"He did a lot, he stole a lot."

Today was the first day of summer vacation. Grades had to be submitted by 3pm yesterday afternoon. That's right, Memorial Day. Fortunately, I entered my final grades Sunday night so I got to enjoy the parade and pool on Monday. On day one of summer vacation, I spent an hour and a half in a College of Arts and Sciences Dean's Meeting, three hours completing half of my CITI training so that I am qualified to carry out interviews in San Salvador this summer (just nine more modules to go!), and then some time wishing farewell to some colleagues who will be missed. We have 42 staff members retiring at the end of the week, which is pretty large for an institution our size, and are not sure how many will be replaced.

So here are a few articles from Panama and Nicaragua to get you going today. The Los Angeles Times has In Panama, corruption inquiries grow after president's tenure ends and NPR has Accusations Pile Up Against Panama's Former President. The LA Times article is more extensive and worth a quick look.

Like many, Barria initially supported Martinelli, who won election with 60% of the vote, and thought that because he was already so rich that he would not be tempted to stick his hand into the till. Wrong, Barria and others have now concluded; politics was big business for Martinelli, these critics say.

Martinelli also stacked the courts and other key government institutions in a bid to shield himself from scrutiny and change the constitution to allow him to run for reelection. Although his attempt to make it possible to run for reelection failed, he did handpick his party's candidate, who lost to Juan Carlos Varela, the president now pushing for many of the corruption inquiries.

I guess one of the differences between Martinelli and Guatemala's Perez Molina is that in Martinelli's case, "He did a lot, he stole a lot." There's not much to look at with regards to Perez Molina. The economy continues to grow at ~3.5% per year and the murder rate continues to decline, but he has squandered what I thought was a good opportunity when elected.

And then there is Nicaragua's first lady is a powerful partner of president from the LA Times.

Once a revolutionary poet of modest success, Murillo today is Nicaragua's most powerful woman and, in the opinion of many, essentially a co-president with her husband. The arrangement, opponents say, allows the first couple to consolidate power and wealth and rule the country like a personal fiefdom.

Like Martinelli, the Ortega's get some pass because of economic growth and low rates of violence. However, like Martinelli, that might not last forever.

Former Central American president runs from corruption allegations

Corruption allegations mount against former Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli.

But now Martinelli is being investigated on suspicion of stealing money from a $45-million contract to buy food for schoolchildren as part of a National Action Plan (PAN) against poverty.

- Luxury cars, apartments, yacht -

Investigators also allege corruption on an airport parking lot program and a contract with a tax collection firm.

[President Juan Carlos] Varela says the total stolen during his predecessor's administration is nearly $100 million.

Prosecution documents seen by AFP say that money was used to buy luxury cars, apartments and a yacht.

Several Martinelli allies have already been arrested and it seems only a matter of time before authorities move against Martinelli. In many ways, prosecutors in Panama appear to be pursuing a similar model to that used in Guatemala - go after the small fish before moving on to those at the top of the food chain. While not technically on the run, his whereabouts remain unknown.

His whereabouts are unknown, but he keeps up an active presence on Twitter, where he recently posted a picture of himself with a palm-tree-lined beach in the background, with the caption: "Watching a beautiful sunset with two of my sisters."

He also uses the platform to taunt his successor and former ally, President Juan Carlos Varela, whom he accuses of "politically persecuting" him.

He doesn't seem to be taking the allegations very seriously, arguing instead that it is all a part of a big smear campaign.

Alternatives for Panama's gangs

Carrie Kahn investigates In Panama, Restoring Streets And Reforming Gangs At The Same Time for NPR.

Help them start their own businesses or make them your business partners.

Corruption: It's always a social program, isn't it?

Allegations of corruption plagued Ricardo Martinelli's term as president of Panama. One of President Juan Carlos Varela's first priorities upon taking office last year was to investigate any irregularities that had occurred under his predecessor. On Wednesday, in a unanimous vote, Panama's Supreme Court voted to appoint a special prosecutor to launch a corruption investigation into the former president.

While there have been several allegations over the years, including kickbacks from an Italian military contractor involving Martinelli's family, the special prosecutor in this case only seems to be charged with investigating kickbacks from a government social program, the National Assistance Program. Why a billionaire would need to skim a few million dollars from government coffers is beyond me.

