Nicaraguan Canal Plan Riles Landholders

John Otis has a good article on Nicaragua's building of a new canal to compete with that of Panama for the Wall Street Journal with Nicaraguan Canal Plan Riles Landholders: Sandinista push to build Chinese-led shipping route across country sparks concerns over property rights. Everybody is trying to use the 1980s land reforms to frame their preferred narrative.

    Still, for many here, the expropriation plan recalls one of the most contentious policies of the Sandinista revolution that toppled U.S.-backed dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979.

    Mr. Ortega’s government back then ordered the confiscation of coffee groves, cattle ranches and other properties belonging to Somoza and his cronies. Under an agrarian reform, the government handed out more than 1.5 million acres to peasant farmers. But the Sandinistas also helped themselves to properties belonging to opposition leaders, people who had fled the country or simply those with choice farms.

    Michael Healy Lacayo recalled how the Sandinistas expropriated his family’s 600-acre sugar cane plantation in 1980 for having supplied a mill owned by Somoza. The family eventually recovered the farm, but Mr. Healy said such arbitrary decisions turned many against the Sandinistas.

    “We are worried because we remember the 1980s,” said Mr. Healy, now president of the Nicaraguan Farmers Union, the country’s largest agro-industry group. “It opens a lot of old wounds.”

One paragraph stood out more than the others:

    Octavio Ortega, who has been organizing anticanal protests around the country, said many landowners distrust the project because it has been shrouded in secrecy. He said it was cynical for the developers to base their offers on the assessed tax value, knowing that many property owners lowball this figure to reduce their tax burden.

This sounds so much like the 1952 Agrarian Reform Law in Guatemala. Arbenz and the Guatemalan government offered to compensate landowners for the assessed values of their land. They pretty much said that they were lying about the lands' real value and that they should be paid ten times more. The rest is history.


Nicaragua is all about family relationships. Octavio Ortega is probably not related to President Daniel but I'm not sure about which "Lacayo" to which Michael Healy Lacayo is connected.

"He did a lot, he stole a lot."

Today was the first day of summer vacation. Grades had to be submitted by 3pm yesterday afternoon. That's right, Memorial Day. Fortunately, I entered my final grades Sunday night so I got to enjoy the parade and pool on Monday. On day one of summer vacation, I spent an hour and a half in a College of Arts and Sciences Dean's Meeting, three hours completing half of my CITI training so that I am qualified to carry out interviews in San Salvador this summer (just nine more modules to go!), and then some time wishing farewell to some colleagues who will be missed. We have 42 staff members retiring at the end of the week, which is pretty large for an institution our size, and are not sure how many will be replaced.

So here are a few articles from Panama and Nicaragua to get you going today. The Los Angeles Times has In Panama, corruption inquiries grow after president's tenure ends and NPR has Accusations Pile Up Against Panama's Former President. The LA Times article is more extensive and worth a quick look.

Like many, Barria initially supported Martinelli, who won election with 60% of the vote, and thought that because he was already so rich that he would not be tempted to stick his hand into the till. Wrong, Barria and others have now concluded; politics was big business for Martinelli, these critics say.

Martinelli also stacked the courts and other key government institutions in a bid to shield himself from scrutiny and change the constitution to allow him to run for reelection. Although his attempt to make it possible to run for reelection failed, he did handpick his party's candidate, who lost to Juan Carlos Varela, the president now pushing for many of the corruption inquiries.

I guess one of the differences between Martinelli and Guatemala's Perez Molina is that in Martinelli's case, "He did a lot, he stole a lot." There's not much to look at with regards to Perez Molina. The economy continues to grow at ~3.5% per year and the murder rate continues to decline, but he has squandered what I thought was a good opportunity when elected.

And then there is Nicaragua's first lady is a powerful partner of president from the LA Times.

Once a revolutionary poet of modest success, Murillo today is Nicaragua's most powerful woman and, in the opinion of many, essentially a co-president with her husband. The arrangement, opponents say, allows the first couple to consolidate power and wealth and rule the country like a personal fiefdom.

