Better But Still Terrible...in Guatemala

The story of the year in Guatemala was obviously the trial of former dictator Efrain Rios Montt and his intelligence chief Jose Rodriguez Sanchez. After several weeks of intense proceedings, a three-judge panel found Rios Montt guilty of genocide and crimes against humanity and sentenced him to eighty years in jail. At the same time, Rodriguez Sanchez was found not guilty because he oversaw intelligence rather than operations.

Days after the historic trial, the Constitutional Court made a tortured decision that overlooked all the defense's irregularities and unlawful actions and that elevated what procedural problems they saw from the prosecution and, more importantly, the judges to constitutional issues. Politically some people might be happy with the decision, like the President who still wants amnesty so that there can be reconciliation (!), but the Constitutional Court's actions were not a shining moment for the criminal justice system.

Unfortunately, the collapse of the Rios Montt trial overshadowed numerous successes in the courts this year. Prensa Libre has a list of thirteen high impact cases that showed progress (not necessarily complete) in 2013.

1.- Dejan cuerpos de dos niñas y dos mujeres...Por este hecho, Eddie Barrera Cincuir y Edilberto Otoniel Orozco Orozco  fueron capturados, procesados y condenados a 180 años de prisión.Carlos Miranda López fue sentenciado a tres años de cárcel, por encubrimiento propio, y Darwin Otoniel Orozco Miranda fue absuelto.

2.- Procesados policías por robo de droga....Nueve investigadores de la Policía Nacional Civil enfrentan proceso penal como supuestos miembros de una banda dedicada al robo de droga.

3.- Pandilleros vinculados con  242 crímenes....El Juzgado A de Mayor Riesgo tramita un proceso en contra de ocho supuestos jefes de la Mara Salvatrucha, a quienes el Ministerio Público señala por haber ordenado la muerte de 242 personas por no pagar extorsión. La Fiscalía indica que los crímenes ocurrieron entre el 2010 y el 2011, mientras varios de los sindicados estaban presos.

4.- MP relaciona a político con narcotráfico...El exsecretario departamental del partido Compromiso, Renovación y Orden de Jutiapa, Aníbal Menéndez Rodríguez, enfrenta proceso penal como presunto miembro de una red que trafica droga. La Policía capturó a  Menéndez Rodríguez el 12 de septiembre, junto a cuatro personas más. Se presume que es financista de una agrupación que traslada narcóticos a El Salvador.

5.- Juicio contra tres por muerte de procuradora...Dos sujetos y una mujer enfrentarán debate por la muerte de Íngrid Gabriela Conedera Vargas, procuradora técnica de la Procuraduría General de la Nación, quien fue ultimada el 25 de julio, en la zona 5. 

6.- Matanza de nueve agentes en Salcajá...El presunto narcotraficante Eduardo Villatoro Cano, alias Guayo, y 15 supuestos miembros de su estructura, enfrentan proceso por la muerte de nueve policías asignados a la subestación de Salcajá, Quetzaltenango.

7.- Masacre en San José Nacahuil deja 11 muertos...Ocho supuestos miembros de la pandilla 18 son vinculados por el Ministerio Público con el ataque armado que el 7 de septiembre dejó 11 hombres muertos en San José Nacahuil, San Pedro Ayampuc.La investigación indica que el atentado se originó por una disputa relacionada con el tráfico de droga en el lugar. Los pandilleros vieron perjudicadas sus acciones ilícitas.

8.- Red es  señalada de despojo de 50 propiedades...Veinticinco supuestos miembros de la estructura los Topacio, señalada de despojo de bienes inmuebles, enfrentan proceso en el Juzgado Primero A de Mayor Riesgo.La Fiscalía cree que la organización participó en 50 estafas al Registro General de la Propiedad, donde cambió documentos de terrenos y viviendas. Al momento se han documentado 19 casos.

9.- Estructura vendió pasaportes...En el Juzgado Primero B de Mayor Riesgo se tramita un proceso en contra de siete personas, supuestas integrantes de una banda que vendía pasaportes falsificados.La investigación detalla que la banda llevaba diez años operando dentro de la Dirección General de Migración. Una colombiana que fue cliente de la estructura contó cómo compró el documento.

10.- Rigorrico es investigado por extorsiones...El Ministerio Público investiga a Rigoberto Morales Barrientos, alias Rigorrico, reo señalado de dirigir una red dedicada a cometer extorsiones desde la cárcel el Infiernito, Escuintla.El caso se tramita en el Juzgado Segundo de Primera Instancia Penal, a cargo del juez Carlos Aguilar. Las pesquisas indican que la red comenzó a operar en el 2005. Veintiuna personas afrontan proceso.

11.- Ligado a caso por  crimen contra abogada...Jairo Alfredo Hernández Reyes, de 25 años, alias el Caliente y/o el Frío, es señalado por el Ministerio Público como autor material de la muerte de la abogada Lea Marie de León Marroquín.El ataque fue perpetrado el 14 de febrero pasado, después de que la profesional salió de su oficina, en la Avenida de La Reforma, zona 9. La Fiscalía investiga 13 crímenes más relacionados con  el sindicado.

12.-  Organización robaba carros en Escuintla...Nueve supuestos integrantes de una banda dedicada a robar vehículos en Escuintla enfrentan un proceso penal que se tramita en la capital. La investigación indica que en diciembre del 2012 fue detectada la estructura, la cual se cree que robaba entre tres y cuatro automotores cada día.

13.- Se le acusa de  tener  relaciones con menores...El abogado César Barrientos Aguirre, hijo del magistrado César Barrientos Pellecer, enfrentará  juicio por presuntamente haber contratado servicios sexuales de menores de edad. La madre de una de las menores declaró en el proceso  que Barrientos Aguirre era cliente de una red dedicada a la trata de personas que opera en Mazatenango, Suchitepéquez. El caso sigue su curso.

I wrote about several arrests in high profile crimes in October. The progress also fits well with Greg's post this morning on Better But Still Terrible.Guatemalan authorities have done well to bring the murder rate down from 46 to 34/35 per 100,000. They have also done well to reduce impunity from 98 percent to approximately 70 percent. The poverty rate has decreased by about 20 percentage points over the last two years.

However even with these improvements, the political, economic, and security situation in Guatemala is still pretty terrible.

Guatemalan deportees exceed 50,000 in 2013

Planes carrying 399 Guatemalans landed in Guatemala City on Friday bringing the total number deported this year from the United States to 50,233. That's a 25 percent increase over the 40,647 deported in 2012.

Another ~30,000 were returned to Guatemala via land presumably after having been picked up somewhere in Mexico. That's about 10,000 less than last year.

So really, there is no difference in the number of Guatemalans returned involuntarily in 2013 compared to 2012. On the face of it, it just looks like a greater number of Guatemalans were picked up at the US border, and within the US itself, while fewer were stopped in Mexico and returned to Guatemala via land.

