Historic day as Francisco Flores is indicted on corruption charges and is now a wanted man

El Salvador's FGR, Luis Martinez, filed charges against former President Francisco Flores on Wednesday alleging embezzlement and other corruption charges (illicit enrichment and civil disobedience) related to the "misappropriation of at least $5.3 million in loans from Taiwan during his tenure." Flores has been summoned to a court hearing on Friday but given that he hasn't been seen in quite some time, I'm not sure if he is really expected to attend (New York Times, FMLN USA ). These charges sound like just the tip of the iceberg as the embezzlement of cash could go into the millions.

When asked what was likely to happen should the FMLN or ARENA win the March elections, I ventured to guess not much different. There was a lot of political talk during the campaign (security) and there were many structural constraints that were likely to confront the next government regardless of whether it was Sanchez Ceren or Quijano. Maybe I was a little more status quo than I should have been. However, one area where I thought that the election would really have an impact was on whether corruption investigations against ARENA and former ARENA officials would continue - LaGeo, Monsenor Romero Boulevard, and Flores. I just didn't see the new administration moving forward with the same intensity as an FMLN administration. Not that Martinez is FMLN anyway.

For all the problems in El Salvador's justice system, today is a historic day as former head of state Francisco Flores is indicted on corruption charges and is now a wanted man.

Guatemalan elites show their true colors...once again

What does one do after Judge Jasmin Barrios oversees some of the most important convictions (Gerardi, Dos Erres, and, at least for some time, Efrain Rios Montt) in Guatemala's history? The country's bar association suspends her (apparently now modified to a private reprimand).

What does one do after Claudia Paz y Paz oversees tremendous progress in the attorney general's office and the application of justice in Guatemala including a significant increase in prosecutions and convictions and a significant decrease in homicides? You cut short her term of course. What then happens when she gets the second highest score in an evaluation of those postulating to be the next attorney general? She doesn't even make the top six candidates recommended for the job.

Hopefully, the next attorney general does as good of a job, or even better, as Paz y Paz. The criminal justice system needs to be built on more than one or two people. However, the recent attacks against Barrios and Paz y Paz demonstrate once again that the country's political and economic elite are not interested in serious institutional reforms that would threaten their entrenched interests.

Have we "really upped the game on human rights" or haven't we?

I sometimes feel sympathy for the Guatemalan government. Here is some of what Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said during his recent trip to Guatemala, the first for a US Secretary of Defense since 2005.

“He has a reputation for reaching out to the people,” the secretary said. “I asked him how often he gets outside of Guatemala City, and he said he goes somewhere in the country every Friday and Saturday.”

Molina “has really upped the game on human rights down there,” Hagel said of what he characterized as “a country that used to be in a lot of trouble.”

He added, “Through some courageous, visionary leadership they have really pulled themselves up” from human rights abuses.

 

@adam_wola SecDef must say nice things but wish he didn't use phrases that made him sound naive & might've endangered human rights defenders
— Mike Allison (@CentAmPolMike) April 28, 2014

Given how bad 2013 turned out and how rough 2014 has started, the Secretary of Defense should have found other ways to complement the Guatemalan president and the progress that the country has demonstrated.

But what should he and the Guatemalan people really think when at the same time the Secretary Hagel is congratulating Otto Perez Molina and the government (without lifting the military ban), the US Trade Representative Michael Forman has announced unsatisfactory progress in the Guatemalan government's effort to protect worker's rights.

United States Trade Representative Michael Froman today announced that the dispute settlement process in the 2011 labor enforcement case brought under the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) will not be terminated and will remain suspended for an additional four months as the United States seeks further progress by Guatemala on its labor obligations under the CAFTA-DR. 

Ambassador Froman recognized steps taken by Guatemala under the 2013 Enforcement Plan, but noted that the United States has not seen sufficient progress to close the case. 

“Today’s action recognizes the progress made in Guatemala to adopt reforms to improve labor law enforcement, but also recognizes that significant work remains.” Ambassador Froman said.  “We will continue to work closely with the Guatemalan Government in these next four months to review the steps taken and assess whether the reforms are leading to concrete improvements in Guatemalan workers’ rights.”

It obviously doesn't serve the interests of the US or Guatemala if the different US agencies are not on the same page. Not always the easiest but...

Is the Barrio 18 spoiling the gang truce in El Salvador?

According to Geoffrey Ramsey of The Pan-American Post,

After months of escalating violence, El Salvador’s shaky gang truce has finally collapsed. At least according to outgoing Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes, who announced in his radio show over the weekend that it had been broken by members of the Barrio 18 street gang. And while the president said the truce was in a certain “fragile” state that may be re-launched, he said he would announce a “contingency plan” to coordinate security with President-elect Salvador Sanchez Ceren. 

According to President Funes, it turns out the one faction of the Barrio 18 street gang has broken the truce - either the Revolutionaries or the Southerners - but he does not say. Obviously not the same, but we do know from the study of civil war that negotiated settlements are less likely to be reached and to break down when there are greater numbers of factions fighting in a country. The factions can end up fighting each other as much as they are fighting the central government. When the truce first began, there was surprise at how organizationally coherent the MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs were. Imprisoned leaders put an end to the killings almost overnight. That is a reason why people were much more skeptical about the Honduran gang truce where the gangs are believed to be much more fragmented.

We also have a pretty rich literature on the role of spoilers in peace processes which in some ways the gang truce reflects. There are almost always groups that find it in their best interest to continue fighting rather than to negotiate. If not dealt with somehow, perhaps a third party enforcer, these spoilers can destroy a peace process. Can the national government and the gang factions who want the truce to succeed (if there are any) work together to isolate the spoiler? I'm pretty sure I wrote this earlier as well but here is what I wrote in July 2013.

I'll stick with my take that the truce was a good choice by the government in order to lower the violence and to give itself an opportunity to reorient its approach away from mano dura and towards a more comprehensive approach to the gang challenge. The government also needed to try to get as many gang members out with the full realization that many are going to return to that lifestyle. When that happens, they needed to avoid condemning all those who had been at one point involved in the gang. If some go back to the crazy life, don't implement policies that ensure everyone does. Given the truce is failing memo that spread at the beginning of the month, I'm not sure that any of this has happened.