Like Martinelli, the Ortega's get some pass because of economic growth and low rates of violence. However, like Martinelli, that might not last forever.

Nicaraguans demand action over chronic kidney disease

Photograph: Oswaldo Rivas /Reuters

“I was healthy when I started working for the company and sick when they got rid of me,” said Walter, who asked for his surname to be withheld to protect his relatives, 13 of whom work in sugar cane. “Every family here has lost someone, the work is making us sick, but there are no alternatives,” he said. “We are all dying from it, it’s a total epidemic.”

The exploitation of Nicaragua’s landless rural poor by a handful of wealthy families working with US agribusinesses was one cause of the 1979 uprising against the dictator Anastasio Somoza. The country is now ruled by a former Sandinista revolutionary, President Daniel Ortega, and he faces accusations of abandoning the country’s campesinos in pursuit of a political pact with big business.

Nina Lakhani takes a good look at chronic kidney disease (CKD) with Nicaraguans demand action over illness killing thousands of sugar cane workers, According to Dr Catharina Wesseling, CKD is an occupational disease that “predominantly affects male workers exposed to excessive heat and dehydration – conditions which are most severe in the sugar cane industry."

“Whole families are being wiped out by this illness, we want to be compensated fairly, and make sure every sick worker has access to medical treatment, this is our right. We are disappointed with Commandante Ortega’s government, they have no concern for our health … us ordinary working people have been sold out,” said Juan Rivas. No one from the government met the marchers.

I understand why the US will seek $1 billion to help the Northern Triangle of Central America, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. However, it's somewhat uncomfortable that the increased assistance won't include Nicaragua, the region's poorest country. 

They clearly don't have the gang and cartel violence of their neighbors, nor do they force tens of thousands of their youth into exile. However, they do have the corruption, weak to non-existent democratic institutions, and a general sense of insecurity that we are looking to overcome in the region. Nicaragua could also contribute important knowledge when it comes to various community policing models.

If you believe that increased assistance from the US will deliver intended benefits to the recipients, perhaps it is time to be proactive and include Nicaragua.

You can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them

Tim Rogers (@nicadispatch), Manuel Rueda (@ruedareport), Kevin Gray (@kevinmgray15), and Jared Goyette (@JaredGoyette) take a look at the increasingly controversial investments of China in Latin America with As Chinese Push into Latin America, Nicaraguans Try to Hold the Line for Fusion.

Their report centers upon efforts by Nicaraguans to defend their land against the Ortega government and its Chinese partners to build the region's second interoceanic canal. The canal is unpopular because of its potential environmental and social effects as well as the mysteries surrounding everything about it.

Today, Dec. 10, the residents of Obrajuelo will join thousands of other mostly impoverished Nicaraguans in a nationwide march on Managua to protest the mysterious canal project, which will be built, owned and operated by an enigmatic Chinese billionaire who has only visited Nicaragua three times and still can’t pronounce its name. With groundbreaking only two weeks away, nobody outside a secretive Sandinista-Chinese cabal knows who is paying for the project, how much it will cost, or what the environmental impact will be.

It's a good story that brings attention to China's growing economic interest in the region. However, I am left wondering about the answer to several questions.

While China has been increasing its investments in Latin America for the last several years, it has been doing the same elsewhere in the world, no? Is there something special about China's operations in Latin America?

According to Margaret Myers, the Inter-American Dialogue’s program director for China and Latin America, China's multinationals are no more abusive than any other country's multinationals. Given what I read a few years ago, China had a pretty poor record with its investments in Africa and the Middle East. Have they changed their business practices? Is the difference why they have a better reputation in the Americas (if true) driven by the industries that they are investing in versus those that they invest in in Africa and other parts of the world? Are Chinese business practices in the Americas better because the governments of Latin America require them to be? Chinese involvement in the region isn't at the top of my agenda so maybe these answers are commonly known.

The remainder of the article looks at some of the local push back against Chinese investments in Peru, Ecuador, and, to a much lesser extent in Venezuela (also could have included Costa Rica).