Guatemalan authorities estimate that approximately 200,000 Guatemalans undertake the journey north each year (~550 per day) so there is another 120,000 unaccounted for. Some make it to the US, others settle in Mexico, and a third group returns voluntarily to Guatemala (perhaps they were robbed and ran out of money or decided the trek was not worth it).

The 1.5 million or so Guatemalans residing in the US will send over $5 billion in remittances back to their home country in 2013.

As of a week or so ago, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency provided the following breakdown of deportees.

1. Mexico - 241,493 (121 million)
2. Guatemala - 47,769 (15.5 million)
3. Honduras - 37,049 (8 million)
4. El Salvador - 21,602 (6.2 million)
5. Ecuador - 1,616 (15.5 million)
6. Brazil - 1,500 (200 million)
7. Colombia - 1,429 (48 million)
8. Nicaragua - 1,383 (6 million)

Last year at this time I wrote that the US should extend Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to Guatemalans residing in the US. I'd say TPS is dead at this point.

Mass killing in Central America?

The National Civilian Police in Guatemala recorded 4,881 homicides between January and November 2013. Unfortunately, they have no motive for 2,390 killings (49%) so it makes it really difficult to empirically support many hypotheses regarding violent crime in the country. What I also don't trust in the data is that each killing only falls into a single category. For example, I'm not sure how authorities classified the nine police officers killed in Huehuetenango in June. They had to be placed in either the ignored or revenge category when they could also have fallen under confrontation with the PNC, narco-trafficking, and victims of robbery.

I was only thinking about this because of Jay Ulfelder's post on A Notable Year of the Wrong Kind in which Mexico is the only Latin American country that experienced "mass killing" in 2013. By mass killing, he means "any episode in which the deliberate actions of state agents or other organizations kill at least 1,000 noncombatant civilians from a discrete group." The organizations are probably cartels but I'm not sure if the responsibility is lumped together or broken down by different organizations. I'm also not sure who the discrete group in Mexico is other than civilians but I would probably say "migrants" making their way north to the United States.

Guatemala has suffered between 5,000 and 6,500 murders each year for the last few years, but we don't have exact numbers on who did the killings or who were the victims. Given what we read, one would suspect that gangs, organized crime, and drug traffickers have been responsible for well over 1,000 deaths each year but the PNC's incomplete statistics don't back that up.

El Salvador will "only" experience 2,500 or so murders this year. I suspect that the MS-13 and 18th Street gangs are responsible for at least 1,000 of those deaths but I can't be certain. Honduras will finish the year with over 7,000 murders and a rate over 80 once again but we can't be certain there because the government has stopped sharing homicide statistics. Venezuela will suffer approximately 25,000 murders and finish the year with a murder rate just below 80 per 100,000.

Anybody want to take a crack at which organization/group was responsible for killing over 1,000 members of a specific discrete group in the region in 2013?

Libre accepts questionable and partial National Party victory in Honduras

On Tuesday, Honduras' Supreme Court rejected Libre's legal challenges of the November 24th vote that saw the people of Honduras turn out and elect Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party president with 37 percent. The Court dismissed the opposition's motion to challenge the results without comment.

"We won't deny the victory of Juan Orlando, but we will categorize it as a questionable victory and a partial victory," Zelaya told Efe Tuesday after learning of the Supreme Court decision.

Libre, Zelaya said by telephone from his home province of Olancho, will conduct "a constructive opposition inside Congress," where the party will hold 37 seats, behind the National Party's 48.

Hernandez will assume the presidency of a country with the highest murder rate in the world (~85 per 100k if the government actually shared data) and on the verge of bankruptcy. And what do you know, the US recently issued another travel warning for its citizens traveling to Honduras.

The vast majority of serious crimes in Honduras, including those against U.S. citizens, are never solved; of the 50 murders committed against U.S. citizens since 2008, police have only solved two. Members of the Honduran National Police are known to engage in criminal activity, including murder and car theft. The Government of Honduras lacks sufficient resources to properly investigate and prosecute cases, and police often lack vehicles or fuel to respond to calls for assistance. In practice, this means police may take hours to arrive at the scene of a violent crime, or may not respond at all. As a result, criminals operate with a high degree of impunity throughout Honduras. The Honduran government is in the early stages of substantial reforms to its criminal justice institutions.

Transnational criminal organizations also conduct narcotics trafficking and other unlawful activities throughout the country, using violence to control drug trafficking routes and carry out criminal activity. Other criminals, acting both individually and in gangs in Tegucigalpa, San Pedro Sula, and other large cities, commit crimes such as murder, kidnapping, extortion, carjacking, armed robbery, rape, and other aggravated assaults.

Kidnappings and disappearances are an ongoing concern throughout the country as well. Kidnapping affects both the local and expatriate communities, with victims sometimes paying large ransoms for the prospect of release. Kidnapping is believed to be underreported. Since January 1, 2012, four cases of kidnapped U.S. citizens were reported to the U.S. Embassy. The kidnapping victims were all subsequently released.

A US businesswoman and owner of a luxury spa on the beautiful Bay Island of Roatan was found dead a few days ago. However, the murder appears to be a case of domestic abuse as her Honduran husband was arrested in connection with her stabbing.

International Criminality and Capitalist Alliance Loom in El Salvador's Election (oops did I miss something?)

Ana Rosa Quintana with the PanAmPost provides her take on the upcoming February elections in El Salvador in International Criminality and Socialist Alliance Loom in El Salvador’s Election. Saca's possible return to the presidency and Merino's alleged ties to international drug trafficking are worrisome, but how can you seriously leave out all the allegations of corruption against ARENA that are coming to light?

Saca is a former ARENA president believed to have increased his wealth sixteen times while in office. Several of his officials are under investigation for corruption. The previous ARENA president, Francisco Flores, is under investigation for corruption, money laundering, and the misuse of government funds involving a $10 million donation from Taiwan. Several ARENA officials and businessmen are under investigation for links to the operation of LaGeo and its shady privatization.

Then there's recent news that El Salvador's homicide rate should decrease once again in 2013, largely as a result of the gang truce. On Monday, President Mauricio Funes said that there had been 2,426 killings in 2013, 2,543 in 2012 and 4,354 in 2011. If the figures are up-to-date, the murder rate will end the year right at 40 per 100,000 which is down significantly from the ~70 in 2011.

President Funes also reported that poverty decreased by four percentage points in 2013, from 33 percent to 29 percent. Extreme poverty decreased 3.5 percentage points between 2008 and 2013 as well. The data come from the Household Survey and General Purposes of the Statistics and Census Bureau of the Ministry of the Economy. If true, the decrease came in spite of low growth and job creation; the decrease was caused instead by the implementation of government social programs.

Crime down. Poverty down. Corruption investigations now finally moving forward. I'd be more comfortable with Oscar Ortiz heading the FMLN ticket, but given a choice between ARENA's Quijano, UNIDAD's Saca, and the FMLN's Sanchez Ceren, I wouldn't find it at all surprising if Salvadorans voted for Sanchez Ceren and the FMLN with full knowledge of how they have governed the past five years and how they are likely to govern the next five years.

