.

data preliminar de @mingobguate indica que terminamos con 4998 homicidios en 2014 = tasa de 31.3 por cada 100 mil habitantes (15.96M a dic.)
— Carlos Mendoza (@camendoza72) January 5, 2015

Carlos uses the National Civil Police's numbers. They measure murders. INACIF, which measures violent deaths, always has higher numbers that the PNC. Fortunately, they also show a decrease. Here is Carlos again with a look at homicide rates since 2009.

van 2 administraciones @GuatemalaGob bajando violencia homicida y data @INACIFGT confirma descenso @PNCdeGuatemala pic.twitter.com/qTIbeXpuqX
— Carlos Mendoza (@camendoza72) January 5, 2015

That's rather impressive, no? It's even pretty close to Colombia's 2014 rate but I'm sure everyone knew that.

Central America remains one of the most violent region's of the world. Maybe I am a bit optimistic that the two more populous countries, Guatemala and Honduras, were able to reduce their homicide rates once again.

Venezuela Divided on Al Jazeera America

As the Venezuelan government faces charges of human rights violations, Fault Lines travels to Caracas to find out what’s really going on in the streets.

A year after President Hugo Chávez’s death, Venezuela is in turmoil—and more polarized than ever. Since February, one wing of the country’s opposition has erected barricades in the streets and fought battles with security forces in an effort to force Chávezs successor, Nicolás Maduro, from power. On the other side of the political divide, government supporters have vowed they’ll do whatever it takes to protect Chávez’s so-called “Bolivarian revolution.” More than 40 people on both sides have been killed in the violence.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan and international human rights organizations are mounting a case against the Maduro government, alleging systemic abuses by security forces—and by pro-government groups known as colectivos.  

As the U.S. Congress debates whether to sanction Venezuelan government officials, Fault Lines travels to Caracas and asks: Is the country in the midst of an authoritarian crackdown, or a clash between people with radically different visions for the future of their country?

“Venezuela Divided” airs June 28th at 7:00p ET on Al Jazeera America.

Mass killing in Central America?

The National Civilian Police in Guatemala recorded 4,881 homicides between January and November 2013. Unfortunately, they have no motive for 2,390 killings (49%) so it makes it really difficult to empirically support many hypotheses regarding violent crime in the country. What I also don't trust in the data is that each killing only falls into a single category. For example, I'm not sure how authorities classified the nine police officers killed in Huehuetenango in June. They had to be placed in either the ignored or revenge category when they could also have fallen under confrontation with the PNC, narco-trafficking, and victims of robbery.

I was only thinking about this because of Jay Ulfelder's post on A Notable Year of the Wrong Kind in which Mexico is the only Latin American country that experienced "mass killing" in 2013. By mass killing, he means "any episode in which the deliberate actions of state agents or other organizations kill at least 1,000 noncombatant civilians from a discrete group." The organizations are probably cartels but I'm not sure if the responsibility is lumped together or broken down by different organizations. I'm also not sure who the discrete group in Mexico is other than civilians but I would probably say "migrants" making their way north to the United States.

Guatemala has suffered between 5,000 and 6,500 murders each year for the last few years, but we don't have exact numbers on who did the killings or who were the victims. Given what we read, one would suspect that gangs, organized crime, and drug traffickers have been responsible for well over 1,000 deaths each year but the PNC's incomplete statistics don't back that up.

El Salvador will "only" experience 2,500 or so murders this year. I suspect that the MS-13 and 18th Street gangs are responsible for at least 1,000 of those deaths but I can't be certain. Honduras will finish the year with over 7,000 murders and a rate over 80 once again but we can't be certain there because the government has stopped sharing homicide statistics. Venezuela will suffer approximately 25,000 murders and finish the year with a murder rate just below 80 per 100,000.

Anybody want to take a crack at which organization/group was responsible for killing over 1,000 members of a specific discrete group in the region in 2013?