FMLN dominates first round in El Salvador

When all was said and done yesterday, the FMLN came up just over one percentage point short of a first round victory. The FMLN's Sanchez Ceren captured 48.9 percent of the vote while his primary challenger, ARENA's Norman Quijano, took in 38.95%. Tony Saca finished a distant third with 11.4%.

The US right wing has been very outspoken against Tony Saca. They believed that he was staying in the race to divide the conservative vote and to help the FMLN win. It looks, however, that Tony Saca's continued presence in the race actually forced Sanchez Ceren and Quijano to a second round. While it's difficult to know what would have happened had Saca not run at all, it's hard to imagine that the FMLN would not have been able to pick up enough of his votes to walk away the winner last night.

Boz and El Faro have very good takes on yesterday's election in El Salvador.

I would add that many of us hoped that President Mauricio Funes' 2009 election and five-year term would help mend differences between the ARENA and the FMLN. His moderate left government would reduce the polarization in one of the region's most polarized countries. I'd say that he has failed in that sense (well it might have been my goal not his anyway) especially during the last few weeks with his very personal attacks against former President Francisco Flores and his campaigning on the day before and the day of the vote. The President could have stayed above the fray and been a voice for the people.

The FMLN might be heading down the road to disappointment as well depending on how they negotiate for former ARENA president and Unidad candidate Tony Saca's political support. Everyone seems to believe that he is as dirty as they come but that does not appear to be stopping the FMLN from working out a second round alliance.

I'm pretty sure that the FMLN could defeat ARENA in a second round without Saca but I am not sure that they will want to take that chance. An alliance would probably help much more in the legislative assembly where the FMLN will need GANA to pass legislation. The FMLN will have to be thinking about winning a second round, passing legislation in the assembly, and competing in the 2015 legislative and municipal elections. Does an alliance with Saca demoralize its base? The FMLN seems to have believed that a demoralization of its base was the cause of its poor 2012 performance (remember that vote where ARENA was ready to take on the world?).

Finally, for now, the electoral campaign and the vote demonstrate the strength of many of the country's political institutions, the TSE in particular. While no means perfect, the country's democratic institutions seem to be much stronger than those of its neighbors in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We like to lump the Northern Triangle together but it doesn't always make the best sense.