Disasters as Crisis Triggers for Critical Junctures? The 1976 Guatemala Case

I finally got around to reading Disasters as Crisis Triggers for Critical Junctures? The 1976 Guatemala Case by Vincent T. Gawronski and Richard Stuart Olson. The article was published in Latin American Politics and Society earlier this year. They argue that the 1976 earthquake which killed approximately 25,000 was followed by a high degree of community organizing in the weeks and months following the quake to tend to the needs of the survivors. The military was somewhat divided as to how to respond to the mobilization given that there was also guerrilla organizing going on simultaneously. Eventually those officers who supported a brute force response won out over those who preferred a more moderate response.

In the case of Guatemala, the 1976 earthquake disaster clearly triggered an unprecedented amount of community self-organizing, particularly in indigenous areas, that the leadership of the Guatemalan national security state perceived as a crisis, especially when some of that self-organizing began linking to ongoing as well as new antigovernment movements and guerrilla organizations. The sense of crisis in the Guatemalan national security state was then exacerbated by intramilitary rifts in the Laugerud presidency over how to respond: moderately (a combination of development and reconstruction projects and targeted repression) or extremely (full-scale repression - the "100 percenter" solution).

The eventual choice, reflecting a victory of the 100 percenters in the Laugerud government, was to engage in full-scale repression, which also explains why Laugerud appeared to be one person in 1974-76 and another person in 1977-78. Thus internal victory by the 100 percenters then led to the installation of the ferociously repressive governments o Garcia (1978-1982) and Rios Montt (1982-83). The legacy of that postearthquake 1977-1978 internal shift and the choice to pursue full-scale, and substantially blind, repression became a Guatemala nationally traumatized by polarization, fear, violence, genocide, and forced exile. That legacy, sadly, still influences present-day Guatemala 36 years later, and it bespeaks the need for much more focused research on Guatemalan intramilitary decisionmaking, then and now.

It is an interesting paper. I think that the authors could have better addressed other political (guerrilla strengthening), economic (growth, oil crisis,), and international (Nicaraguan revolution) factors that contributed to the increase in mobilization and violence in the late 1970s. And, while the authors call for more comparative studies on natural disasters and critical junctures, they lost quite an opportunity to do so themselves by introducing comparisons to Nicaragua's 1972 and El Salvador's 1986 earthquakes.

Guatemala adds a few thousand police

President Otto Perez Molina has said that he wants to deploy 35,000 police throughout the country before his four-year term is over. Guatemala currently counts with 30,000 police. That will bring them up to 193 police per 100,000, still short of the internationally recommended number of 222 per 100,000 but better. It would also be higher than the 33,500 number that I was working with given his campaign pledge to increase the force by 10,000.

Adding 5K to an already undertrained and weak #Guatemala #police might be doing more harm than good. @CentAmPolMike http://t.co/AREnr0A66j
— Christopher Bielecki (@Chris_Bielecki) December 22, 2013

However, we all know that it is not just about adding police. Guatemala needs to continue to remove corrupt police officers which it is doing but it doesn't appear that it is doing it at nearly the same rate as the previous administration (fewer corrupt police to remove?). They are still poorly paid and susceptible to corruption. They still like to ask foreigners for a mordita.

Of the 7,000 police added by Perez Molina, 4,000 still do not have weapons. They are a very young force. Given the 7,000 police added under Perez Molina and the 6,000 or so under Alvaro Colom, over 40 percent of the police has no more than six years in the job.

Adding police is necessary but the challenge is more than adding warm bodies.

Hondurans return to the polls and the winner is…?

I wrote and submitted this op-ed about 48 hours after the elections in Honduras. It was never published so I figured that I might as well put it up now. Basically everyone should simply have let the count of votes play itself out in Honduras before proclaiming themselves the winner (Castro and Hernandez) and congratulating the winner (regional presidents).

On Sunday, Hondurans went to the polls to elect a new president, 128 members of congress, 298 mayors and vice-mayors, and representatives to the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN). With two-thirds of the vote counted, it appears that Juan Orlando Hernandez of the governing National Party defeated Xiomara Castro de Zelaya of Liberty and Refoundation Party (Libre) and several other candidates with 34 percent of the vote, 5 percentage points over his nearest rival. Observers hoped that the elections would not only choose the officials who would govern Honduras for the next four years, but would begin to heal the wounds that have remained open since former President Manuel Zelaya was removed in a coup in June 2009. Unfortunately, neither the campaign leading up to Sunday’s vote nor what has transpired since should make one confident that Hondurans or the international community are ready to move on.

In 2009, President Manuel Zelaya of the Liberal Party, the Supreme Court, congress, and the business community were engaged in a confrontation over the political and economic direction of the country. Many feared that President Zelaya’s desire to hold a constitutional referendum and, when that didn’t work, a non-binding poll on whether to hold a referendum were designed to reform the constitution so as to allow for the possibility of presidential re-election. Zelaya’s immediate re-election would have allowed him to cement the country’s political and economic relationship with the Venezuelan-led Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA). The Supreme Court then ordered the military to remove Zelaya and expel him from the country before he could carry out the vote.

In the aftermath of the coup, an interim government took charge until elections brought Porfirio Lobo of the National Party to the presidency. Instead of righting the ship, the security situation continued to deteriorate. Drug trafficking, organized crime, gangs, economic disputes, corruption, and government repression helped make Honduras the most dangerous country in the world with a murder rate of approximately 85 per 100,000. Poverty and inequality, which had improved slightly during the Zelaya administration, worsened over the next four years. The Lobo government struggled to pay police, the military and government employees. Honduras suffers from dangerous levels of violence, impunity, poverty and inequality, which many hoped that the 2013 elections would help them to address.

However, the campaign was marked by high levels of violence. In the run up to Sunday’s vote, journalists, party activists, and candidates were killed. A human rights group, Rights Action, compiled an incomplete list of party members killed in the months leading up to the election. They found that at least 36 people were killed. Eighteen victims were associated with the Libre Party. Libre was formed by Zelaya’s supporters from the Liberal Party as well as a number of individuals and groups who mobilized in response to the coup. Rights Action also recorded at least 24 armed attacks against party-affiliated individuals, including 15 against Libre-related individuals. The National Lawyers Guild “expressed alarm about consolidation of power over the electoral process by the National Party, which has controlled the judiciary, the military, and the Congress since the 2009 military coup.” In December 2012, Congress illegally dismissed four members of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice because they had disagreed with their rulings. Allegations of fraud surrounded the National Party’s primary election of Juan Orlando Hernandez ten months ago. The 2009 coup and subsequent repression, the strengthening of the National Party’s grip over the country’s political institutions, and Hernandez’ questionable primary victory all set the stage for Sunday’s vote. While incumbent political parties often have advantages against opposition challengers, the situation in Honduras went well beyond “politics as usual.”

