Corruption scandal may lead to Otto Perez Molina's ouster

I spoke with David Gagne of Insight Crime on Wednesday afternoon as the most recent corruption scandal was emerging in Guatemala. You can read his take on the developments, as well as a quote from me, in Latest Guatemala Corruption Scandal May End in President's Ouster.

There are likely many factors contributing to the strong public reaction to recent government scandals. But the investigative work of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the Attorney General's Office was surely the spark that lit the fire. "Obviously, everything began with the CICIG investigation. That was the catalyst," Haering said.

Protesters were also able to organize through social networking sites like Twitter, using the hashtag #RenunciaYa (Resign Now) to build support for their cause, according to Marroquin.

With presidential elections in September, the timing of the scandals also likely played an important role. The prospect of more corrupt politicians being swept into office probably fed popular unrest. "The people view the upcoming elections as more of the same... [They see the elections] as another four year sentence of continued corruption," Marroquin noted.

Indeed, Haering believes the current protests have as much to do with systemic corruption and impunity as with the politicians themselves. "I think all of this discontent is not only directed at Perez Molina... It's more the understanding that this is just one more case of how the system works and that the politicians basically prey on the [state] budget," Haering said.

It looks like everyone that David spoke to was on the same page. You can read more of my thoughts in yesterday's Hey! Where did everybody go?

So what's the over/under on how many people will turn out this weekend to demand President Perez Molina's resignation? Turnout will be a key factor in determining whether Perez Molina will survive in office. That is, until the next corruption scandal emerges.