While spoilers and rebel fragmentation are big in the civil wars literature today, they haven't been addressed too much in the study of the Central American revolutionary wars. Alberto Martin and I have a paper that looks at fragmentation in the FMLN and I am working on others related to the URNG and to the FMLN/FSLN/URNG. And with regards to spoilers, that has really gotten any solid attention. For the Central American wars, there don't appear to have been any spoilers on the guerrilla sides that strategically sought to derail negotiations. However, I can think of factions within the Guatemalan and Salvadoran militaries as working as spoilers - think of the rumblings of coups in the late 1980s/early 1990s. The US helped put an end to those spoiler attempts.

And some people thought this was going away after the elections

According to the BBC, more troubling information is coming to light against former president of El Salvador, ARENA's Francisco Flores.

El Salvador President Mauricio Funes has said there is new incriminating evidence against former President Florencio Flores, who is facing corruption allegations.

Mr Funes said prosecutors in Costa Rica found bank accounts in the name of Mr Flores.

The former president had denied under oath having any accounts abroad.

The government accuses Mr Flores, who governed between 1999 and 2004, of misusing funds donated by Taiwan.

Mr Flores told a congressional panel in January that he had received cheques worth $10m (£6.5m) from Taiwan during the last two years of his presidency.

But Mr Flores denied the funds were for his personal use. He said Taiwan donated the money to El Salvador.

"I would like to say that I have never deposited a cheque from Taiwan's government in any account; that is key for me, to make clear that I have never deposited a cheque from Taiwan's government in any account," Mr Flores told the congressional panel set up to trace the money.

But Mr Funes said that Costa Rica "will send the documents of the Flores case" this week.

"According to Costa Rican Attorney General [Jorge Chavarria] there are bank accounts in the name of President Flores in Costa Rica," said Mr Funes in his radio programme, Conversando con el Presidente.

Former Guatemalan President Alfonso Portillo is serving time in the US for corruption-related crimes involving cash payoffs from the government of Taiwan. Francisco Flores looks to have done the same. Given some of the statements made by Portillo and Flores, they are probably not the only heads of state in Central America to have received kickbacks from Taiwan or simply pocketed donations meant for their citizens.

If Flores is charged and convicted in El Salvador, what's the likelihood that we will see other former heads of state cut deals to avoid the same sort of criminal investigation and prosecution? Is the likelihood that they will be investigated and prosecuted still so low that they will play the odds?

Two largest importers of Guatemalan sugarcane? One I guessed

Every so often we read a story of Korean nationals being the victims of crime or owners of troubled businesses in Guatemala. I can't say that I ever thought too much about the subject but The Korea Times has an interesting story on its nationals' operations in Guatemala. Apparently, a large number of Koreans moved to Guatemala in the 1980s to participate in the "textile boom" and now over 8,000 Koreans currently reside there.

Guatemala has been viewed by Korean investors as one of the best countries to operate textile businesses due to its geographical proximity to the U.S. market and cheap labor.

Recently, however, some industry observers have voiced concern over a triple whammy facing Korean textile companies there, namely rising wages, the scrapping of tax benefits and a decrease of demand for garments in the United States.

Guatemalan Ambassador to Korea Gustavo Lopez said that his government is doing its utmost effort to  help them keep doing business there and attract more investment.

Some Korean textile businesses are considering a move to Haiti or Nicaragua where they consider business conditions somewhat superior where wages are lower and tax benefits are more favorable. Slowing demand in the US won't change but the "better" wage, tax, and security conditions are tempting.

And it is not just Korean investments in the Guatemalan textile sector. After China, Korea is the second largest importer of Guatemalan sugarcane. Korea also imports a good deal of Antigua coffee. There are hopes to increase Guatemalan exports of coffee, rum and beer as well as to increase the number of Koreans who visit Guatemala each year.

Jobs and poverty in Guatemala

From Luis Duiguid at the Kansas City Star on his impressions following a visit to Guatemala

On our cross-country nearly 10-day journey, Hinshaw described the well-meaning but sometimes counterproductive foreign involvement. Many Christian groups proselytize, and the foreign money causes the Guatemalan government to not devote its taxing structure and policies to the health, education, welfare and other needs of the poor.

Outside groups should work with the Guatemalan government to ensure that foreign aid and efforts only occur with a far greater commitment in taxpayer-funded Guatemalan social services. As we traveled from the lowlands, to the mountains, the tropics and through the Mayan ruins, Hinshaw pointed out that what this country also badly needs is a railroad to efficiently and safely carry commerce and people. 

I don't know. Even without foreign money I'm not sure that the Guatemalan government, we're looking at you congress, was going to substantially increase smart spending on health, education, welfare and other needs of the poor. The spending would not only be in the interests of the poor but in the interests of the entire country. The international community made a big push for Guatemala to collect and spend more tax revenue following the 1996 peace accords to no avail. They almost withdrew financial support in return. If there's one thing that the Guatemalan government has shown, it is that it is rather impervious to outside pressure (US cut off funding during the war, the failure to pass necessary reforms following the war, the Rios Montt genocide trial, Paz y Paz's term, and their willingness to work with CICIG).

From Fitch Ratings

Regionally, low government revenue bases hamper fiscal flexibility. Improving low GDP growth potential will be important for El Salvador and Guatemala in the context of their lagging GDP per capita and development indicators. Sustaining growth momentum while making room for faster fiscal consolidation will be supportive of creditworthiness for the more diverse and dynamic Costa Rica and Panama.

Guatemala needs stronger economic growth and better jobs in order to reduce poverty. As we've seen in El Salvador with weak growth, however, there can be improvement in the lives of the poor without the magic jobs, jobs, jobs, campaign slogan (at least in the short-term).

What to do when you don't trust El Salvador's courts or government?

Lauren Carasik argues that World Bank Tribunal Threatens El Salvador's Development on Al Jazeera America.

El Salvador’s struggle to maintain control over its development is being keenly watched. The outcome of this dispute will set an important precedent about the reach, legitimacy and costs of investor protection provisions in existing and future trade and investment agreements. Resistance to the investor-state dispute resolution framework is animating opposition to the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership, currently being negotiated under a shroud of secrecy, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

The people of El Salvador and their government do not want mining to ravage their landscape, degrade their environment and compromise their health. Stripping nations of their right to economic and environmental self-determination by privileging investors’ rights through international arbitration mechanisms is undemocratic and disempowers communities that should derive some benefit from development in their neighborhoods. Corporations by nature owe their allegiance to shareholders, not good environmental stewardship or sustainable development. Allowing Pacific Rim to circumvent local mechanisms and hide behind an international tribunal will set a costly precedent for the global community.