Election day posed its own set of challenges. Hours before the vote, two election workers, who were active members of Libre, were shot and killed. The properties of Radio Globo and other independent radio stations were surrounded by the military in what was clearly perceived as acts of intimidation rather than protection. While many international observers reported that voting occurred without significant difficulties, including the Organization of American States and the European Union, others questioned the fairness of the elections throughout the day. Elections observers were denied admission to several polling stations. Several Hondurans were shot and killed close to a polling station in an eastern region of the country, Mosquitia. The National Lawyers Guild claims to have observed or to have received credible reports of vote buying and the buying of party credentials – “This threatens the integrity of the election process as individuals staffing the voting tables were in charge of counting ballots at the end of the day. There were also reports of the distribution of gratuities to National Party supporters. The NLG also documented inconsistencies with voter rolls and vote tabulations.”

Then after polls closed and with about 25 percent of the vote counted, presidential candidates Xiomara Castro de Zelaya of Libre and Juan Orlando Hernandez of the governing National Party each declared victory. Hernandez announced victory based on the results of exit polls and official results while Castro declared victory based upon the results of exit polls and unofficial results that had been transmitted to the party. With Hernandez ahead, according to voting authorities, Castro and Salvador Nasralla of the Anti-Corruption Party (PAC) declared fraud. They claimed that the votes counted by representatives of the political parties at the polling stations did not match the results announced by the electoral authorities. Some might have been off by as much as 20 percent. Castro has so far refused to accept the official results. As reported by Gabriel Stargardter and Gustavo Palencia, Castro’s husband, former President Manuel Zelaya, declared that "We are going to defend our triumph at the ballot box and if necessary will take to the streets” and that "We will seek a recount ballot box by ballot box, booth by booth, town by town.” There is little indication that Libre and the left are ready to concede the election and to begin to work with the new government. Until Libre presents its evidence and the electoral bodies rule on the fraud allegations, Hondurans and the international community should treat the results as tentative.

It’s not exactly clear whether the new government is interested in working with the opposition anyway.  As students at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Honduras protest the outcome of the election, the government has sent in riot police with tear gas. Previous conflicts in 2009 and 2012 resulted in the sacking of the president and Supreme Court Justices. One must remain hopeful that Hondurans will be able to work together, but radical differences in political, economic, and security policies and the uncertainty around the election make that unlikely.

And it was not just the Honduran presidential candidates who declared victory prematurely. The presidents of Colombia, Panama, Guatemala, and Nicaragua each congratulated Hernandez on his victory. Given the controversy surrounding the 2009 coup and the violence of the ensuing years, as well as the alleged fraud on election day, it was inexcusable for the region’s presidents to congratulate Hernandez. Less than 50 percent of the vote had been tallied with two of the top four candidates, one associated with the left and one with the right, claiming fraud. Their congratulatory calls gave the appearance that they were ready to move on as quickly as possible and that they were uninterested in a final vote count or sorting through any irregularities. While the US government was much better in calling for patience until all the ballots had been counted and legal challenges pursued, both prior to and following Sunday’s vote, its characterization of the vote as “transparent” seems to have been a stretch. The election was close enough and the tension high enough that the Honduran people deserved better.

Forty-eight hours after the close of voting, it appears as if Juan Orlando Hernandez will be the next president of Honduras. He leads by five points over his closest competitor Xiomara Castro. Unless there was serious ballot box fraud, it is highly unlikely that the remaining uncounted votes are going to change the outcome. I am not one who believes that victory by Xiomara Castro and Libre is necessary for Honduras to move forward. However, unfortunately, the campaign, the vote itself, the odd 48 hours that have followed, and the fact that approximately 65 percent of the voters did not choose the winning candidate, means that the next president is starting off on some shaky ground, none of which is helpful in governing over one of the region’s poorest and most violent countries.

Did the truce cause gangs to become involved in the drug trade or was it the failed peace?

According to Insight Crime, the Salvadoran police are concerned that gangs "are "mutating" and becoming more deeply involved in drug trafficking, a development that adds to fears the gangs have used the truce between them to increase their strength and reach." First, I wonder about causality. Did the truce cause El Salvador's gangs to become (more) involved in the drug trade or would the gangs have gotten involved in the drug trade even without a truce? Would the gangs have gotten involved in the drug trade had there been more progress in transforming the truce into a real peace? In effect, did the truce cause gangs to become more involved or did the failure to move beyond a truce cause them to turn to drug trafficking?

Second, if the truce collapses, whose fault is it? It was going to be a tall challenge to transform a truce among 60,000 gang members and their 400,000 dependents into a viable peace. That's a lot of people in a country of six million governed by a weak government that was seeking to overcome high levels of poverty, slow growth, corruption and many other challenges. It might have collapsed under the best of circumstances.

However, it appears pretty clear that the Funes administration, the political parties, private sector, civil society and the international community did not commit the resources necessary into transforming the truce into a peace. It's not that they didn't try anything; it's just that their efforts were less than what was needed.

Third, of those gang members who have moved into drug trafficking or who have continued to kill, how many of them were part of the truce all along? Are these individuals who were involved in designing the truce or are they subordinates who are just not good at listening?

Finally, if some gang members have moved into drug trafficking and the truce does collapse, will the government be able to prevent some of the 60,000 from returning to gang life (if any left it in the first place) and to prevent a resurgence of the violence that existed prior to March 2012? In effect, what is plan B?

Salvadoran Ambassador to the United States Ruben Zamora has an op-ed in the Christian Science Monitor defending the Salvadoran government's position on the gang truce which I can't quite say that I buy just yet.

But we maintain that the government of El Salvador did not negotiate the truce; rather it was done by civil society groups. And our administration did not compromise law enforcement and criminal prosecution.

Attorney General Luis Martinez is investigating various public security officials in El Salvador, including David Munguia Payes, for turning a blind eye to gang operations, for pressuring others to do the same, and for political espionage. Ambassador Zamora's op-ed was clearly a response to these developments. However, he was also calling on the US government to take a lead in tackling gang violence in the 21st century.

We are simply looking for more effective and innovative tools to combat violent crime that take into account the social roots of the phenomenon. From our perspective, the prevention of violence through alleviating socioeconomic factors among our youth and the discussion of solutions within the community should be the main topic of discussion on how to improve citizen security in the Americas.

Based on our experience, we believe that the Western hemisphere needs – and deserves – an open discussion on alternative approaches to combating gangs and promoting national and regional security. In that sense, the US could become a leading force in bringing new ideas and encouraging the debate on alternative approaches. This means building a new hemispheric agenda that prioritizes the common socioeconomic challenges in the Americas.

El Salvador’s – and Central America’s – relations with the US cannot overlook the root causes, such as youth marginalization, that facilitate crime on both sides of the border. This might require a breakaway from outdated ideas that limit security initiatives to police operations, intelligence gathering, and military capabilities. But to improve the lives of millions of youth in the Americas and combat international gang activity, it is a risk worth taking.

What this means exactly, I don't know. Maybe the Ambassador can elaborate?