Overall poverty decreases but extreme poverty increases in Nicaragua

According to the Fundación Internacional para el Desafío Económico Global (Fideg), the number of Nicaraguans living in conditions of extreme poverty (less than $1 per day) increased by 2 percentage points (7.6 to 9.5 percent) from 2012 to 2013. However, the number living in "general poverty" (less than $2 per day) decreased by 2 percentage points from 42.7 to 40.5 percent.

According to Fideg, Nicaragua has improved its poverty rate ~1% each year since 2009. That's positive but obviously slower than what is needed as Nicaragua is generally considered the second poorest country in the hemisphere after Haiti.

One of the factors causing extreme poverty to increase, the report said, is a drop in export prices on agricultural goods, primarily coffee. Thousands of temporary workers depend on farming, as do several local economies in Nicaragua.

A drop in schooling and poor education are other factors that have prevented families from escaping extreme poverty, the report said.

We probably won't know for another year but I imagine poverty rates will worsen across Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador as well as a result of roya (coffee rust). It's possible that some other economic development (increased remittances?) will offset the coffee impact but we shall see.

This year, the government earmarked $1.3 billion – more than half its official budget – to finance anti-poverty programs and free health and education services. Venezuelan aid also has helped fund programs for the distribution of roof sheeting, financial credits, low-cost housing and food packages for the poor.

We've already had indications that Nicaragua is suffering from Venezuela's decreased support as well.

Nicaragua's First Billionaire

Bloomberg has the background on Carlos Pellas, Nicaragua's First Billionaire Is Country's Sugar King.

Today, privately held Grupo Pellas runs four sugar mills, produces ethanol and provides the raw material for Pellas’s Flor de Cana brand of rum. The group controls more than 20 companies, with stakes in media, distribution, insurance, citrus, health care and auto dealerships. It boasts $1.5 billion in annual sales -- equal to 13 percent of Nicaragua’s gross domestic product -- and employs some 18,000 people. Carlos, 61, the major shareholder, is Nicaragua’s first billionaire, with an estimated fortune of $1.1 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Being skeptical of businessmen who make their money off sugar and who are able to amass a fortune under Somoza, the Sandinistas, Chamorro, Alemán, Bolaños, and Ortega again, I wish the author had dug just a bit deeper.

You can read the author's August article on Guatemala's first billionaire Mario Lopez Estrada here.

Who's next?

Ernesto Cardenal criticizes Nicaragua's proposed interoceanic canal

From the Tico Times

Nicaraguan writer and Catholic priest Ernesto Cardenal this weekend blasted plans for the construction of a massive interoceanic canal, calling it a “monstrosity” that would split the country in two and irreversibly damage Lake Cocibolca, the biggest freshwater lake in Central America.

Cardenal penned an op-ed column in the local newspaper La Prensa titled “La monstruosidad del canal” – “The monstrosity of the canal” – in which he criticized the favorable conditions that the government of Daniel Ortega granted to Chinese businessman Wang Jing in the canal concession.

“We should denounce to the world what is happening in Nicaragua,” Cardenal wrote, accusing Ortega of imposing the project on the country with “power absolute.”

I can't say that I was totally shocked but at last week's talk at Marquette, I spoke to someone who has been involved in Central America solidarity work for quite some time. I listened to him rail against the Guatemalan government for its repression of indigenous groups in the name of hydroelectric and mining profits. He then criticized the Honduran government and business sector for displacing peasants in the Aguan region in order to plant palm oil. He was proud of solidarity's work in defeating Milwaukee's Commerce Group in El Salvador.

But then he went on and on defending the Nicaraguan government's handling of the proposed canal. It was painful. I'm not an engineer, but I don't know how anyone can deny the likely environmental and societal damage that the proposed canal will have on the people of Nicaragua.

US extends TPS to Nicaragua and Honduras

On Friday, Department of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson extended Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to eligible nationals of Nicaragua and Honduras. TPS was originally granted to Honduras in 1999 and to Nicaragua in 2001. As a result, thousands of their citizens were provided with work permits and legal documents to remain in the United States even though their papers had expired or they had never received any.