Meanwhile Nathan Weller of EcoViva looks at Bending Aid Toward Business in El Salvador.

As was the call made on the floor of the U.S. Senate last September, the United States and its agencies like the MCC need to support policy reforms that enable rule-of-law in El Salvador to empower the public sector, not sideline it to expedite narrow private interests. This includes proper legislative oversight over an agency like PROESA, limiting its power as a technical assistance branch of PPPs, and being cautious in opening the flood gates to PPPs through increased funding, and increased risk exposure for a burgeoning public sector. Local, municipal governance structures also need to be prioritized. Alongside national Ministries, local governments should be empowered to, if they so choose, propose and oversee their own PPPs for the good of their distinct local constituencies.

In the Bay of Jiquilisco, Usulután, as well as in La Paz and San Vicente, civil society is forging a coalition with local governments to manage sustainable, inclusive coastal development. The United States and FOMILENIO II should enable these efforts, each already supported by the Salvadoran government through its “Territorios de Progreso” program and National Coastal Zone strategy. This will be especially important with new and unprecedented tourism development being planned for the region´s important coastal areas like the Bay of Jiquilisco.

We often speak about the weakness of El Salvador's (and the region's) courts and corruption throughout government agencies. The goal is always to make government more transparent, reduce corruption, and strengthen the integrity of the local and national courts. I don't know. I guess I see the move to an international tribunal and to the creation of an agency outside of the government potentially reflecting surrender.

Guatemala hasn't really changed all that much, has it?

Country star Reba McEntire traveled to Guatemala in 1996 to shoot a video for her song And Still.

When Reba McEntire ventured into the Guatemalan jungle to shoot her new video, “And Still,” she defied warnings of confrontations with banditos, hijackers and guerrillas.

Instead the flame-haired superstar walked into the welcoming arms of a hardworking people and beautiful children.

She came back, she says, changed forever.

“It got kind of scary, pretty hairy,” she told Country Weekly, which is presenting an exclusive look at her visit to Central America. “But we had a really, really good time. They are such beautiful people, the scenery was so fantastic and we’ll have a real unique video because of that.”

Before she left for the Central American country last month, Reba was warned of the perils she might encounter. But she faced them, defying U.S. travel advisories and endless rumors of bandits, kidnappings, hijackings, a brutal military and armed renegades.

Instead she discovered a rugged country of industrious people and curious, innocent children living in remote villages. 

Whether 1996 or today, we all have our hair-raising experiences in Guatemala but, in the end, we leave with having had tremendously rewarding trips.

Secretary of Defense Hagel to visit our key partner in Guatemala (and other news)

Central American homeless youth charity La Alianza and Austin-based ad agency LatinWorks team up to bring awareness of sex abuse in Guatemala.

In 2013 alone, according to The Monitoring Center of Sexual Health and Reproduction in Guatemala, more than 60,000 girls and adolescents between the ages of 10 and 19 gave birth … Of these 60,000, 4,356 are girls under 14 years of age and 89% of their abusers are family members, and among them, 30% are their own fathers, cited by a study conducted by the PDH (Procuraduria de los Derechos).

I haven't gotten around to it yet, but InSight Crime looks like what should be an excellent read on Claudia Paz y Paz and the fight for justice in Guatemala.

The FBI is helping to investigate the death of a Guatemalan campesino who was killed by Belizean soldiers.

A US soldier in Guatemala as part of the Beyond the Horizons program died in an accident when a large tree branch fell on him.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is visiting Mexico and Guatemala over the next three days "to Affirm U.S. Commitment" whatever that means.

Afterward, Kirby said, Hagel will travel to Guatemala to convey U.S. support for a key partner in the region challenged by narcotics trafficking and transnational crime.

Hagel’s visit will be the first visit to Guatemala by a U.S. defense secretary since 2005, Kirby said. “The secretary looks forward to meeting with the country's leadership,” he added.

While in Guatemala, Hagel also will visit with U.S. troops who are engaged in medical training and civil affairs exercises alongside members of the Guatemalan military.

While not the most worrisome country in the region, I'm not entirely sure Guatemala is a key partner, well, at least it doesn't act like it.

Sean Cox on Guatemala’s Toll Road Fiasco, or How to Give Money to Your Friends in the Private Sector. Part of the reason why I don't see Guatemala's political and economic elite as partners. You can blame the US for a lot of problems but it's not clear that we have reliable partners in high places.

Feel bad for Guatemala's banana bosses now?

Successful drug reforms require something Guatemala just doesn't have - strong institutions

The World Politics Review has a brief interview with Adriana Beltran, a very smart Guatemala observer, in Global Insider: To Succeed, Guatemala Drug Reforms First Require Strong Institutions. Adriana discusses some sources of violence as well as recent efforts to reduce crime in Guatemala.

But everyone wants to know what is going on with President Otto Perez Molina's interest in drug legalization and decriminalization (one of my early Al Jazeera op-eds).

WPR: What effect would marijuana and opium poppy legalization, as proposed by Molina, have on criminal actors and the violence they cause?

Beltran: Molina has been an outspoken proponent of drug policy reform on the international stage, but so far has done little on the domestic level. One of the proposals he has put forth is the use of Guatemalan opium poppy production for medicinal purposes. The proposal deserves consideration and is currently being evaluated by a recently established advisory commission.

Beyond increasing availability of medicines, the proposal could reduce a significant source of revenue for criminal groups and potentially make those groups weaker and smaller. Such a shift, however, could also result in criminal organizations tapping other illicit revenue streams and could even contribute to increased violence sparked by competition for dwindling resources. 

Establishing a regulated market in opium poppy is a complex undertaking, particularly given the deep-rooted problems of corruption. To be successful, it would have to be done on a step-by-step basis and in the context of a broader rural development strategy to improve the livelihoods of small farmers who grow poppy. It would also require strong and effective institutions, which the country currently lacks. If Guatemala is serious about legalizing the medical use of poppy, it needs to be serious about fighting corruption and strengthening its institutions.

