A CICIG for the Northern Triangle

Fulton Armstrong and Héctor Silva on CICIG: Model for Northern Triangle:

Nonetheless, CICIG is nearly universally seen as providing assistance that all three countries of the “Northern Triangle” of Central America need – to foment rule of law, build confidence in justice, and clean up state institutions – and it has achieved reforms when the political will was sustained.  CICIG’s status as an advisory body in support of the government has enabled it to finesse the legal and political need to fully respect sovereignty.  

Honduran and Salvadoran leaders have made statements suggesting openness to the idea but, apparently for different reasons, don’t want independent investigators upsetting the applecart.  Salvadoran President Sánchez Cerén has less to fear from examination of his administration and his predecessor’s record on impunity and organized crime, but he may be concerned that a CICIG-style unit would dangerously aggravate his opponents, who retain intimidating power through many sectors.  The failure to push for CICIG to realize its full potential in Guatemala and for similar mechanisms in El Salvador and Honduras will only slow the sort of reforms the Northern Triangle needs to overcome its political, social, and economic challenges crises.

CICIG was forced upon Guatemalan politics nearly a decade ago after years and years of criticism from the international community and domestic civil society. There's been no equivalent pressure for Honduras and El Salvador to adopt a similar program. In my opinion, CICIG has done a very good job tackling impunity but much work remains to be done. Reducing impunity from 98% to 85% or so means that conditions are still terrible. What's really impressive about CICIG's work is that they have done it on the cheap. $12 million per year is nothing. That's a terrific return on investment.

Extending CICIG to El Salvador in 2009-2010 would have been ideal. A "international" commission could have provided greater legitimacy for investigations launched into organized crime that were linked to previous administrations. Six years into FMLN rule, I'm not sure that the FMLN would come across that clean and, therefore, would be reluctant to call for the creation of a similar commission in El Salvador.

In Honduras, I called for creating a CICIG-type institution there two years ago. My opinion hasn't changed.

Since it is becoming increasingly unlikely that President Obama will get his $1 billion for the Northern Triangle, let's try to $200 million to have CICIG's in all three countries. That'll cover 5 1/2 years of international commissions operating in each country (or maybe one cross-national body).