As I wrote in 2011, the US probably won't be ending TPS to Salvadorans, Nicaraguans, or Hondurans anytime soon. All of the people eligible for TPS have been in the country for over a decade. It doesn't make sense to make them go "home." For many, this is their home. I also wrote that the administration should start thinking about how to transition these people to some form of permanent legal status. However, it's now time to move beyond thinking about it and to act on it.

Unfortunately, other than increasing the number of deportations, President Obama doesn't really seem to be concerned with the crisis affecting millions of precariously documented and undocumented migrants in our country. Or maybe he cares and just doesn't think that it is a politically winning strategy to care. We'll learn more after the November elections apparently.

Renewing the Nicaragua Tariff Preference Level (TPL)

As I mentioned the other day, you generally don't tend to hear praise of CAFTA-DR unless is you are speaking about Nicaragua. Praise might be too strong of a work but you do read more positives about the effects of CAFTA-DR there than in the Northern Triangle or the other member states of CAFTA-DR.

One of the reasons is that Nicaragua qualifies for some additional support because of its impoverishment. One of the extra bonuses that the country receives is the Nicaragua Tariff Preference Level (TPL) which "allows a limited number of Nicaraguan-made garments to enter the United States duty free without regard to the source of the fabrics." The US and Nicaragua also have a fabric matching program that benefits workers, businesses and consumers (presumably) in both countries.

As a result, trade in apparel between the US and Nicaragua has increased since CAFTA-DR went into effect while it has decreased between the US and every other member of CAFTA-DR. The program is set to expire at the end of this year which would be a shame if the benefits that the op-ed cites are true. It seems like a program that the US and Nicaraguan governments should consider extending and that the US should consider expanding to other countries in the region. Obviously, doing so would probably disadvantage Nicaragua and might even water down the benefits to everybody to such an extent that perhaps the current single-country model is the best..

Don't forget about Nicaragua

While everyone's attention is on the Northern Triangle and the immigration challenge between those countries and the US, let's see what people are saying about Nicaragua.

First, we have two articles that cover the 35th anniversary of the Sandinista Revolution. David Broddiger and The Tico Times start it off with 35 years after Somoza's overthrow, not much for Nicaragua to celebrate. Growing intolerance, dissatisfaction with Nicaraguan democracy, authoritarian tendencies of Somoza, lack of spending on students, low wages, and the creation of a new multimillionaire club.

Rose Spalding also looks at the July 19th Anniversary and the New Nicaragua for the AULA Blog. Spalding focuses on the relationship between Ortega and COSEP (the business community) - :Even as the government-business relationship warms and the economy grows, these social and political concerns continue to bedevil the country."

Ortega's been moving in on the non-partisan and highly respected military as well.

While Sandinista supporters were returning from the July 19th celebrations, two buses were attacked by small heavily armed groups - The Return of the Contras? Massacre of Sandinistas Stirs Old Ghosts in Nicaragua.

Finally, there is a bit of a dueling narrative on why Nicaraguans are not fleeing towards the US like its neighbors. CATO's Alex Nowrasteh and NicaNet have the positive reasons while Sergio Ramirez focuses on Costa Rica where 10 percent of the population are of Nicaraguan descent.

Nicaragua has a lot going for it compared to its Northern Triangle neighbors right now but there are a number of signs that do not bode well for its future.

The Irish are coming....to Nicaragua

Helping hand: a Sandinista picks coffee with a farm worker in 1986. Photograph: Cindy Karp/Time & Life Pictures/Getty

The Irish Times is running a series on the Irish who traveled to Nicaragua during the 1980s to support the Sandinistas revolution. Here's an excerpt from The coffee-picking Irish.

The Irish brigades had one unexpected advantage over the others, says Circles Robinson. “The idea of there being a war wasn’t so strange to the Irish, and this made it easier for them to adapt. Those [Irish] brigades stood out as not being very demanding. They were satisfied with the conditions and with doing their best.”