Legalization and regulating currently illicit drugs is going to be quite the challenge. Given Guatemala's institutions and historical track record, I can't imagine that many people are optimistic that the government is going to be able to pull this one off.

Given that next year's elections are seventeen months away, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Guatemalan president promises to investigate trade unionist crimes

The economic model needs to change. Reform the justice system and increasing physical security for those threatened will help but won't quite cut it.

The Guatemalan president Otto Pérez Molina has promised to continue investigating crimes against trade unionists and to provide them with more security if they consider their lives to be in danger.

The pledge follows increasing international pressure to end impunity in the Central American nation and seek justice for the 73 trade unionists murdered there in the past few years.

On a per capita basis, Guatemala remains the most dangerous country in the world to be a trade unionist.

Workers and their unions face widespread violations of the most basic rights, such as the right to organise and to negotiate on behalf of the workers they represent.

A number of the trade unionists killed for campaigning for better labour rights had previously sought government protection after receiving death threats.

However, the protection was not given and they were subsequently murdered.

Under international pressure, the government has consequently created protection programmes to provide trade unionists with security if they feel they are at risk.

But many trade unionists say this response alone is not enough.

As long as a relatively small number of Guatemalan and international businesses benefit from the economic model and utilize the political system to defend their privileged position to the exclusion of nearly everyone else, promises of increased security for trade unionists is not going to be that effective.

In other news, Guatemalan authorities arrested a suspect in the killing of prominent chef and restaurateur Humberto Dominguez of Kakao.

To join or not to join - gangs and the police in El Salvador

elsalvador.com

From Reuters

El Salvador's government on Wednesday said it would charge gang members who attack police and military personnel under anti-terrorism laws, which impose longer prison sentences, to crack down on rising homicides in the poor Central American nation.

Justice Minister Ricardo Perdomo blamed a faction of the country's Barrio 18 gang for ordering attacks against government troops, saying there had been 60 so far this year.

I don't necessarily have a problem with imposing stiffer penalties on individuals, whether connected to a gang or not, who assault and/or kill security officials. I'm just not a fan of having them fall under the country's anti-terrorism laws - the same laws, I believe, that were used by ARENA to round up anti-water privatization protesters in Suchitoto in 2007.

While attacks by gangs against the police are up over 50 percent, not all police appear to be the target of the gangs. In Santa Ana, officers arrested one of their own for drunk driving. The officer was arrested along with his four driving companions - all allegedly members of the Barrio 18 gang.

To Rebound After Defeat, El Salvador’s ARENA Must Move Beyond Fear

Christine Wade and I have a post in today's World Politics Review on To Rebound After Defeat, El Salvador’s ARENA Must Move Beyond Fear. Here's the kicker:

While ARENA demonstrated that it can still get voters to the polls, doubts remain as to whether the party will conduct the self-reflection required to modernize itself. Following the 2009 loss to the FMLN, several ARENA members also sought to renovate the party. While acknowledging that they had accomplished much after occupying the presidency for 20 years, they also admitted that ARENA had sometimes failed to protect low- and middle-income Salvadorans against the abuses of the state and some of the country’s wealthy businessmen. They called for an ARENA that would represent all those in support of democracy and individual freedom, regardless of their political inclinations, not a party that only defended the interests of a select few. However, as in the past, would-be ARENA reformers’ calls for renovation fell on deaf ears. Unless ARENA embraces such reforms moving forward, its appeal will continue to be driven by fear, rather than the offer of a credible political alternative.  

I'm not optimistic, at least in the short-term, but I am rooting for a renovated ARENA that emerges from this recent electoral loss as a pro-democratic and pro-capitalist political party that many Salvadorans desire.

Divergent views on the failed Salvadoran gang truce?

Steve Dudley looks at 2 Divergent Views on El Salvador Gang Truce, 1 Sad Conclusion for Insight Crime.

1. A means for the gangs to strengthen their political, social and military standing in an attempt to become a sophisticated narco-criminal-political movement.

2. A way for the gangs to better incorporate themselves into society via social and economic programs while lowering levels of violence amongst themselves and against authorities.

It's a bit of a chicken or an egg problem. Has the truce failed in El Salvador because national (the gangs themselves, the PNC, government, society, the business community) and international actors (the United States) failed to support it or was there never a truce in the first place (hidden graves, continued criminal activity) so there was no reason for national and international groups to support it?

I'll just stick with what I said in June 2012.

Earlier this week, the truce between the MS-13 and the 18th Street Gang in El Salvador reached the 100-day mark. The truce has reduced homicides from approximately 14 to 5 per day. In recent weeks, that number has climbed a bit to 7.

The truce provides an important opportunity to reduce overall levels of violence in El Salvador. While most of the reporting is on whether 60,000 or so gang members can change, the truce won't stick if we are just asking the men and women who are members of gangs to change.

The state needs to change and make reforms that move its public security institutions away from mano dura and super man dura. The policies were critical to the expansion of gang-related crime. (I will have more on this at Al Jazeera probably this weekend).

If death squads that are eliminating gang member and former gang members continue to operate with impunity in El Salvador, the truce is bound to fail. If police continue to abuse gang members, whether they are in the process of arresting them or just harassing them, the truce is unlikely to hold. As long as prison conditions remain inhumane and authorities keep rounding up young men and women, the truce is unlikely to hold.

Finally, US foreign policy towards El Salvador, including economic, immigration, and security assistance, needs to change. El Salvador needs foreign direct investment and jobs. American businesses should be encouraged to invest in El Salvador to take advantage of the Millennium grants and the US' Partnership for Growth. Businesses or politicians that redirect investment to El Salvador should not come under political attack.

President Obama's decision to withhold deportation of hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants is a good start, but won't substitute for the passage of comprehensive immigration reform that provides a path to citizenship for most of those living in the US illegally. President Obama could move to make TPS for Salvadorans permanent instead of two year extensions that look like they will go on forever.

Finally, the US needs to change its security assistance / approach to El Salvador - more financial and human resources need to be dedicated to gang prevention, rehabilitation and reintegration strategies. The US could provide more support to the country's criminal justice system. Perhaps, at this time, there could be a serious discussion as to how to better assist gang members who want to leave the violence behind. Historically, it doesn't look like the US and Salvadoran governments have been able to deal effectively with gang members who want out or those who have gotten out.