No more "El Tigre" in Honduras

I spoke with several journalists about the situation in Honduras over the last few months. They were trying to figure out exactly what was going on with regards to Juan Carlos Bonilla, aka El Tigre. He is the chief of police in Honduras who allegedly oversaw death squads in the early 2000s.

The (Senator) Leahy Law pretty much said that the US should have cut off aid given his background and his police's ongoing involvement in human rights abuses. However, the US did not cut off aid.

In an October 10th email I wrote

I don't have any inside information. My best guess is that the US is simply waiting until next month's elections to see what happens with the expectation that Bonilla will be gone sometime afterwards.

For some reason, my comments never made it into their news stories. However, guess who was fired today?

President Porfirio Lobo on Thursday fired Honduras' national police chief, who has long faced accusations he ran death squads when he was a lower-level officer and whose force has been hit with frequent abuse claims.

Lobo said he made the decision to remove Gen. Juan Carlos Bonilla in consultations with President-elect Juan Orlando Hernandez, who takes office Jan. 27.

The US interrupted much of its assistance to Honduras after the 2009 coup. That did not work out well as drug trafficking and overall levels of violence increased. I speculated that the US feared a similar outcome in 2013 should it cut off military and police aid and that it was more than likely that the US was simply waiting to see what was going to happen following November's presidential election. It did not make sense to cut off assistance for a few months if the incoming president was going to replace Bonilla and then the US would have to jump through all sorts of hoops just to reinstate the aid.

Well, I can't say that I am always right. However, I pretty much called this one. Now there's no smoking gun (yet) that directly links Bonilla's firing to US pressure but, hey, it's close enough. And it's not as if removing Bonilla solves the many challenges that Honduras confronts. However, we can deal with that tomorrow.

Guatemala tops femicide list...I guess

We all know Guatemala is a dangerous country, particularly for women. However, using the title Guatemala tops ‘femicide’ list in Central America just isn't really that accurate.

During the past decade, the number of women appearing in these articles has been rapidly increasing – so much so that a recent report found that more femicides occur in Guatemala than in any other country in Central America. A study by human rights organizations across the region found that in the past year 707 women have been murdered in Guatemala, followed by 606 in Honduras and 321 in El Salvador.

What's missing? Population, of course. Guatemala's population is approximately 15.5 million. El Salvador's population is about 6.2 million. And Honduras' population is about 8 million.

So there were about 9 women murdered per 100,000 women in Guatemala (based on an estimated 7.75 million women). There were about 10 women murdered per 100,000 women in El Salvador (based on an estimated 3.1 million women). And there were about 15 women murdered per 100,000 women in Honduras (based on an estimated 4 million women).

When looking at total murders, Guatemala looks like the most violent country among the three. That is why it tops the "femicide" list. However, once population is taken into account, it clearly is not.

And the 707 number is not just homicides but includes other violent deaths. The National Civilian Police reported fewer than 600 murders of women in Guatemala in 2012 (7.75 per 100,000). Don't get me started on the fact that the numbers also show femicide, after peaking in 2009, decreased in Guatemala in 2010, in 2011, and again in 2012. I know that it might be higher this year but that doesn't mean we shouldn't accurately describe the past.

And none of this makes Guatemala a safe place for women...we know that it is not. Being less violent than El Salvador and Honduras should not be the yardstick for measuring insecurity.

CICIG goes after corruption in Guatemala's political parties

CICIG recently announced that one of its main priorities during its remaining two years was to uncover the links between organized crime and political campaigns. CICIG is going to be looking into campaign financing which should make just about every political party uneasy and every citizen happy. However, the announcement sounded somewhat odd given what we thought that they had been doing for the last six years.

Yesterday, President Otto Perez Molina reiterated that CICIG instead should focus on mayors with ties to narcotrafficking. Vice President Roxanna Baldetti made that suggestion just a few days ago. They do not believe that CICIG has enough time and resources to complete its current investigations, help with transforming the country's legal institutions, and open a new front in the war on political party financing. I am sure VP Baldetti probably just does not want CICIG investigating her.

Investigating narcotrafficking's relationship with municipal government and campaign financing are both important areas that need attention from CICIG. If I had to choose, I would follow CICIG's lead and go big. CICIG will probably have more success investigating individual mayors and their connections to drug trafficking and organized crime but when it comes to transforming the system in Guatemala, there's no better place to start to learning where all the political contributions are coming from and what they are buying.

Challenging the Guatemalan Patriarchal State through Reforms to Sexual Violence Legislation

Sarah England recently published an article on Protecting a Woman’s Honor or Protecting Her Sexual Freedom? Challenging the Guatemalan Patriarchal State through Reforms to Sexual Violence Legislation in Latin American Perspectives. Here is the abstract in English and Spanish:

The coming of peace in Central America after several decades of civil war and military dictatorships has not resulted in an end to violence. Murder rates have risen to such a degree that these countries are among the most violent in the world. One form of violence that has received a great deal of attention is the murder of women, but many argue that this is only one of many forms of violence that women face on a daily basis. The women’s organizations that have emerged in Guatemala since the end of the civil war have focused on demanding greater political and economic rights for women and laws that recognize violence against women as a crime and improve the mechanisms for investigating and prosecuting it. Two recent laws redefine sex crimes in such a way as to suggest that they should be seen as heinous acts regardless of the woman’s sexual history, character, or age. Though these discursive changes are a triumph, problems with the legal system and the persistence of sexist ideologies have so far limited the effectiveness of these new laws.

La llegada de la paz a Centroamérica tras varias décadas de guerra civil y dictaduras militares no ha puesto fin a la violencia. El índice de asesinatos ha aumentado a tal grado que estos países se encuentran entre los más violentos del mundo. Una forma de violencia que ha recibido mucha atención es el femicidio, pero muchos argumentan que esta es sólo una entre muchas formas de violencia que las mujeres enfrentan a diario. Las organizaciones de mujeres que han surgido en Guatemala desde el fin de la guerra civil se han centrado en demandar mayores derechos políticos y económicos para las mujeres y leyes que reconozcan como delito la violencia contra la mujer, mejorando los mecanismos de investigación y justicia. Dos leyes recientes redefinen los delitos sexuales de tal forma que sugieren que pueden considerarse actos atroces sin importar la edad, carácter o historia sexual de la mujer. Aunque estos cambios discursivos representan un triunfo, los problemas con el sistema legal y la persistencia de ideologías machistas han limitado, hasta ahora, la eficacia de estas nuevas leyes.

Sarah's article is one in a special issue on Violence against Women in Latin America. According to the Coordinadora 25 de Noviembre, murders of women in Guatemala increased over 20 percent during the first ten months of the year compared to 2012.

Daniel Ortega: I'd be happy to throw in my first-born child as well

Look I hope that the proposed canal through Nicaragua works out well for the Nicaraguan people - minimal environmental damage, good jobs, increased revenue, and all that other stuff. I have my doubts but I hope that if they do go forward with the project it will succeed.