There seems to be a consensus among those who dealt with them that the true value of the Irish effort lay outside coffee picking. Thomson says brigadistas went home with a much deeper commitment to Nicaragua.

“The idea was they would go back and work much better within solidarity than they had done before. Maybe they came only out of interest, but when they went back a lot of them worked for quite a while in solidarity.”

 And here is another piece with individual stories of those who traveled to Central America with ‘What I learned was personal, not political.’ Here's one story from Gerry McGrath, Dublin-based solicitor, who traveled to Nicaragua in 1989.

“What I learned was personal, not political: live in a hut with 30 people for a month and learn to be tolerant or you will explode. I didn’t find it particularly difficult, [as I was] very fit and healthy. There was a lot of gunfire at night, which was worrying if you dwelt on it. “I think the revolution was waning by that stage: people were weary of war. Our contribution [was] marginal. We contributed a lot to the people of the small UPE [state production unit] where we worked, but then we went off and left them. “I don’t know what propaganda value the Sandinista government got from us. It was harder for the US to bomb the place when we were there.”

The successful efforts of the brigadistas shouldn't be measured in the amount of coffee picked. They trips were more designed to promote global solidarity with individual Nicaraguans and the Sandinista revolution. They also had the added benefit of making it less likely that the Contras would bomb the cooperatives on which they were working.

Central America's not doing so bad

Playa Jaco, Costa Rica

Zach Dyer summarizes the most recent results of Mitofsky approval ratings of Latin American presidents at The Tico Times.Laura Chinchilla picks up the rear with a disastrous 16 percent approval rating, probably worse that what she really deserves but still in the right direction.

El Salvador’s outgoing President Mauricio Funes reported 67 percent support followed by Panama’s Ricardo Martinelli (65 percent) and Guatemala’s Otto Pérez Molina (56 percent).

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega had 49 percent support and former-Honduran President Porfirio Lobo had 38 percent. 

Funes' rating comes from a January poll which helps explain why the FMLN did so well in February's first round presidential election. I do wonder, however, how much (if any) his approval rating dropped between January and early March's second round runoff. Dis his surgery, questions about who was in the car crash, and unrelenting attacks against ARENA bring down his approval rating and hurt the FMLN's chances between round one and round two? Those events probably didn't hurt as much as the chaos in Venezuela, but I just don't know.

I'm surprised that Ortega is doing so "poorly." He lost 17 percentage points since the last poll. There doesn't seem to be anything that explains that much of a drop in such a short period of time.

In Panama, Ricardo Martinelli continues going strong which might bode well for his party's chances in May's presidential election. John Otis has a great overview of Martinelli's Legacy in Latin Trade.

During five years as Panamá’s president, Ricardo Martinelli has forged a reputation for winning ugly.

He favors a bruising, Chris Christie-like governing style. He disdains democratic checks and balances and tried to spy on his political foes. He’s been accused of corruption by his own vice president. Shortly after Martinelli took the oath of office in 2009, the U.S. ambassador to Panamá described him as having “a penchant for bullying and blackmail.”

Yet, Martinelli is leaving office in July with sky-high job approval numbers and a long list of achievements that includes public works mega-projects, Panamá’s promotion in 2010 to investment grade status, and the fastest growing economy in the hemisphere. Supporters portray Martinelli as Panamá’s best chief executive since the country returned to democracy following the 1989 U.S. invasion that ousted dictator Manuel Noriega.

And if you want to get caught up with the May elections, Carin Zissis has a very good update on the divergent poll results for the Americas Society Council of the Americas. The ruling party's candidate, José Domingo Arias, is (statistically) tied in one poll and leading by 7 percentage points in another poll. It's a three-way race with only a plurality needed to win next month.