I don't expect all 60,000 gang members in El Salvador to miraculously change their lives around. How do we assist those that do (10k, 20k, 30k?)? Experience has shown that many are going to fail on their first effort at transforming their lives. Are Salvadoran and US authorities ready to work with these young men and women, some not so young, so that as many as possible can turn their lives around?

So just to be clear, the truce gives the gang members a chance to reclaim lives of dignity for themselves and their families. However, it's not just the gang members that need to change. US policy and the Salvadoran state and people also need to change. They are getting a second chance as well.  

Dancing one's way out of Central America's gangs

Anna-Claire Bevan has the write-up on BBoy for Life, a new film about young Guatemalans who have turned to break dancing in order to give meaning to their lives and to help escape the country's gangs.

Guatemala City´s ghettos are renowned for their gangs, drugs and violence, but when US-born director Coury Deeb stayed in one, he saw a different side to life in the slums – one of people trying to escape their surroundings, through dance.

“We met with some B-Boys and learned that though they look like gangsters, many of them are not gangsters or involved in criminal activities. Yet they live next door to gangsters who often pursue them to join their gangs.

“What we saw with the B-Boys was a group who desire to be a part of something good, to express themselves through art, through B-Boying, which is an element of hip hop. Their threat is very real so they dance largely to stay out of the gangs,” says Coury whose film production company, Nadus Films, believes in using what you´re good at to serve and empower people.

Shining a light on the breakdancing subculture of Guatemala City, BBoy for Life showcases the struggles and triumphs of Cheez, Gato and Leidy as they contend with dance and gang life in some of the roughest ghettos of Central America.

Radio Progreso employee murdered in Honduras

Radio Progreso marketing manager Carlos Mejía Orellana was found murdered in his home in the northern city of El Progreso on the night of 11 April. He was stabbed several times in the chest.

Mejía had worked for the past 13 years for El Progreso-based Radio Progreso, one of the many Honduran media that criticized the 2009 coup d'état. According to he station's manager, Jesuit priest Ismael Moreno, around 15 of its employees have received death threats since the coup.

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) formally asked the Honduran government to protect Mejía in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Father Moreno has accused the authorities of ignoring these requests and the threats Mejía received, although his life was clearly in danger.

Let me just say that I don't have a lot of faith in the Honduran police who are allegedly leaning towards chalking up Mr. Mejia's murder to "a crime of passion."

Does Torture Work? Evidence from Guatemala

Christopher Sullivan, a PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan and a Fellow at Yale University’s Program on Order, Conflict, and Violence, has a guest post up at Political Violence @ a Glance based on a recent article he published in the Journal of Peace Research.

I haven't read the original article (you can read it here) but it does look very interesting. There's a lot of quantitative data out there on the Guatemalan civil war that is available to scholars who are interested in trying to answer questions about the local level dynamics of the conflict. 

In a new article at the Journal of Peace Research, I bring to bear micro-level data from Guatemala to generate a systematic evaluation of how torture affects violence within the context of an organized insurgency. This is a case in which highly skilled military personnel tortured with near impunity. Among other tactics, agents of the Guatemalan military forced the victims to stand hooded for hours or days, forced them to eat excrement, forced them to stay awake for days at a time, refused to give them food or water, subjected them to electric shocks, stripped them naked, burned them with cigarettes, suspended them from chains, sexually abused them, submerged them in water, cut them and broke their fingers. Combining data from Guatemala’s Commission for Historical Clarification with a research strategy designed to overcome many of the hurdles associated with causal inference, the analysis identifies how local-level dynamics of violence change in the aftermath of torture. The study examines torture’s impacts on subsequent killings perpetrated by both insurgents and counter-insurgents.

Two trends emerge from the analysis:

• First, torture has no identifiable systematic association with decreases in insurgent perpetrated killings.

• Second, torture is shown to be robustly associated with increased killings perpetrated by counterinsurgents.

Just the type of Salvadoran who should be deported

An immigration judge in Miami has ruled that former Salvadoran defense minister General Jose Guillermo Garcia should be deported from the US back to El Salvador because of his involvement in human rights abuses committed in that country during the 1980s.

The ruling went beyond earlier court decisions and found that General García had played a direct role in some of the most egregious killings and torture in El Salvador at a time when Washington was supporting the Salvadoran military in its battle against leftist insurgents.

Judge Horn found “clear and convincing evidence” that General García “assisted or otherwise participated” in 11 violent episodes that scarred the Central American country, including the 1980 murder of Archbishop Óscar Arnulfo Romero as he was saying Mass in the capital, San Salvador.

The judge also found that General García helped conceal the involvement of soldiers who killed four American churchwomen later that year. He “knew or should have known” that army troops had slaughtered the villagers, including women and children, in the hamlet of El Mozote in December 1981, Judge Horn ruled.

In an unusually expansive and scalding 66-page decision, Judge Horn wrote that “these atrocities formed part of General García’s deliberate military policy as minister of defense.” He added that the general “fostered, and allowed to thrive, an institutional atmosphere in which the Salvadoran armed forces preyed upon defenseless civilians under the guise of fighting a war against communist subversives.”

Some Americans and Salvadorans are obviously concerned with how the FMLN will manage the economic situation in El Salvador as well as whether they will take anything from that made up new left playbook and lead them to consolidate power at the expense of democracy.

One of the issues that I am concerned with is related to how Sanchez Ceren and the FMLN plan to address transitional justice. I've never gotten the impression that the FMLN leadership is set on doing any more than they are already doing - (vague) apologies and symbolic gestures. However, they might not have a choice.

Salvador Sanchez Ceren might have to respond to the forced returns of General Garcia, General Vides Casanova, and Colonel Inocente Montano from the US. Legal maneuverings are still going on in Spain which already led to instability in 2011. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights has been putting pressure on the Salvadoran Government to investigate and provide some sort of remedy to victims and victims' families who suffered during the civil war. There is some movement in El Salvador on El Mozote and other well-known crimes.

This November is the 25th anniversary of the murders of the UCA Jesuits so it might be a particularly testy few months for the new president.

And it is not just transitional justice that former military officials and some ARENA officials fear. Several corruption investigations against ARENA officials are underway and will really test the country's judicial and political system. Combine these investigations with the 2015 legislative and municipal elections and things are sure to be interesting for the next several months.  

