In 1995, the Guatemalan government was engaged in talks with the URNG in order to end the country's three-decade-plus civil war. Today, the Colombian government is working to end the five decade conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. Both conflicts saw the deaths of over 200,000 citizens killed.
The 1995 elections were a pre-referendum on the negotiated settlement/surrender that would come the next year. While all Guatemalan political parties committed themselves to continuing to pursue peace with the URNG, it was obvious that the path to peace would be much more difficult should the FRG's Alfonso Portillo emerge victorious. Instead, the pro-peace PAN and Alvaro Arzu emerged with a 51 to 49 percent victory and the peace process continued.
One of the reasons why we believe the Guatemalan and Colombia wars lasted so long is that, unlike the Salvadoran conflict, the elites in both countries were against them (See Rettberg 2007). While the Colombia elite is by no means fully behind the peace process, there is greater support from them than there has been in the past. Elements of the military are split as well. There were important relationships between the Guatemalan guerrillas and the country's military at the individual level that I'm not sure exists in Colombia which could prove problematic if/when snags develop.
Unlike the last serious effort at peace in Colombia, the US is behind these negotiations as well. The US and the international community were fully supportive of the peace process in Guatemala, perhaps more than Guatemalans.
The accords were celebrated in Guatemala one year after the 1995 elections. At that point, the URNG turned its attention towards transforming itself into a political party. It was an overwhelming challenge made more difficult by the fact that it had to simultaneously lobby for society to go out and vote in support of constitutional reforms in 1998. Like Guatemala and unlike El Salvador, Colombians will have to approve several aspects of the peace agreement through the ballot box. In Guatemala, the accords failed as the country's elites demagogued the issued and convinced people that their passage would forever divide the country along ethnic lines. In Colombia, it is possible that the pro-peace Santos wins, the accords are signed, and then the people vote against them - just like in Guatemala!
In Guatemala, the weakened guerrillas never seriously considered rearming because of the failed to approve the constitutional reforms or to implement other aspects of the peace accords. I don't know if that would be the case in Colombia where the guerrillas are much stronger than their Guatemalan counterparts.
Finally, with the arrival of victims of the armed conflict at the table in the Colombian negotiations, the situation reminds me to a certain extent with the Guatemalan case where civil society was involved through the Assembly of Civil Society (ASC). The ASC was much more supportive of the Guatemalan guerrillas but the involvement of more than just the rebels, government, military, elite, and international community a la El Salvador is notable.
I lean towards supporting a faulty peace than continued war (I'm a softy at heart). However, I asked someone recently if it was better that Santos lose the election this weekend rather than have him win and then have the peace defeated at the ballot box. Both scenarios are dangerous. While the election is what everyone should be focusing on at this moment, they cannot ignore the groundwork that is going to be needed to convince the Colombian people to go along with the peace, to transform the FARC into a nonviolent political actor, and to help Colombia take one more step towards being the region's most interesting country.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
El Salvador's defense minister investigated for arms trafficking
El Salvador's Attorney General Luis Martinez has launched an investigation into Minister of Defense David Munguia Payes on the alleged charge of arms trafficking. Munguia Payes was a key player in the "Friends of Mauricio" group, the MS-13 / 18th Street gang truce, and overall security policy. Martinez is also investigating Munguia Payes and Raul Mijango on issues related to the gang truce.
I've obviously soured a bit on Munguia Payes but I wasn't expecting arms trafficking allegations. As I wrote in the WPR article, I was disappointed with his continued appointment as Minister of Defense. The US government soured on the general after he facilitated the March 2012 gang truce. I don't know if they had these concerns about arms trafficking but I wouldn't be surprised. While this is a legal issue for the attorney general, President Salvador Sanchez needs to take the offensive here - put the general on desk duty or something before the matter is sorted out.
I've obviously soured a bit on Munguia Payes but I wasn't expecting arms trafficking allegations. As I wrote in the WPR article, I was disappointed with his continued appointment as Minister of Defense. The US government soured on the general after he facilitated the March 2012 gang truce. I don't know if they had these concerns about arms trafficking but I wouldn't be surprised. While this is a legal issue for the attorney general, President Salvador Sanchez needs to take the offensive here - put the general on desk duty or something before the matter is sorted out.
More arrests in Guatemalan anthropologist's murder
On Tuesday, Guatemalan authorities arrested three additional suspects in the 1990 murder of anthropologist Myrna Mack (two men are already serving time). Mack's research involved documenting human rights abuses committed against the country's indigenous. She was stabbed over two dozen times in front of her home in Guatemala City on September 11th.
One of those arrested was a former police officer who led the investigation into Mack's death while details on the other two men were unavailable. However, the Myrna Mack Foundation released a statement indicating that the "arrests are related to the slaying of Jose Merida Escobar, a police investigator who determined the anthropologist's killing had been ordered by the government. Merida Escobar was killed in 1991, shortly after revealing his findings to a court." The police did not address the foundation's description of the arrests.
Like the murder of Bishop Juan Gerardi eight years later, Mack's murder intimidated but did not stop those carrying out investigations into wartime human rights abuses.
In other criminal justice news, Erwin Sperisen was sentenced to life in prison following a trial in Switzerland that found him guilty of participating in the "summary execution and subsequent cover-up of the murder of seven inmates in Guatemala’s Pavón prison in September 2006." The former police chief shot and killed at least one of the victims. Little consolation to Sperisen, but he was found not guilty of executing three prisoners who had escaped another jail one year earlier.
Sperisen should have stayed in Guatemala instead of fleeing to his ancestral homeland. Former presidential candidate Alejandro Giammattei who was also involved in the Pavon murders fled to Honduras. He was arrested and spent ten months in prison before being found not guilty by Judge Carol Patricia Flores. Giammattei then ran for president in 2011 on the CASA ticket winning 1 percent of the vote, a sharp drop from the 17 percent he had captured in 2007.
One of those arrested was a former police officer who led the investigation into Mack's death while details on the other two men were unavailable. However, the Myrna Mack Foundation released a statement indicating that the "arrests are related to the slaying of Jose Merida Escobar, a police investigator who determined the anthropologist's killing had been ordered by the government. Merida Escobar was killed in 1991, shortly after revealing his findings to a court." The police did not address the foundation's description of the arrests.
Like the murder of Bishop Juan Gerardi eight years later, Mack's murder intimidated but did not stop those carrying out investigations into wartime human rights abuses.
In other criminal justice news, Erwin Sperisen was sentenced to life in prison following a trial in Switzerland that found him guilty of participating in the "summary execution and subsequent cover-up of the murder of seven inmates in Guatemala’s Pavón prison in September 2006." The former police chief shot and killed at least one of the victims. Little consolation to Sperisen, but he was found not guilty of executing three prisoners who had escaped another jail one year earlier.
Sperisen should have stayed in Guatemala instead of fleeing to his ancestral homeland. Former presidential candidate Alejandro Giammattei who was also involved in the Pavon murders fled to Honduras. He was arrested and spent ten months in prison before being found not guilty by Judge Carol Patricia Flores. Giammattei then ran for president in 2011 on the CASA ticket winning 1 percent of the vote, a sharp drop from the 17 percent he had captured in 2007.
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