Daniel Ortega: we love our tyrants

Nicaragua's done a number of good things to improve its image in the region and around the world in recent years. But it does not look like Daniel Ortega's embrace of dictators and tyrants will ever change. From Tim Rogers at the Nicaragua Dispatch:

But kidding aside, the Sandinistas’ repeated defense of anti-democratic regimes and its sadly servile relationship with Russia and Venezuela is an embarrassment that’s harmful to the country’s standing in the world. Not only is it bad PR to pal around with international outcasts, it’s also an inaccurate representation of the open, embracing and western-friendly country that Nicaragua has become.

If you were to have visited Nicaragua this week, you would have seen U.S. tourists, Canadian backpackers and European expats. You would not have seen any goose-stepping North Korean tourists, Syrian surfers, or South Ossetian investors. If you looked really hard you would have seen the only Russian tourists visiting the country: a small and disheveled-looking delegation from the Duma, whose visit got way more play in the official media than it deserved.

Nicaragua — in many ways — is a country that’s coming into its own. It’s growing slowly but surely into a maturing destination for tourism and foreign investment. The Nicaragua brand name is now starting to be associated with good things, not just war, poverty and severe dysfunction. Sandinista handlers needs to do more to encourage those positive changes, rather than risking it all by palling around with the nutjobs of the world.

Instead of glad-handing with glassy-eyed Russians and blowhard Bolivarian basket cases, or courting meaningless friendships with obscure breakaway Georgian republics whose names I have to google every time I write about them, the Sandinista government should do more to improve relations with its immediate neighbors in Central America and other nations whose friendships actually contribute to Nicaragua’s growth and wellbeing. Nicaragua should also do more to reach out to the truly progressive and prosperous countries in Latin America, such as Uruguay, Brazil and Chile.

Nicaragua needs to look in the mirror and remind itself that it has a lot to offer the world. The country is a natural beauty, full of innovative, intelligent, industrious and friendly people. Nicaragua deserves to have better friends — and it certainly has no excuse to continue hanging out down by the train tracks with all the international misfits, pipeheads and crackpots.

Daniel and the Sandinistas liked to proclaim a non-aligned foreign policy in the 1980s even though they appear to have felt more comfortable in the socialist camp. And, today, even with all the important changes, they still appear to be more comfortable, at least when in comes to world affairs, in the non-democratic camp. A non-aligned foreign policy (?) in support of some of the world's worst regimes continues to be a black mark on the Sandinista record.

American Dad on Oliver North and Iran Contra in 1:50 seconds

So tonight we are discussing Nicaragua during the 1980s - the revolution, the counter-revolution, the Iran-Contra affair, and the Anti-Contra-War campaign in the US.

And American Dad no less!

Douglas Farah on the state of US-Central American relations

Douglas Farah has an opinion piece on US-Central America relations and the gang truce in El Salvador. In the Loss of Central America’s Northern Triangle, Farah  argues that the gang truce has only served to strengthen the maras and to make a mockery out of the country's rule of law. What I don't entirely understand is his conclusion.

These options are emblematic of the Hobbesian choices facing most countries in Central America. None of the leaders of the Northern Triangle are offering new thinking on how to tackle the multiple, complex problems in the region. The reality is that the host of factors driving the violence and the hollowing out of the states can only be tackled at a regional level. Each individual country is too small, too insular and too poor to do much on its own.

The United States must engage with the region as a whole, both out of self-interest and the interests of those in the region seeking a new paradigm that moves beyond transactional politics of corruption and violence to rule of law, economic freedom and transparency. Yet, the U.S. cannot want change more than the Central American governments do, nor can it help when the elites — both the traditional and emerging groups — do not view real reform as in their self-interest. Policy options are limited and complex, but the crisis is growing quickly.

I get that the United States needs to engage the countries of Central America at the regional level but I am not sure how he envisions that to be any different than today. In addition to all the bilateral programs, the US and Central America engage through the Central American Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) and the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). Perhaps region-wide partnerships for growth, millennium challenge compacts, and commissions against impunity will do the trick but I'm not exactly sure.

Farah rightly characterizes US frustration with the region as well which I wrote about last year. It's not easy for the US to approach Central America at the regional level when the countries are led by Otto Perez Molina, Juan Hernandez, Daniel Ortega, and Funes (to be replaced by either Sanchez Ceren or Quijano). And then you can thrown in Martinelli and Chinchilla.

