Preliminary homicide numbers in Guatemala and El Salvador

Preliminary homicide statistics are rolling in for Central America. In Guatemala, it looks like they have ended the year with 5,259 murders. That would be 104 more than they ended 2012. I'll wait for Carlos Mendoza to put together year end numbers because Prensa Libre's historical numbers are not consistent with what everyone has been using. It doesn't look like they are using the National Civilian Police's homicide statistics or the Forensic Institute's (INACIF)'s violent death statistics so I don't really know.

Here is a figure on homicide numbers using the PNC's numbers if the 2013 numbers that PL provides is actually from the PNC.

Once you account for the population increase from 2012 to 2013, the rate remains pretty flat but obviously an increase in the total number of homicides is not something that anyone was hoping for. Perhaps the optimist can hang their hat on the fact that the last several weeks of the year were relatively violent free.

In El Salvador, homicides decreased by 104 compared to 2012, ending the year with 2,490. That's pretty impressive given all the talk about the failing gang truce. Now if you want to say that gang are simply hiding the bodies of their victims, which is possible, you need to go back pre-truce and increase those murder numbers as well to account for disappearances. All the numbers will look worse.