Sunday, January 5, 2014

Why do people keeping getting Guatemala murder numbers wrong?

I've seen several references to over 6,000 homicides in Guatemala in 2013. Sorry, it's not really true. INACIF recorded 6,072 violent deaths last year. Its numbers include murders, suicides, and accidental killings. That's an increase over the 6,025 violent deaths of the year before. So they count homicides and other violent deaths not just homicides.

The National Civilian Police, on the other hand, reports homicides. It counted 5,259 murders last year. That was 104 more murders than 2012 but once you account for population estimates, 2013 came out with a lower rate than 2012 - 34.0 to 34.2. It's really the same but the optimist can say it was down. I've also come across different year end numbers from the PNC for 2012 but it is always in the 5100s (5,174 and 5,155).

I have no problems reporting the numbers from INACIF, just stop calling them homicide numbers. But there's nothing really new about getting Guatemala's murder numbers incorrect. Heck, candidate Otto Perez Molina went around the country telling people how he was going to reduce murders from 25 per day down to some other number. That was only 3-4,000 higher than the official homicide numbers.

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