And I understand that the Nicaraguan government needs to offer some incentives to investors in order to go forward with the project but have you taken a look at what the government is offering?

After three days of discussion in June, the National Assembly controlled by Ortega’s Sandinista party approved giving Beijing-based telecommunications CEO Wang Jing a 50-year renewable concession to build a canal more than three times the length of the Panama Canal, as well as tax-free side projects including ports on Nicaragua’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts, an oil pipeline bisecting the country, a cargo railway, two free-trade zones and an international airport.

The deal pays Nicaragua $10 million a year for 10 years and gradually transfers ownership to Nicaragua, handing over 100 percent after a century. But the payments and the transfer only begin if and when the canal begins operation. Under the agreement, Wang can skip building the canal altogether but plow ahead with the other projects.

....

The legislation allows Wang to petition the state to confiscate any land needed. It requires him to pay owners the assessed value, but much of the property outside major cities has never been officially assessed, risking what private businesses fear could be a land grab for pennies on the dollar.

Nicaragua is required to compensate Wang for legal changes that delay the canal or cause it to lose money. Compensation can come from state coffers, including the reserves of the central bank, under a waiver of Nicaragua’s sovereign immunity.

On the one hand, I imagine that these tasty concessions are the sort that US investors receive moving into new countries that are desperate for foreign direct investment. On the other hand, could you imagine the outrage in this case if the investor were US-based?

Guatemala Today: Rigoberta Menchu Tum

The video above is from a talk that Rigoberta Menchu Tum gave on Guatemala Today: Challenges to Lasting Peace. The November 16, 2009 talk was sponsored by the Peace & Justice Distinguished Lecture Series of the Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace & Justice at the University of San Diego.

In other news, Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina recently returned from a state visit to Israel. Perez Molina visited a number of holy sites but the main thrust of his visit was economic- and security-related. The president was being joined by Luis Fernando Carrera Castro, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Manuel Lopez Ambrocio, Minister of Defense; Elmer Lopez Rodriguez, Minister of Agriculture and George Tanenbaum, President of the Guatemala Jewish Community.

On Tuesday, President Perez Molina gave an address on peace in Guatemala which goes well against with Menchu's talk above. According to the Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Ofir Akunis (Likud) who met the delegation at the airport since everybody else was out of town,

Molina was known as a great soldier and statesman who is now trying to solve the problems still confronting his country. Peres who visited Guatemala several years ago, and was charmed by its beauty, expressed satisfaction that the civil war in Guatemala is now history and that the nation with its diverse cultures and ethnic populations has been reconciled and united.

 But the news that dominated a bit of his trip was a visit to occupied East Jerusalem.

"We will not accept any attempt to legitimize Israel's occupation policies, particularly in East Jerusalem. The visit of the President of Guatemala to the occupied Palestinian capital in coordination with the Israeli foreign ministry is unacceptable and contradicts Guatemala's obligations according to the Geneva Conventions, the Rome Statue and the ICJ opinion on the Wall, as well as Security Council resolutions 476 and 478, among others" said Erekat.

"What is even more worrying is the statement delivered by the Guatemalan Foreign Ministry which attempted to justify the visit. The statement supported a narrative far removed from reality and demonstrated severe misconceptions that have little to do with international law. Guatemala should know better, especially given the fact that the vast majority of Latin America has a clear position regarding Palestine, firmly grounded in international law and UN resolutions."

Erekat concluded, "Palestine has made a formal complaint to Guatemala on the matter. We consider this visit, along with the statement issued by the Foreign Ministry, tantamount to accepting the Israeli annexation of occupied East Jerusalem. We will take all necessary steps within the international arena and in conjunction with our partners in Latin America, the Non Aligned Movement, the Organization of the Islamic Conference and the Arab League, in order to make it clear that East Jerusalem is a red line for billions of people worldwide."

Meanwhile back in Guatemala pharmaceutical residue (acetaminophen, caffeine, dexketoprofen, phenylephrine and ibuprofen) has been found in the Villalobos and Las Vacas rivers

Discovery of mass grave in El Salvador

I mentioned this on Twitter the other day but authorities in El Salvador are in the process of uncovering a mass grave in El Salvador that has the remains of over forty victims of gang violence. It sounds as if a number of the remains are of gang members but there are non-gang victims as well. The head of the attorney general's crime unit said that they have so far uncovered the remains of two old men and three children. They believe the gang responsible is an "offshoot" of the 18th Street gang.

People are going to use the discovery of the mass grave to reinforce what they already think of the truce. The mass grave is more evidence that the March 2012 gang truce was never real - gang members were simply disposing of their bodies so that the victims could be found. On the other hand, it could be argued that the discovery of the mass grave is a result of a lack of support for the truce from the government, private sector, civil society and the international community. Sure there are some representatives of each that are participating in the truce, but to say that support is widespread and at the level necessary to transform the truce into a true peace would not be accurate.

I was optimistic that the truce was going to lower homicide levels in El Salvador and it sure seems to have done so. Homicide rates fell from about 70 per 100k in 2011 to approximately 41 per 100k in 2012. While homicide rates are not the only measure of the truce's effectiveness, would maintaining a rate of 40-50 still be considered successful? El Salvador's murder rate would still be higher than that of neighboring Guatemala (~35) but it would be significantly lower than where it was two years ago and significantly lower than that of neighboring Honduras (~85).

FMLN favored in the first round in El Salvador but...

Today's poll results released by the University of Central America bring good and bad news for the FMLN.

When voters are asked which candidate they intend to vote for in February, the FMLN's Salvador Sánchez Cerén leads with 38.4%. He is followed by ARENA's Norman Quijano with 33.4% and Unity's Tony Saca with 16.6%. Óscar Lemus (1.3%) of the Fuerza Patriota Salvadoreña (FPS) and René Rodríguez Hurtado (0.8%) of the Partido Progresista Salvadoreño (PSP) bring up the rear. Ten percent would not vote for any of the candidate or would abstain.

When using a simulated ballot, the FMLN occupies first place with 43.7%. The Frente is followed by ARENA at 36.2%. Tony Saca and Unity pick up the rear with 13.9%.

Finally, when voters are asked which party they intend to vote for, 38.7% say the FMLN, 31.3% ARENA, and 12% Unity. That's the good news for the incumbent FMLN. No matter how you ask about the vote, the FMLN comes out on top.

However, given that the winner needs to secure 50% of the total vote plus one, we all want to know about the likely outcome of a runoff. In a runoff between the top two parties, ARENA actually comes out slightly ahead here at 45.4% to 44.8%. However, the difference is within the margin of error so let's not get too worked up about it just yet - it's still anybody's ballgame.

And when voters are asked to choose between Sanchez Ceren and Tony Saca, 44.8% went with Sanchez Ceren and 37.2% for Saca. In a runoff between Quijano and Saca, 40.9% are inclined to vote for Quijano and 32.6% for Saca. These two scenarios are unlikely but one never knows given the difficulties within ARENA where the hits keep on coming.

