Year end homicide statistics for Central America

Year end homicide statistics are starting to trickle in and it looks likes a mixed year. The worst performing country was El Salvador where authorities claim that homicides increased by 57% in 2014 compared to the previous year. With 3,912 homicides, the country's homicide rate finished at approximately 63 per 100,000. Given the large number of disappearances, it's not clear if homicides have actually increased or whether gangs are no longer hiding the bodies (that's been one of the anti-truce arguments for awhile). Speaking of the 2012 gang truce, President Salvador Sanchez Ceren admitted that the previous Funes government, of which he served as vice president, negotiated the pact with the gangs.

Honduras remains the most violent country in Central America with a homicide rate in the upper 60s. However, 2014 was a significant improvement over 2013 (79) and 2012 (85). Honduras, El Salvador and Venezuela finished the year with homicide rates higher than Iraq and Syria. Not entirely a big fan of the comparison, but it does give you an indication of how desperate conditions are in those three countries.

Homicides in Belize increased in 2014 and the country finished with a rate of approximately 34, roughly a 20% increase.

On the positive side (?), Guatemala, finished the year with a homicide rate of approximately 31 per 100,000.

data preliminar de @mingobguate indica que terminamos con 4998 homicidios en 2014 = tasa de 31.3 por cada 100 mil habitantes (15.96M a dic.)
— Carlos Mendoza (@camendoza72) January 5, 2015

Carlos uses the National Civil Police's numbers. They measure murders. INACIF, which measures violent deaths, always has higher numbers that the PNC. Fortunately, they also show a decrease. Here is Carlos again with a look at homicide rates since 2009.

van 2 administraciones @GuatemalaGob bajando violencia homicida y data @INACIFGT confirma descenso @PNCdeGuatemala pic.twitter.com/qTIbeXpuqX
— Carlos Mendoza (@camendoza72) January 5, 2015

That's rather impressive, no? It's even pretty close to Colombia's 2014 rate but I'm sure everyone knew that.

Central America remains one of the most violent region's of the world. Maybe I am a bit optimistic that the two more populous countries, Guatemala and Honduras, were able to reduce their homicide rates once again.

Belize murder rate to increase 20% in 2014

With the year nearly over, Belize's murder rate is likely to increase approximately 20% in 2014.

Official statistics compiled up to yesterday show that there have been 120 murders so far for 2014. That is compared to 99 in 2013. That puts Belize's murder rate per hundred thousand at 33.6 - which will still likely put this country in the global top ten for murder rates - except this time closer to ten than one.

The highest one year total in terms of the number of homicides was in 2012 when the country recorded 145. While overall crime increased in 2014, arrests decreased rather significantly.

In terms of homicide rates, Belize will be ahead of Honduras and El Salvador but slightly worse than Guatemala. Given the size of Belize's population, however, I don't think that it is really fare to compare it to neighboring countries with millions of people.

Belize's money laundering regime

Grace Kranstover and Ragini Chatterjee, Research Associates at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, take a look at The State's Secret: Belize's Money Laundering Regime.

Nestled on the northeastern coast of Central America, Belize is often named one of Central America’s most beautiful vacation destinations. With its ornate coral reefs and rainforest, the small English-speaking country has plenty to offer for tourists looking for tropical adventures. Yet, Belize is rapidly becoming known to the international community for attracting many drug trafficking organizations known for transporting marijuana and cocaine into North America. Since the country’s currency is conveniently pegged to the U.S. dollar, Belize also offers nonresidents the opportunity to run offshore accounts. Money laundering has become a prime form of funding for many criminal organizations. As a result, the United States Department of State has recently named Belize one of the world’s “major money laundering countries.”[1]

But it's not just about money laundering. Take a look at what Julie Lopez wrote last year with Organized Crime and Insecurity in Belize. I provided a few comments as well that will show up in Belize's 2013 Freedom in the World Report.

Central American murder rates remain same to slightly lower

With a good end to the year (25% fewer homicides in December), Guatemala ended with a homicide rate nearly the same as as 2012. In 2013, the rate was 34.0 while in 2012 it was 34.2. Guatemala's murder rate is still very high but obviously much lower than the 46 per 100,000 it recorded in 2009.

In neighboring El Salvador, authorities registered 104 fewer homicides in 2013 compared to 2012. It was actually the least violent year since 2003! La Prensa uses 2007 population estimates to illustrate that the murder rate dropped to 43.3 in 2013 but using the 6.2 million population estimate it is 40 per 100,000 - about 30 points lower than 2011 (the year before the gang truce).

Honduras finished the year with a murder rate of 83 per 100,000 which is 2-3 points lower than the last two years. Those numbers are from UNAH.

Given the uncertainty surrounding true homicide numbers and reliable population estimates, I'd be comfortable with saying that there was no change in each country's homicide rate but, if pushed, each country experienced slightly lower rates compared to the previous year.

Belize walks away with the most improvement cutting its homicides from 145 to 99 for a murder rate of 30 (down from 44). There's no doubt about the homicide rate here.

Here is a chart on homicide rates for the four countries since 2000.

Crime down in Belize but corruption is a different story

Crime rates have undergone a particularly significant decline with murders, rapes, robberies, and burglaries all down between January and the end of October 2013. National homicide statistics have fallen 26 percent while Belize City homicides are down over 50 percent.

“That is a huge come-down, but not as significant as the Belize City situation and, of course, in addition to commending the security forces, I make [the] point that Government’s infrastructure program, especially with respect to the Civic Center and Chetumal Street/Lake Independence Boulevard, has succeeded in creating huge employment. That’s as well responsible for the tremendous progress that we are making on the anti-crime front,” Barrow said.

At the same time, Belize has once again been excluded from Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index for the lack of data.

What’s astonishing is that Belize has been excluded from this year’s index, despite the number of scandals—that is, we are told, because government has not submitted any report to the organization. The only other country that has no ranking in the index is Western Sahara. The Chair of Transparency International, Huguette Labelle, has gone on record to say, (Quote) “it is time to stop those who get away with acts of corruption.  The legal loopholes and lack of political will in government facilitate both domestic and cross-border corruption, and call for our intensified efforts to combat the impunity of the corrupt.” (Unquote)

Click here for the latest on Belize's immigration scandal. I wrote about the situation at the end of October as well.