However, I am more concerned with ALBA-Petróleos de El Salvador than Ambassador Walker (See this El Faro report) and while the US should not fear a Sanchez Ceren-led government, it should be concerned. I'm not talking crazy concerned like Mr. Abrams, just concerned. There's a lot of uncertainty that will come from an FMLN-Sanchez Ceren administration.
Over the last two decades, what we have referred to as the moderates within the FMLN have been pushed out of the party. In different ways, the moderates on the left pushed for greater internal democracy, a regeneration of leadership, cooperation with pro-democracy businessmen on the right side of the political spectrum, and improved relations with the US. I'm thinking Joaquin Villalobos, Ana Guadalupe, Facundo Guardado and even Hector Silva.
Many moderates on the left eventually returned to work with the current administration (I'd say Salvadoran Ambassador to the US Ruben Zamora might fit here). Some never left because they realized there was nothing for them outside the FMLN (Oscar Ortiz). And some have ended up selling their
As a result, in the mid-2000s, the orthodox wing of the FMLN consolidated its power over the party and reasserted the FMLN's socialist roots with a commitment to establish socialismo cuscatleco no matter how longer it took.
What does that mean in practice? I have no idea. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez was at the height of his power when the FMLN made their re-commitment to socialism and while it was unlikely that they were going to copy his model anyway, there is still just a little more uncertainty what an FMLN government will look like. How much different will the FMLN be when they are no longer the junior partner in the executive branch?
The FMLN also has five years of experience in the executive branch (at least part of it) that has most likely changed their thinking about how to govern the country. How much has their thinking changed compared to 2005 or so when they re-committed themselves to socialism? How much has their thinking changed since May 2009 when they entered the executive branch? How much of Sanchez Ceren's, and Quijano's for that matter, campaign promises will actually become policy? I don't exactly know.
If the FMLN wins, I'd say that we will know a little more about their plans with some of the appointments that they make. While I would expect Manuel Melgar and Jose Luis Merino to show up somewhere in the FMLN-led administration, I would only be worried if they were placed in positions that worked very closely with the US government. It's well-known that the US has problems with these two individuals, no need to antagonize the US. It would be like the US appointing someone like John Negroponte or John Bolton to be US Ambassador to the United Nations. It just sends the wrong signals.
If what I've heard that Oscar Ortiz will somehow oversee domestic security, that would be a good signal. We shall see.
In the meantime, here are several other El Salvador-related links that are worth checking out.
Weekend Elections Part I: El Salvador’s Three-Way Race
The Washington Office on Latin America's Background Information on the Upcoming Elections in El Salvador.
Hector Perla, Jr. and how El Salvador vote should be decided by the people, not U.S. Maybe it's me but I envision economic and social policies under an ARENA-Quijano administration not all that different from what has occurred under Funes. Different, but not all that different.
Tim has several links and Boz thinks that we are looking at second rounds in El Salvador and Costa Rica.
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