Two former heads of the program, Rafael Guardia and Giacomo Tamburelli, have implicated Martinelli in the scheme to inflate government contracts. Martinelli, meanwhile, is in Guatemala right now where he is attending a meeting of PARLACEN.

It's always a social program, isn't it?

Political Tolerance Declines in Panama

Orlando Perez takes a look at Political Tolerance Declines in Panama in the latest AmericasBarometer Insights.

On December 20, 1989 United States military forces invaded Panama with the stated goal of removing General Manuel Antonio Noriega from power and establishing a democratic regime. Twenty five years later, Panama’s political system has made significant strides toward democracy. Five free and competitive national elections, all won by a candidate representing a party out of power, have solidified the country’s electoral system.

A successful demilitarization process transformed the politicized and powerful Panamanian Defense Forces into a civilian‐controlled national police force. The transfer of the Panama Canal and its successful management by Panamanians established sovereignty over the country’s most important asset. Furthermore, investment in infrastructure projects such as the expansion of the Panama Canal has led to a decade of extraordinary economic growth (see Pérez, 2011).

However, problems such as corruption, weak and inefficient judicial institutions, and unequal distribution of economic growth remain as significant impediments to democratic consolidation. In addition, evidence from the AmericasBarometer indicates that the political culture of democracy in Panama has deteriorated since the invasion.

Political tolerance has decreased rather significantly since 2004 but really nosedived during the Martinelli years. On a zero to 100 scale, where 100 equals the highest level of tolerance, tolerance decreased from 51 to 32. The only country that score lower than Panama is Guatemala.

Overall Central America looks pretty terrible. Each country is in the bottom half of the region in terms of political tolerance with Belize scoring the best at 49.9. Low tolerance is troubling as it means that Panamanians and Central Americans have little tolerance for people and political leaders who hold different political views than them. While sometimes understandable, I won't name names, it is not healthy for democracy.

Twenty-five years after the Panama invasion

From the AP

Former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega is nearly forgotten, languishing in a steamy jungle prison near the interoceanic canal while the country enjoys democracy and economic prosperity a quarter-century after the strongman was toppled by a U.S. military invasion.

The U.S. intervention known as Just Cause began 25 years ago on Saturday, on Dec. 20, 1989, and ended with Noriega's surrender to American drug agents on Jan. 3.

Much has changed in Panama since then, with six consecutive presidents democratically elected in the nation of 3.5 million people. Its economy has become one of the fastest growing in Latin America, rising at an average rate of about 8 percent annually amid a multi-million-dollar real estate and construction boom. The United States peacefully transferred full control of the canal to Panama in 1999.

On Saturday, President Juan Carlos Varela became the first Panamanian leader to attend a ceremony to remember victims of the invasion. He announced the government would form a commission to consider demands put forth by their families, such as declaring the date a national day of mourning.

Panama has clearly come a long way since the US invasion 25 years ago that led to the removal of former strongman Manuel Noriega and the country's transition to democracy. But their remain wounds from the invasion that have not been addressed and wounds from the political and economic development of the last two plus decades that has not benefited all Panamanians equally enough.

You can read what I wrote for Al Jazeera about Panama in A forgotten invasion, a forgotten dictator (2011) and Chipping away at democracy in Nicaragua and Panama (2012) as well as what Orlando Perez wrote on Panama has come a long way Mr. Biden (2013).

Panamanian Supreme Court justice suspended

Like every other recent administration in Central America, there were a number of allegations of corruption and abuse of power during Ricardo Martinelli's presidency - infrastructure spending kickbacks and court packing to name two.

Well, there's some movement in Panama right now to hold one Supreme Court Justice accountable for some unexplained wealth accrued during the last few years.

Alejandro Moncada has for weeks been battling accusations he profited from his ties to the former conservative leader after documents emerged showing he paid mostly in cash for two luxury apartments valued at over $1.7 million. Such properties are seemingly incompatible with Moncada's $120,000 a year salary and don't show up in a sworn affidavit delivered shortly before joining the bench in 2010 in which he declared a 4x4 truck and an expensive watch as his only assets.