In the last few weeks, investigations have been opened (one way or another) into former presidents Francisco Flores and Tony Saca as well as several other ARENA connected government officials and businessmen. Quijano is being looked at for misuse of funds as well. Then there's Quijano's vice presidential candidate, Rene Portillo Cuadra, who recently had to deny to the press that he was considering removing himself from the ticket. Today, ARENA officials announced that Flores was going to be leaving the Quijano campaign where he has been working as as advisor in order to fight allegations that he pocketed $10 million attend to personal matters.

It's going to be another exciting two months.

Has the FMLN government been an economic failure?

Let me just say that I found this interview by Elaine Freedman with economist César Villalona very persuasive. In Has the FMLN government been an economic failure?, Villalona tackles debt, the deficit, capital flight, investor confidence, public spending, poverty, and taxes/tax evasion among other important topics.

Here's a taste:

EF: But Miguel Lacayo insists that “There are more poor people, more unemployed and less optimism about the future today than when Funes and the FMLN took the helm of this country.” And Salvador Samayoa adds that “right from the start of his mandate the President completely misplaced the papers related to his main promise: job creation. And the people have felt the effects. In the last opinion survey by JBS Market Research for El Diario de Hoy, 92% of those polled said the employment situation is the same or worse. It’s an overwhelming figure. And it’s no trick or manipulation of the figures, like others do when consolidating answers for the benefit of their own arguments. In this ‘same or worse’ figure the vast majority of people (68.5%) think the employment situation is worse.” What do you think about this?

CV: The Multi-Purpose Household Survey, conducted every year since the seventies by the Economy Ministry’s General Directorate of Statistics and Censuses, reported a national poverty rate of 40% in 2008. In 2012 the rate had dropped to 34%. When President Funes took office, unemployment was calculated at 7.3%. In 2012 it was 6.1%. I’m referring to open employment here. Under-employment has neither risen nor fallen, remaining at 35-40%. Although that’s significant under-employment, Miguel Lacayo’s statement got things completely the wrong way round.

Certainly, the majority of people are still in a very difficult situation and the 34% poverty rate is still a high figure. For someone living in poverty, the fact that the rate has dropped a few percentage points doesn’t mean anything, because personally speaking the situation hasn’t changed. But that doesn’t mean that the overall situation in the country hasn’t improved.

Honestly, it's worth reading the entire interview. 

New Central American guerrillas and paramilitaries?

Is anybody worried about the emergence of these groups?

We have the “Patrulla 1856” and “Frente Patriotico para la Defensa Nacional” militias in Costa Rica.

Then there is the emergence of armed groups in Nicaragua which isn't entirely new - we've already seen Recompas  and Recontras. However, last week's shootout involving an armed group and the police which led to the deaths of ten people seems to have escalated the seriousness of the situation.

Last year we had news on the emergence of a new guerrilla group in El Salvador.

Just throwing the question out there.

Murder and corruption in Panama

Over 100 police officers accused of criminal activities, including the shooting and killing of unarmed civilians, have avoided prosecution during the current government because of Law 74 (See here, here, here and here.) Human rights advocates have asked for the repeal of Law 74 which protects police from prosecution.

In the meantime, prosecutors are now awaiting a decision to move ahead with homicide trials for twenty-four National Police officers. Several of the accused are on desk duty while others are "under office arrest, similar to house arrest." None of the twenty-four officers are in jail.

Obviously I don't want to overemphasize the implications but a decision to prosecute and convict a number of the accused will go a long way to demonstrating that no one is above the law in Panama.

Panama's Corruption Perceptions Index score from Transparency International recently dropped from 38 in 2012 to 35 in 2013, tied for 102nd in the world.

According to Haley Moncrief with BNamericas

Panama's economic growth and heavy investment in infrastructure projects like its US$5.25bn Panama Canal expansion is attracting investors' attention. The country is also the fastest growing in Latin America, boasting an average annual growth rate of 8.5%, and per capita GDP has more than doubled in the last decade, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Attracting foreign capital and companies has been a main priority of the administration of President Ricardo Martinelli. Yet a daunting and worsening corruption perception could thwart the country's efforts to reel in foreign capital, and taint its growing appeal.

Some of the country's corruption woes include a lack of judicial independence, issues with transparency - particularly regarding availability of Panamanian companies' ownership information - as well as the availability of accounting information regarding entities that do not receive Panamanian-source income.

I'd say that it probably doesn't help that several of the developing corruption scandals are tied directly to the president, members of his family, his administration and his political party. It's tough to see which of the charges are going to stick but the allegations can't help the perception of corruption in Panama.

Crime down in Belize but corruption is a different story

Crime rates have undergone a particularly significant decline with murders, rapes, robberies, and burglaries all down between January and the end of October 2013. National homicide statistics have fallen 26 percent while Belize City homicides are down over 50 percent.

“That is a huge come-down, but not as significant as the Belize City situation and, of course, in addition to commending the security forces, I make [the] point that Government’s infrastructure program, especially with respect to the Civic Center and Chetumal Street/Lake Independence Boulevard, has succeeded in creating huge employment. That’s as well responsible for the tremendous progress that we are making on the anti-crime front,” Barrow said.

At the same time, Belize has once again been excluded from Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index for the lack of data.

What’s astonishing is that Belize has been excluded from this year’s index, despite the number of scandals—that is, we are told, because government has not submitted any report to the organization. The only other country that has no ranking in the index is Western Sahara. The Chair of Transparency International, Huguette Labelle, has gone on record to say, (Quote) “it is time to stop those who get away with acts of corruption.  The legal loopholes and lack of political will in government facilitate both domestic and cross-border corruption, and call for our intensified efforts to combat the impunity of the corrupt.” (Unquote)

Click here for the latest on Belize's immigration scandal. I wrote about the situation at the end of October as well.

CIRMA's "temporary" closing in Antigua, Guatemala

El Salvador has recently been in the news with regards to threats to historic memory following the strange happenings at Tutela Legal and the attacks against Pro-Busqueda. Unfortunately, the threat to historic memory is still alive and well in Guatemala as well.

On December 1, the Centro de Investigaciones Regionales de Mesoamérica (CIRMA) released the following statement announcing its closing

Anuncia que después de más de tres décadas de servicio al público, y con el fin de asegurar la óptima conservación de sus acervos, ha emprendido reparaciones mayores y una completa renovación de su edificio.

Mientras duren las reparaciones, las colecciones de sus tres acervos, Biblioteca de Ciencias Sociales, Fototeca Guatemala, y Archivo Histórico, permanecerán en La Antigua Guatemala, en un ambiente con las condiciones de seguridad y preservación necesarias para su debida protección. El acceso a ellas será limitado, por lo que se les ruega a los interesados hacer una cita por medio de correo electrónico.   

CIRMA agradece su comprensión y espera con emoción compartir con todos los guatemaltecos sus instalaciones renovadas, mejoradas y dignas de los tesoros que resguarda y continuar sirviendo a sus apreciados usuarios como siempre lo ha hecho.