In El Salvador, a glimmer of hope for a stronger economy.

So I forgot to link to this when the first round of voting was occurring - In El Salvador, a glimmer of hope for a stronger economy.

In stubbornly slow developing economies, like El Salvador, cultivating entrepreneurship is an essential ingredient for growth. With modest start-up costs, it is the small, even micro firms -- from one to 50 employees -- that generate most of the jobs. Yet, here, their emergence has been "absolutely stifled by the security situation," says a seasoned diplomat in San Salvador.

Real numbers are hard to come by, but it's clear that criminal demands on the country's commercial life stymy growth.

El Salvador doesn't get a "favorable" story in Fortune very often.

And there's still this interview by Elaine Freedman with César Villalona in Envio that provides a bit of a different take on El Salvador's economic performance under Funes and the FMLN.

Challenges confronting the next Costa Rican president

The Inter-American Dialogue's Latin American Advisor and American University's AULA Blog both take a look at what Luis Guillermo Solis has inherited in Costa Rica and what he has to do in order to leave the country in a better position that what he now inherits.

In the Advisor, José Antonio Muñoz, partner at Arias & Muñoz in San José, argues that

Solís' challenge to govern, if elected, is threefold: to maintain the vibrancy of Costa Rica's productive sector, to find the right political and government figures to lead the administration, and to either find a working arrangement with Congress or to neutralize it. he easier task for the new president will be to seek and obtain the support of the business community. This, in turn, would facilitate the other two. 

Kevin Casas-Zamora, secretary for political affairs at the Organization of American States and former vice president of Costa Rica, argues that

The challenges that await Luis Guillermo Solís are complex, and he's been given a weak hand to play. The first one is to build a viable majority in a legislature in which his party controls only one-fifth of the seats and has no obvious partners to forge a stable coalition. The second one is to appoint a credible economic team that can soothe the anxieties of domestic and foreign investors. The third one is to rein in a deteriorating fiscal situation, which calls for a tax reform that Solís has pledged not to pursue in the first 2 years of his administration. All this is a tall order for a leader that lacks any previous executive or legislative experience, a solid political base of his own and a team with deal-making and policy-making depth. 

Solis inherits a troubled country (though that is a bit relative) and it is really difficult to predict how well he is going to do. His party's has little legislative support and his government experience is limited. I'm not sure that he can satisfy the country's needs with symbolic victories even if they are just intended as a means to an end.

Fulton Armstrong takes a look at Solis in Will Costa Rica Seize the Opportunity?

His public persona – as a university history professor, former diplomat, a non-corrupt political neophyte, and an unglamorous campaigner – has engendered sympathy even if, as the head of a party with no record, people don’t really know what they’re getting in terms of policy.  Various business groups have signaled they can work with him and presented their wish lists – all touching on energy availability and prices – but that agenda also remains vague.

It's unclear whether those characteristics that allowed him to move to the forefront of Costa Rican politics will help him to govern. Armstrong, like the first two responses, is also concerned with what Solis will be able to accomplish with so little legislative support.

I'd say that these responses all work well with Something is wrong in the region’s “exceptional” democracy, Costa Ricans look to turn the page after a rough few years, No whammies! No whammy, no whammy…. STOP!, and Business Implications of El Salvador and Costa Rica Votes.

No whammies! No whammy, no whammy…. STOP!

Costa Rica got hit with a double dose of bad news yesterday when Intel and Bank of American announced significant layoffs in the country.

Bank of America Corp. and Intel Corp. stunned Costa Rica’s government by announcing they would fire about 3,000 workers in the Central American nation just two days after the opposition won a presidential runoff.

Intel, the world’s largest computer-chip maker, is cutting 1,500 out of 2,500 jobs in the country as part of an effort to consolidate some operations in Asia, spokesman Chuck Mulloy said yesterday. Hours later, BofA said it would be exiting operations in Costa Rica, Guadalajara, Mexico and Taguig, Philippines, without saying how many jobs would be lost. Costa Rica’s foreign investment agency said the BofA move would result in 1,500 layoffs.

This is horrible news for Costa Rica, of course, but it is also terrible for the rest of the Central America. Each country is trying to attract high quality, better paying jobs, and the fact that Costa Rica can't maintain 3,000 Intel and Bank of America jobs should make them rethink what potential they have to attract such jobs.

Instead, they'll just have to settle for deal such as Fruit of the Loom shifting its clothing operations to Honduras.

Costa Ricans look to turn the page after a rough few years

Getty Images

Luis Guillermo Solis of the Citizen Action Party walked away with a victory in yesterday's presidential runoff in Costa Rica. In what has been a rather strange campaign season, Solis picked up 78 percent of the vote, finishing well ahead of his rival Johnny Araya. While not as high a percentage as usual, 57 percent of the voters turned out yesterday. However, Solis did capture the highest absolute number of votes for a single candidate in Costa Rica's history (just like El Salvador's Salvador Sanchez Ceren).

Now it is on to governing with little money and little congressional support.

A published author well versed in international relations and global trade, Solis ran on a promise to fight Costa Rica's stubborn poverty rate and to stamp out corruption, an issue that has dogged incumbent President Laura Chinchilla's administration and which struck a chord with voters.

"It's been four years of daily suffering," said Mercedes Castillo, a 66-year-old housewife and mother-of-three, after voting for Solis at a high school in the capital, San Jose. "There's just too much corruption."

... 

He faces an uphill battle in a National Assembly where his party will have only 13 of 57 seats, although analysts tout his ability to reach across the aisle thanks to his ties to the PLN.

He must also square rising government debt with a campaign promise not to raise taxes for two years, despite pledges to boost spending on education.

"He's going to have a government without money, a fiscal deficit of 6 percent, and lots of social spending commitments," said Jose Carlos Chinchilla, a political analyst and a director at the University of Costa Rica.

Solis has also said he hopes to attract new businesses to Costa Rica's booming free-trade zones, which have enticed the likes of Hewlett-Packard Co.

Congrats and good luck president-elect.

Makrina Gudiel: Seeking Justice for Crimes of the Past in Guatemala

Makrina Gudiel's brother, before he disappeared in Guatemala during the country's 36-year civil war.

