Baldizon leads in run up to September elections

Writing for Bloomberg, Michael McDonald takes a look at recent developments in Guatemala with an eye on the country's presidential elections scheduled for September.

Four months before the vote, a poll released last week by Guatemalan firm ProDatos showed Baldizon leading the field with 30 percent. Former first lady Sandra Torres and Sinibaldi were tied for second with 14.7 percent each. The survey of 1,200 people had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

Guatemala’s next president will oversee a government that has struggled to boost tax revenue that is already one of the lowest in Latin America as a share of gross domestic product and projected to fall further. Fraud and the smuggling of goods costs the government the equivalent of 3.6 percent of GDP, according to Raquel Zelaya, director of Guatemalan think tank ASIES.

“Tax collection morale is as low as the ground,” she said.

Baldizon’s move to name former central bank President Edgar Barquin as his running mate is a positive sign to investors, said Grais-Targow.

“Guatemala has very well-run macroeconomic policy and a very strong central bank,” she said. “Those are things that aren’t going to change.”

 Guatemala's criminal justice system and CICIG continue to face an uphill battle.