As part of the ruling by lawmakers leading an impeachment probe, Moncada's assets were temporarily frozen. He was also ordered to turn over his passport and remain confined to his residence.

Moncada denies any wrongdoing and said he's the victim of a campaign by Martinelli's political foe and successor, President Juan Carlos Varela, to reshape the nine-member high court.

Panama's President Varela sits down for a FP interview

Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela sits down for an interview with Foreign Policy. In it, he answers questions on global (airstrikes against ISIS), regional (immigration, drug trafficking) and national (corruption, organized crime, goals) politics.

FP: How are you going to change Panama?

JCV: My main challenge is to change politics from a business to a service. I want to make sure politics and public life is all about serving the people.

FP: How do you expect to do that?

JCV: By appointing cabinet members and a government that is committed to transparency and honesty. [I want] a government that focuses all of its effort on not worrying about elections but worrying about the problems that affect people every day.

Today we have 65 percent of Panamanian kids graduating from high school. I want to make that 100 percent. So you need to build more schools and to give scholarships to kids that are living in poverty to achieve that goal. 30 to 40 percent of Panamanian homes don't have basic sanitation.

FP: You spoke about that during your campaign.

JCV: Drinking water and sewage -- basic sanitation. I want to accomplish the goal of getting that to 100 percent. We need to impact 300,000 homes. I hope I can get it to 85 or 90 percent in my five-year term.

I wouldn't read too much into a single interview but I did come away impressed. 

Some love for Panama

The BBC's Will Grant has a look at the Crossroads of the Americas with Has Panama weaned itself off drugs and cleaned up?

So has Panama genuinely moved from a "narco-kleptocracy" to a peaceful and orderly democracy in just 25 years?

"It's a difficult question to answer," says Prof Orlando Perez, of Central Michigan University. "Panama's institutional system has certainly improved significantly since 1988. There is no question about that."

The credit-ratings service, Moody's Corporation, agrees. It recently described Panama's institutional strength as 'moderate' - a significant improvement on previous years and on other countries in Central America.

"[Panama] has been a success story," says Panamanian lawyer and political analyst Ebrahim Asvat.

"Since the US invasion, Panama has been able to put all the different pieces in place and try to run a country with democratic institutions and a balance of power between the different branches of government."

That said, democracy and governance in Panama are still far from perfect.

"Where I hesitate is in the question of corruption," says Prof Perez.

"Corruption is still a major problem inside Panama. To some extent it's systemic to the way Panama's economy is structured."

Panama ranks 102 out of 177 countries in the world in terms of corruption. Time to get beyond Noriega.

I just got back from New York so I should return to regular blogging tomorrow. Hope everyone had a good weekend.

Gearing up for Sunday's election in Panama

The World Politics Review conducted an interview with Orlando Perez about this weekend's elections in Panama.

WPR: What are the major domestic issues at stake in Panama's presidential election?

Orlando J. Pérez: The electoral campaign has been framed around the dynamic of continuity versus change. The government has touted social spending, infrastructure investments and economic growth. The government candidate, Jose Domingo Arias, has campaigned on continuing and expanding President Ricardo Martinelli’s populist policies. The government has spent a significant amount of money on publicity promoting its infrastructure projects, such as a new urban subway system. And it has sought to scare voters about the potential of the opposition reducing—or ending—social programs. 

The opposition has focused on corruption and the president's authoritarian style. Martinelli has been embroiled in several corruption cases involving kickbacks from foreign companies investing in Panama. Politically, Martinelli has sought to dominate the judicial and legislative branches by packing the courts and luring opposition legislators to his coalition with the promise of government investment in their districts. 

Panama's constitution prohibits immediate presidential re-election. However, the nomination of the first lady, Marta Linares de Martinelli, as the vice presidential candidate on the government party's ticket has been seen as a clear sign of the president's desire to remain influential after the elections. Given the likelihood of a very close election, a key question is the extent to which the independence of the Electoral Tribunal will be respected and the outcome accepted by all candidates.

Go read the entire interview (if you are blocked, go though a social media link). You can also read Orlando's guest post on this site from September 2013 when he spoke about many of the ways that Panama has changed over the last two decades.