The Office of Multicultural Affairs, the Department of Latin American Studies and Women's Studies, and Education for Justice are hosting Makrina Gudiel Monday night at 7pm in Brennan 509 on the campus of the University of Scranton.

Many Guatemalans lost loved ones during that country’s civil war. For Makrina, it was her brother, who was disappeared in 1983 by state forces and is included in the infamous Military Diary, a logbook that documented the kidnap, torture, and murder of 183 people considered to be linked to anti-government activity. 

Her family brought her brother's case to the Inter-American Commission in 2004, and just days later, her father was murdered. The government never carried out an adequate investigation into the crime, and on February 5, 2014, Makrina testified before the Inter-American Court about the case.

In 2003, Makrina ran for a seat in congress with the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity Party and has combated corruption as a member of her city council in the town of Cruce de la Esperanza, Escuintla. She serves as a member and coordinator of the Network of Guatemalan Women Human Rights Defenders.

Makrina will explain why her family has fought for justice for these crimes, despite ongoing death threats against them. She will also discuss international solidarity with Guatemala over the last 30 years, including the sanctuary movement of the 1980s and the decades-long struggle to end US military support for repressive regimes in Guatemala. GHRC staff will provide interpretation and background information.

Founded in 1982, the Guatemala Human Rights Commission/USA (GHRC) is a non-profit, grassroots, solidarity organization dedicated to promoting human rights in Guatemala and supporting communities and activists who face threats and violence. GHRC documents and denounces abuses, educates the international community, and advocates for policies that foster peace and justice.

There's some good buzz on campus regarding the event and we should also have some guests from the community representing Marywood University, the Fellowship of Reconciliation, and SOAW Scranton. I'm excited about meeting Makrina and Kathryn from the GHRC as well.

The event is free and open to the public so drop on in if you can.

Ticos will head to the polls once again today, or will they?

Luis Solis' first place finish in the first round of Costa Rica's February presidential vote surprised many, including myself. However, what was actually more surprising was what happened in the days and weeks following the vote. The Citizen Action Party and Solis' support increased to the point where he doubled, perhaps tripled, his second round opponent's support. His opponent, Johnny Araya of the incumbent party, subsequently dropped out of the race.

However, Costa Rican electoral law requires that Araya's name remains on the ballot but he's been done campaigning for a month. His party's still been out there but the only real question has been how much Solis going to win by and how many people are going to turn out in a one-way race.

In a sentiment I've read before, Javier Cordoba writes

Luis Solis' main challenger in Sunday's presidential election is voter abstention.

The center-leftist's only flesh-and-blood rival in the runoff dropped out of the race last month, leaving Solis one remaining challenge: getting enough Costa Ricans to the polls to give him a respectable vote total.

That's where it gets tricky. Costa Rica has compulsory voting where citizens are required to vote. However, compulsory voting isn't enforced. Therefore, there's some question as to how many people are going to turn out today and whether the results are going to give Solis some type of mandate. He's going to have minority support in the congress so he is going to have to rely to a certain extent on the public support to advance his preferred legislation.

It can't hurt but I'm just not entirely convinced that a surprisingly high turnout and/or a three- or even four-to-one margin of victory is going to make a difference.

You can read more in Something is wrong in the region’s “exceptional” democracy.

Ambassador Zamora does what ambassadors are supposed to do

Washington College, March 2014

Ruben Zamora, El Salvador's Ambassador to the United States, articulates his country's goals under the incoming administration of Salvador Sanchez Ceren in Making the transition from guerrilla to president.

Basically, he does what ambassadors are supposed to do.

He highlights his country's progress over the last two decades ("election that reflected the maturity of our democracy and the progress of our society since the end of the civil war in 1992").

He highlights progress during the current FMLN administration ("to continue the policies started by president Mauricio Funes in 2009, particularly our emphasis on social measures to alleviate poverty, and incorporate our citizens in the global workforce").

And he emphasizes the incoming government's desire to build and expand upon that progress over the next five years by working with all sectors of society, including the private sector, and with the United States.

Ambassador Zamora sidestepped concerns about the controversial election outcome, ARENA's heated rhetoric in calling on the military to defend their victory, differences over the Public Private Partnership Law and, perhaps even, the second Millennium Challenge Compact. He sidestepped concerns over the future of the gang truce and challenges related to drug trafficking and organized crime. 

Not (too) much to criticize. 

These are not really criticisms but I do wonder whether the statements made by Ambassador Zamora would have had more meaning had they come directly from President-elect Salvador Sanchez Ceren. The Ambassador is a really bright guy, well-respected internationally. We know where he stands. However, we want to hear directly from the President-elect himself - not based off a conversation with him.

I also think that the Ambassador could have done a better job tying this op-ed together with his 2013 Miami Herald op-ed where he discussed a common ground for partnership between the US and El Salvador. "Partners" is the last word in this op-ed but it could have been more of a frame emphasizing the continuity. 

Framing Disappearance: H.I.J.@.S., Public Art and the Making of Historical Memory of the Guatemalan Civil War

In addition to Murder, Memory, and the Maya, here's another recent academic work on Guatemala that might interest you. Kevin A. Gould and Alicia Ivonne Estrada take a look at Framing Disappearance: H.I.J.@.S., Public Art and the Making of Historical Memory of the Guatemalan Civil War in ACME: An International E-Journal for Critical Geographies.

Geographers describe how social movements elaborate alternative histories in public spaces. However, few studies have examined how such alternative histories are conditioned by underlying historical narratives. We engage this topic by analyzing public art created in 2004-5 by the Guatemalan chapter of a transnational organization called Hij@s por la Identidad y la Justicia contra el Olvido y el Silencio, Sons and Daughters for Identity and Justice Against Oblivion and Silence, (H.I.J.@.S.). Composed of the sons and daughters of people whom the Guatemalan government forcefully disappeared and murdered during the Civil War (1960-1996), the group seeks to maintain a historical memory of the war and represents an important voice of the Guatemalan left. 

