Gearing up for Sunday's election in Panama

The World Politics Review conducted an interview with Orlando Perez about this weekend's elections in Panama.

WPR: What are the major domestic issues at stake in Panama's presidential election?

Orlando J. Pérez: The electoral campaign has been framed around the dynamic of continuity versus change. The government has touted social spending, infrastructure investments and economic growth. The government candidate, Jose Domingo Arias, has campaigned on continuing and expanding President Ricardo Martinelli’s populist policies. The government has spent a significant amount of money on publicity promoting its infrastructure projects, such as a new urban subway system. And it has sought to scare voters about the potential of the opposition reducing—or ending—social programs. 

The opposition has focused on corruption and the president's authoritarian style. Martinelli has been embroiled in several corruption cases involving kickbacks from foreign companies investing in Panama. Politically, Martinelli has sought to dominate the judicial and legislative branches by packing the courts and luring opposition legislators to his coalition with the promise of government investment in their districts. 

Panama's constitution prohibits immediate presidential re-election. However, the nomination of the first lady, Marta Linares de Martinelli, as the vice presidential candidate on the government party's ticket has been seen as a clear sign of the president's desire to remain influential after the elections. Given the likelihood of a very close election, a key question is the extent to which the independence of the Electoral Tribunal will be respected and the outcome accepted by all candidates.

Go read the entire interview (if you are blocked, go though a social media link). You can also read Orlando's guest post on this site from September 2013 when he spoke about many of the ways that Panama has changed over the last two decades.

Central America's not doing so bad

Playa Jaco, Costa Rica

Zach Dyer summarizes the most recent results of Mitofsky approval ratings of Latin American presidents at The Tico Times.Laura Chinchilla picks up the rear with a disastrous 16 percent approval rating, probably worse that what she really deserves but still in the right direction.

El Salvador’s outgoing President Mauricio Funes reported 67 percent support followed by Panama’s Ricardo Martinelli (65 percent) and Guatemala’s Otto Pérez Molina (56 percent).

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega had 49 percent support and former-Honduran President Porfirio Lobo had 38 percent. 

Funes' rating comes from a January poll which helps explain why the FMLN did so well in February's first round presidential election. I do wonder, however, how much (if any) his approval rating dropped between January and early March's second round runoff. Dis his surgery, questions about who was in the car crash, and unrelenting attacks against ARENA bring down his approval rating and hurt the FMLN's chances between round one and round two? Those events probably didn't hurt as much as the chaos in Venezuela, but I just don't know.

I'm surprised that Ortega is doing so "poorly." He lost 17 percentage points since the last poll. There doesn't seem to be anything that explains that much of a drop in such a short period of time.

In Panama, Ricardo Martinelli continues going strong which might bode well for his party's chances in May's presidential election. John Otis has a great overview of Martinelli's Legacy in Latin Trade.

During five years as Panamá’s president, Ricardo Martinelli has forged a reputation for winning ugly.

He favors a bruising, Chris Christie-like governing style. He disdains democratic checks and balances and tried to spy on his political foes. He’s been accused of corruption by his own vice president. Shortly after Martinelli took the oath of office in 2009, the U.S. ambassador to Panamá described him as having “a penchant for bullying and blackmail.”

Yet, Martinelli is leaving office in July with sky-high job approval numbers and a long list of achievements that includes public works mega-projects, Panamá’s promotion in 2010 to investment grade status, and the fastest growing economy in the hemisphere. Supporters portray Martinelli as Panamá’s best chief executive since the country returned to democracy following the 1989 U.S. invasion that ousted dictator Manuel Noriega.

And if you want to get caught up with the May elections, Carin Zissis has a very good update on the divergent poll results for the Americas Society Council of the Americas. The ruling party's candidate, José Domingo Arias, is (statistically) tied in one poll and leading by 7 percentage points in another poll. It's a three-way race with only a plurality needed to win next month.