Central America's not doing so bad

Playa Jaco, Costa Rica

Zach Dyer summarizes the most recent results of Mitofsky approval ratings of Latin American presidents at The Tico Times.Laura Chinchilla picks up the rear with a disastrous 16 percent approval rating, probably worse that what she really deserves but still in the right direction.

El Salvador’s outgoing President Mauricio Funes reported 67 percent support followed by Panama’s Ricardo Martinelli (65 percent) and Guatemala’s Otto Pérez Molina (56 percent).

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega had 49 percent support and former-Honduran President Porfirio Lobo had 38 percent. 

Funes' rating comes from a January poll which helps explain why the FMLN did so well in February's first round presidential election. I do wonder, however, how much (if any) his approval rating dropped between January and early March's second round runoff. Dis his surgery, questions about who was in the car crash, and unrelenting attacks against ARENA bring down his approval rating and hurt the FMLN's chances between round one and round two? Those events probably didn't hurt as much as the chaos in Venezuela, but I just don't know.

I'm surprised that Ortega is doing so "poorly." He lost 17 percentage points since the last poll. There doesn't seem to be anything that explains that much of a drop in such a short period of time.

In Panama, Ricardo Martinelli continues going strong which might bode well for his party's chances in May's presidential election. John Otis has a great overview of Martinelli's Legacy in Latin Trade.

During five years as Panamá’s president, Ricardo Martinelli has forged a reputation for winning ugly.

He favors a bruising, Chris Christie-like governing style. He disdains democratic checks and balances and tried to spy on his political foes. He’s been accused of corruption by his own vice president. Shortly after Martinelli took the oath of office in 2009, the U.S. ambassador to Panamá described him as having “a penchant for bullying and blackmail.”

Yet, Martinelli is leaving office in July with sky-high job approval numbers and a long list of achievements that includes public works mega-projects, Panamá’s promotion in 2010 to investment grade status, and the fastest growing economy in the hemisphere. Supporters portray Martinelli as Panamá’s best chief executive since the country returned to democracy following the 1989 U.S. invasion that ousted dictator Manuel Noriega.

And if you want to get caught up with the May elections, Carin Zissis has a very good update on the divergent poll results for the Americas Society Council of the Americas. The ruling party's candidate, José Domingo Arias, is (statistically) tied in one poll and leading by 7 percentage points in another poll. It's a three-way race with only a plurality needed to win next month.

Murder and corruption in Panama

Over 100 police officers accused of criminal activities, including the shooting and killing of unarmed civilians, have avoided prosecution during the current government because of Law 74 (See here, here, here and here.) Human rights advocates have asked for the repeal of Law 74 which protects police from prosecution.

In the meantime, prosecutors are now awaiting a decision to move ahead with homicide trials for twenty-four National Police officers. Several of the accused are on desk duty while others are "under office arrest, similar to house arrest." None of the twenty-four officers are in jail.

Obviously I don't want to overemphasize the implications but a decision to prosecute and convict a number of the accused will go a long way to demonstrating that no one is above the law in Panama.

Panama's Corruption Perceptions Index score from Transparency International recently dropped from 38 in 2012 to 35 in 2013, tied for 102nd in the world.

According to Haley Moncrief with BNamericas

Panama's economic growth and heavy investment in infrastructure projects like its US$5.25bn Panama Canal expansion is attracting investors' attention. The country is also the fastest growing in Latin America, boasting an average annual growth rate of 8.5%, and per capita GDP has more than doubled in the last decade, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Attracting foreign capital and companies has been a main priority of the administration of President Ricardo Martinelli. Yet a daunting and worsening corruption perception could thwart the country's efforts to reel in foreign capital, and taint its growing appeal.

Some of the country's corruption woes include a lack of judicial independence, issues with transparency - particularly regarding availability of Panamanian companies' ownership information - as well as the availability of accounting information regarding entities that do not receive Panamanian-source income.

I'd say that it probably doesn't help that several of the developing corruption scandals are tied directly to the president, members of his family, his administration and his political party. It's tough to see which of the charges are going to stick but the allegations can't help the perception of corruption in Panama.