Our analysis shows how public art created by H.I.J.@.S. resists the continued effects of enforced disappearance by elaborating historical memory in which the disappeared have a place. We also document how images and texts created by the group privilege the actions of ladinos--Guatemalans who identify as non-indigenous--and their organizations and open limited space for imagining Maya agency or the possibility that Mayas were subject to enforced disappearance.We suggest that differences in the ways Mayas and ladinos are portrayed in public art created by H.I.J.@.S. in 2004-5 is an effect of the leftist historical narrative that informed the group’s work at the time. While we agree with H.I.J.@.S. that there is a battle to be waged against official histories of the war, we argue that leftist historical narratives must also be transformed to be more inclusive of indigenous knowledges. 

Murder, Memory, and the Maya review in LARR

S. Ashley Kistler, assistant professor of anthropology and Latin American and Caribbean studies at Rollins College, has a review on Murder, Memory, and the Maya for the Latin American Research Review that takes a look at these four recent books.

For Every Indio Who Falls: A History of Maya Activism in Guatemala, 1960–1990. By Betsy Konefal. 

A Beauty That Hurts: Life and Death in Guatemala. Second revised edition. By W. George Lovell. 

After the Coup: An Ethnographic Reframing of Guatemala, 1954. Edited by Timothy J. Smith and Abigail E. Adams.

The Mayan in the Mall: Globalization, Development, and the Making of Modern Guatemala. By J. T. Way. 

Here's her takeaway

These works give us new insights into the historical events that preceded Guatemala’s 1954 coup and twentieth-century Guatemalan ideologies of race and ethnicity, while bringing the reader closer to understanding how the civil war forever transformed Guatemalan culture and society. They remind us that while the civil war ended more than fifteen years ago, the inequalities and instability it created continue to define life in Guatemala today.

Peace has eluded Guatemala, these books show, in part because national attitudes that stigmatize Maya culture as “antimodern” and an obstacle to progress have not changed. Those enduring attitudes are primary causes of decades of violence and centuries of inequality. As Lovell writes in A Beauty That Hurts, “How, I ask myself, can a ‘new struggle’ be avoided if the root causes of the civil war are talked about, year after year, administration after administration, only to be addressed in theory, not in practice?” (98).

For Guatemala to achieve peace, it must confront its past and change national attitudes toward the Maya. While the trial of Guatemala’s former president Ríos Montt offered the country the possibility for one such change, the reversal of his conviction perpetuated the liminal status of the Maya and presented yet another obstacle in their fight for justice and equality. The court’s decision to postpone Ríos Montt’s retrial left the future uncertain not only for the former dictator but for all Guatemalans.

And yes I would have highlighted the review even if she hadn't gone to Florida State University.

Central America's not doing so bad

Playa Jaco, Costa Rica

Zach Dyer summarizes the most recent results of Mitofsky approval ratings of Latin American presidents at The Tico Times.Laura Chinchilla picks up the rear with a disastrous 16 percent approval rating, probably worse that what she really deserves but still in the right direction.

El Salvador’s outgoing President Mauricio Funes reported 67 percent support followed by Panama’s Ricardo Martinelli (65 percent) and Guatemala’s Otto Pérez Molina (56 percent).

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega had 49 percent support and former-Honduran President Porfirio Lobo had 38 percent. 

Funes' rating comes from a January poll which helps explain why the FMLN did so well in February's first round presidential election. I do wonder, however, how much (if any) his approval rating dropped between January and early March's second round runoff. Dis his surgery, questions about who was in the car crash, and unrelenting attacks against ARENA bring down his approval rating and hurt the FMLN's chances between round one and round two? Those events probably didn't hurt as much as the chaos in Venezuela, but I just don't know.

I'm surprised that Ortega is doing so "poorly." He lost 17 percentage points since the last poll. There doesn't seem to be anything that explains that much of a drop in such a short period of time.

In Panama, Ricardo Martinelli continues going strong which might bode well for his party's chances in May's presidential election. John Otis has a great overview of Martinelli's Legacy in Latin Trade.

During five years as Panamá’s president, Ricardo Martinelli has forged a reputation for winning ugly.

He favors a bruising, Chris Christie-like governing style. He disdains democratic checks and balances and tried to spy on his political foes. He’s been accused of corruption by his own vice president. Shortly after Martinelli took the oath of office in 2009, the U.S. ambassador to Panamá described him as having “a penchant for bullying and blackmail.”

Yet, Martinelli is leaving office in July with sky-high job approval numbers and a long list of achievements that includes public works mega-projects, Panamá’s promotion in 2010 to investment grade status, and the fastest growing economy in the hemisphere. Supporters portray Martinelli as Panamá’s best chief executive since the country returned to democracy following the 1989 U.S. invasion that ousted dictator Manuel Noriega.

And if you want to get caught up with the May elections, Carin Zissis has a very good update on the divergent poll results for the Americas Society Council of the Americas. The ruling party's candidate, José Domingo Arias, is (statistically) tied in one poll and leading by 7 percentage points in another poll. It's a three-way race with only a plurality needed to win next month.

Balance in the FMLN's cabinet?

As president-elect Sanchez Ceren looks set to take the reins of power on June 1st, we are beginning to get a sense of what his administration is going to look like. While the transition team was not balanced, his cabinet looks to be better balanced when it comes to representing somewhat diverse viewpoints in El Salvador.

FMLN USA reports that the first announced appointments are

Finance Minister, Carlos Cáceres
Foreign Relations Minister Hugo Martinez
Minister of Public Works: Gerson Martinez
Environment Agency (Minister) Lina Pohl
Minister of Economy : Salomón Lopez Tharsis
Minister of Tourism: Jose Napoleon Duarte
Secretary of Economic Affairs: Roberto Lorenzana
Private Secretary: Manuel Melgar
Secretary for Governance and Policy Dialogue: Hato Hasbun

Carlos Caceres and Salomón Lopez Tharsis should calm fears that the government intends to do anything radical. As I've said before, I just don't think that the FMLN is in a great position to do anything radical even if they wanted to. El Salvador is strongly tied to the US and they can't rely upon Venezuela (or anybody else at this point in time) for much.

While there are more announcements to come, one thing that really stands out is the lack of women - 1 out of 9. Once you add in Sanchez Ceren and Oscar Ortiz and perhaps even José Luis Merino, the balance looks even worse. And not for nothing, but the only woman announced so far is in charge of the Environment.

And in case you are interested, CISPES has the English-language translation of Eugenio Chicas' March 25th speech during which Salvador Sánchez Cerén and Óscar Ortiz received their credentials as president and vice president. Chicas is the President of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).