However, I'm not sure what he means by

That hope is gone, replaced by deep cynicism and dismay that governments of both the right and the left immediately sought to turn their countries into piñatas in which only a few on either side benefited. The far left and far right, after decades of blood letting, found they could make money together while their countries entered into downward spirals of impunity, violence and massive corruption.

He's writing about the Northern Triangle (Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras) but the only country that fits this description is Nicaragua. It's definitely not Honduras and Guatemala. The far left has very little power, especially wealth, in either country. In El Salvador, it is possible that the far left enters into some sort of arrangement to weaken and loot the state but I wouldn't say that they are there yet. And it is probably the country with the least citizen cynicism and dismay where the alliance is strongest. Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua has the most support of any of the region's president although that might change with the next constitutional reforms.

There's more but you get the gist. Now time to prep for my 1:00 PM class on Comparative Civil Wars.

Francisco Flores tries to pull an Alfonso Portillo

I apologize for the light blogging this week but it is the last week of the intersession course that I am teaching on September 11, 2001 and Beyond. I received paper drafts on Monday and returned them on Tuesday. Then students took an exam yesterday which I am still grading. Finals papers are due tomorrow. So what is going on:

The left is strengthening in El Salvador and Costa Rica days before the people of each country go to the polls. Both countries appear headed to runoffs but it is possible, especially in El Salvador, that the FMLN could eke out a first round victory.

In Guatemala, former Interior vice minister and current secretary of Communication of the Presidency Francisco Cuevas is asking for an investigation into former president Alvaro Colom. Cuevas alleges that Colom obstructed an investigation into a high-level functionary accused of leading a group of assassins while in office. Meanwhile, President Perez Molina dropped his suit against Jose Ruben Zamora but Vice President Roxanna Baldetti hasn't moved quite so quickly.

In Nicaragua, nobody wanted Rosario Murillo to be president so they have agreed to change the constitution in order to eliminate term limits and to eliminate the requirement that the winning candidate capture greater than 35 percent of the national vote. See The Pan-American Post for more details.

Boz takes a look at Latin America in last night's State of the Union address.

Finally, former ARENA President Francisco Flores tried to flee El Salvador yesterday morning. It looks like he wanted to avoid going before the Legislative Assembly once again. He has not been very effective at explaining where the $10 - 15 million dollars from Taiwan went. His ARENA colleagues appear to have abandoned him which isn't that surprising given that his response to the money given to him from Taiwan was nothing new and that previous ARENA president had received similar donations.

That evil Ortega who is popular just like that evil Somoza

Some opposition members fear that the Ortega's are becoming like new Somozas in Nicaragua. While the alleged corruption and concentration of power is troublesome, the comparison seems a bit silly. It's like comparing today's FMLN to the guerrilla organization that took up arms against the military regime or to the death squads that morphed into ARENA which then morphed into today's right in El Salvador.

There's a bit of truth to each but the comparisons probably obscure more than they enlighten. Even though some people are still fighting it, the Cold War has been over for nearly twenty-five years.

Anyway, the feared Ortega is supported by the poor, women, and rich businessmen (ya know, just like Somoza). And a recent survey has him nearly more popular than ever.

The survey, which collected data from face-to-face polling of 1,600 Nicaraguans across the country, shows Ortega still has a 65% approval rating among all voters. Those who identify as Sandinistas support the president with an 82% approval rating, but his approval ratings are also high among independents (44%) and members of the opposition (30%). 

The poll shows that Ortega’s approval ratings have not changed significantly over the past year, and remain remarkably improved from four or five years ago. At the end of 2009, Ortega’s approval rating among all Nicaraguans was less than half (25.8%), while only 7% of independents and 2% of the opposition supported the president. Since then Ortega has elevated his approval ratings among all demographics, including Sandinistas. 

The poll also shows solid support for the president’s social programs, especially among Sandinista party sympathizers who have benefited to greater extent from the government handouts, according to the survey results. 

