The FMLN (CID-Gallup) or ARENA (Mitofsky) will finish first - yeah, thanks

I was recently asked to answered a few questions for the Inter-American Dialogue's Latin American Advisor concerning the upcoming elections in El Salvador.Let's just say that I went unconventional and stressed that regardless of who wins the election, things are unlikely to change dramatically.

Citizens of El Salvador will elect a new president Feb. 2, with Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the candidate of the ruling FMLN party, former president and Unidad candidate Antonio Saca and conservative Arena candidate Norman Quijano currently the top three candidates, according to polls. What issues are driving the race? What is at stake for El Salvador in the election? What distinguishes the candidates from each other, and how would their governments differ from the Funes administration?

Here's my intro

As in past elections, the economy and insecurity are the two key issues. El Salvador has experienced one of the region's slowest rates of economic growth for the last two decades and while economic conditions should improve, growth is likely to be moderate regardless of the next president. The country's homicide rate has decreased significantly as a result of a March 2012 gang truce. However, insecurity remains high and the truce remains unpopular among Salvadorans. No candidate has embraced the truce and its future is in doubt.

The pursuit of corruption allegations against former Arena officials, the pace of transitional justice initiatives, and the reactivation of the mining industry will likely depend upon the ultimate victor.

Click here to read the rest of my response as well as those from Ricardo Cevallos, partner at Consortium Centro America Abogados in El Salvador, Joydeep Mukherji, senior director of Latin American Sovereign Ratings at Standard & Poor's in New York, and Douglas Farah, president of IBI Consultants and senior associate in the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In other news, Tim and Carin Zissis provide their takes on El Salvador's first ever televised presidential debate from Sunday night. I didn't watch the debate but it doesn't sound as if any candidate distinguished himself from the competition in a good or bad way (although Quijano security strategy seems scary to me).



Finally, according to CID-Gallup's most recent poll, the FMLN looks firmly in the lead with 49 percent of the vote. However, this is the first (I think) to have it nearing a first round victory. Mitofsky carried out a poll a few days earlier and actually had ARENA ahead 36 percent to 32 percent. Remember the winning candidate needs to secure 50% of the vote plus 1 (unlike Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua). While the FMLN could definitely win a second round against ARENA or Unidad, I can't imagine that they are looking forward to a one-on-one vote. And I'd still vote against victory in the first round for anybody.

What's driving support for the FMLN? I'd say a candidate who hasn't made many mistakes, a popular president among Salvadorans (but apparently not among those Salvadorans on Twitter), ARENA corruption scandals, a lackluster ARENA candidate, and a former ARENA president running for the presidency on the Unidad ticket. One additional key factor has been the number of historic ARENA supporters switching their support to the FMLN or to Unidad, Salvadoran immigrants in the US, and Salvadoran-American businessmen who have come out in support of Sanchez Ceren and the FMLN. The FMLN needs non-FMLN support and votes.

Why does ARENA still have a chance? An unpopular gang truce supported by the incumbent government and the discovery of a mass grave, an FMLN candidate tied to the more radical wing of the party and to the Latin American left, a slow growth economy, and the government's questionable appointment of public security officials.

Three more weeks to the first round and I'd say that it continues to look like Salvadorans will need two rounds to select their next president.