Now just because he is popular doesn't mean that he is governing in a way that is consistent with the democratic rules of the game or that what he and his wife are doing today are not going to hurt in the long run.

Daniel Ortega: I'd be happy to throw in my first-born child as well

Look I hope that the proposed canal through Nicaragua works out well for the Nicaraguan people - minimal environmental damage, good jobs, increased revenue, and all that other stuff. I have my doubts but I hope that if they do go forward with the project it will succeed.

And I understand that the Nicaraguan government needs to offer some incentives to investors in order to go forward with the project but have you taken a look at what the government is offering?

After three days of discussion in June, the National Assembly controlled by Ortega’s Sandinista party approved giving Beijing-based telecommunications CEO Wang Jing a 50-year renewable concession to build a canal more than three times the length of the Panama Canal, as well as tax-free side projects including ports on Nicaragua’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts, an oil pipeline bisecting the country, a cargo railway, two free-trade zones and an international airport.

The deal pays Nicaragua $10 million a year for 10 years and gradually transfers ownership to Nicaragua, handing over 100 percent after a century. But the payments and the transfer only begin if and when the canal begins operation. Under the agreement, Wang can skip building the canal altogether but plow ahead with the other projects.

....

The legislation allows Wang to petition the state to confiscate any land needed. It requires him to pay owners the assessed value, but much of the property outside major cities has never been officially assessed, risking what private businesses fear could be a land grab for pennies on the dollar.

Nicaragua is required to compensate Wang for legal changes that delay the canal or cause it to lose money. Compensation can come from state coffers, including the reserves of the central bank, under a waiver of Nicaragua’s sovereign immunity.

On the one hand, I imagine that these tasty concessions are the sort that US investors receive moving into new countries that are desperate for foreign direct investment. On the other hand, could you imagine the outrage in this case if the investor were US-based?

New Central American guerrillas and paramilitaries?

Is anybody worried about the emergence of these groups?

We have the “Patrulla 1856” and “Frente Patriotico para la Defensa Nacional” militias in Costa Rica.

Then there is the emergence of armed groups in Nicaragua which isn't entirely new - we've already seen Recompas  and Recontras. However, last week's shootout involving an armed group and the police which led to the deaths of ten people seems to have escalated the seriousness of the situation.

Last year we had news on the emergence of a new guerrilla group in El Salvador.

Just throwing the question out there.

Excitement all around Central America

Sorry about the lack of updates. I had a busy week with classes (in-class simulations on global climate change and international terrorism and grading) and I've been trying to catch up on non-class related projects including a book review, an Al Jazeera op-ed and Education for Justice programming.

I had hoped to get a Honduras piece together but so much had already been written - I wasn't sure how much I would be able to add to this weekend's election. I hope to have something together after the vote.

There's been so much going on in Central America that it's difficult to keep track. In addition to this weekend's election, Vice President Biden visited Panama. Is anyone following the (alleged) scandal involving President Martinelli and family receiving kickbacks from Italian contractors to bid on Panama projects (prisons, the Metro)? Any idea if it came up on the Biden trip?

In El Salvador, President Funes, the FMLN and the wheels of justice look like they are finally moving against former administration officials - there are ongoing investigations into Tony Saca, Francisco Flores and a number of other ARENA officials going back over a decade. Unfortunately, the investigations have the air of politicization given that there are less than three months remaining before February's presidential elections. However, these investigations are exactly what we expected following twenty years of ARENA rule. Nothing really against ARENA, but twenty years of uninterrupted rule by any single political party is likely to lead to a good amount of corruption.

And then there's Daniel Ortega's move to strengthen the presidency in Nicaragua nearly fifteen years after he colluded with Arnoldo Aleman to weaken the presidency. Does anyone know whether the specific reforms are intended to undo the previous pact?

I'll probably get around to some of these issues in the future (when classes are over and grades submitted) but at that point, I am going to have to work on the September 11, 2001 and Beyond course that I am teaching during the January intersession.

Have a good weekend and stay warm.