Se estarán publicando noticias periódicas de los avances de este proyecto de renovación en los medios sociales y a través del boletín informativo y la página web. A todos nuestros amigos que han colaborado con nosotros por más de tres décadas esperamos su futura participación en nuestra nueva y mejorada sede. Aprovechamos para desearles a todos unas felices fiestas y un próspero año nuevo!

 Para mayor información y consultas, por favor escríbanos a cirma@cirma.org.gt. Será un gusto atenderlo.         

CIRMA will close for an indefinite period of time for repairs. I took a tour of CIRMA earlier this year and then went to a reception there over the summer. While the facilities were not top of the line, there was little indication that such a closing was imminent or critical. Unfortunately, the situation sounds all too similar to the closing of Tutela Legal as this letter from concerned individuals makes clear.

We the below, concerned scholars of Guatemala and Latin America, are troubled by the recent, sudden closing for an indefinite period of the Centro de Investigaciones Regionales de Mesoamérica (CIRMA). The reason given for the action was that repairs had to be made on the institution’s physical plant.   

We are not in a position to assess the validity of the explanation, but the reports we have heard are disturbing, including that long-term employees of CIRMA were treated in a heavy-handed and disrespectful way during the closing, including having a heavily armed security guard at the door as they were being notified of the collective firing.

The lack of transparency and discussion that led up to and followed this action has likewise generated a series of rumors, which we can’t confirm but are nonetheless troubling. These include: 

● The fear that the documentary archive, or collections therein, will be scattered in different locations and/or transferred out of the country;

●  The fear that sensitive archives such as the collections on the armed conflict may not be protected out of political motives.

●  That “donated” or “on loan” collections of documents and photography are being illegally handled (many of CIRMA's collections have the status of Patrimonio Nacional, and all are governed by convenios signed by donors and the institution, many of which stipulate making the collection available to the public as a condition of the donation);  and that donors of important collections are petitioning for a return of their materials (we’ve heard reports that the Arévalo family has taken steps to retrieve its collection and that Julio Cambranes’ documents have been removed) – which will have a chilling effect on future donations.

Whatever the truth of the above fears and rumors, what is clear is that the archives will be unavailable for consultation for one to two years at a crucial time: collections held by CIRMA are providing key supporting documentation in the trial of Rios Montt and other high-profile human rights cases.

CIRMA’s closing also takes place during a particularly inopportune time for the region as a whole. In El Salvador, Tutela Legal’s human rights archive has recently been closed, shortly followed by the destruction (by an armed group) of the archives of Probusqueda, an NGO that investigates the location of children kidnapped by the Salvadoran military during that country’s civil war. In Guatemala last year, Otto Pérez Molina closed the Archivos de la Paz within SEPAZ.

We believe the shuttering of CIRMA – whatever the conditions that precipitated it -- contributes to the current threat facing the recovery of historical memory in Central America.    The anger and confusion in Guatemala’s scholarly community over CIRMA’s closing – and the manner in which it was carried out – is palpable. 

The loss of CIRMA’s archive and library would be devastating to Guatemala and a violation of its cultural and historical patrimony – no less so than the selling off of stolen historical documents in international auction houses.  

We are even more concerned that prosecutors and lawyers involved in human rights cases continue to have access to relevant information.  

We ask not just for clarification but a commitment to 1. keep the collections intact and in country; 2. respect relevant national laws governing archives as well as the specific convenios of each collection; 3. make CIRMA’s archive accessible as soon as possible to researchers in its temporary location; and 4. allow prosecutors and other legal workers access to relevant documents related to legal cases. 

In short, we are asking CIRMA to live up to its own “fundamental value” of transparency, as stated on its website. 

We understand that the maintenance of CIRMA, its archive, photograph collection, and library has entailed a significant financial burden.  And we appreciate that a new form of financing and governance might be necessary, but that process should include the wider community of Guatemalan and Guatemalanist scholars.

If these issues are not addressed, we will request that the Latin American Studies Association convene a committee of inquiry to assess the situation.

I received this information over the Thanksgiving break so if anyone has an update on the situation, please leave it in the comments or email me directly.

Remember when Guatemala was going to finish 2013 with 200 more homicides than last year?

Remember when Guatemala was going to finish 2013 with 200 more homicides than last year? Well, given a pretty non-homicidal November, the difference is now 136 when using INACIF's autopsy data. Taking Guatemala's population growth into consideration, it is becoming increasingly likely that the 2013 homicide rate per 100,000 Guatemalans will end up being the same as that of 2012.

Carlos Mendoza also recently posted a geographic representation of the homicide rate for women in Guatemala.

The map overlaps pretty well with homicides in general, don't you think? The borders with El Salvador and Honduras, the Caribbean coast, and Peten.

Two men were found guilty and sentenced to over one hundred years in jail for the murders of two women and two young girls in January.

Central American Americans

Norma Stoltz Chinchilla and Nora Hamilton have what looks to be an interesting paper on Identity Formation Among Central American Americans. Here's part of their conclusion:

The individual stories of the Central American Americans we interviewed are unique, and their specific trajectories distinguish them from the general population of young Central Americans in the United States. Nevertheless, certain patterns can be identified in comparing them, both with other Central American 1.5 and second generation immigrants, and with each other.

First, similar to other Central American Americans arriving in the 1980s and early 1990s, many of our interviewees had left countries in the midst of conflict and in some cases had been traumatized by their experiences of war and persecution. Like others, they and/or their parents were often undocumented and confronted the reluctance of the U.S. government to recognize them as refugees. Most of their parents worked long hours in low wage jobs, and many lived in neighborhoods where poverty, the presence of gangs, underperforming schools, and low expectations were often the norm. Several had friends among gang members, and some became involved in gangs themselves. Tensions with other ethnic groups, and even other Latino groups, were not uncommon. Some also experienced abuse and violence within their families.

At the same time, there are several factors shared by these young Central Americans which differentiate them from others in their cohort and help to explain why their trajectories deviated from what is generally considered the norm. Many received encouragement from individual teachers or counselors which reinforced their interest in their education and their ambition to excel. They also took advantage of various programs which expanded their knowledge and understanding of different opportunities and options available and further prepared them to enter college. Some received support from their parents, many of whom had only completed grade school, as well as encouragement from friends and peer groups.

Finally, these Central American-Americans have generally thought about issues related to identity. They do not necessarily see themselves as bound by a single identity, but generally claim multiple identities which they can invoke according to the situation. Many of these young Central Americans differentiated themselves from the older generation as being more inclusive, open to cooperation with different national and ethnic groups, and often less preoccupied with conditions in the home countries and more concerned with Central Americans and other ethnic and minority groups in the United States. Furthermore, ethnic identities are not the only, or often even the major, type of identity; personal, professional, or various types of group identities might be equally or more important. Thus college students who organized to obtain legal status “came out” and openly identified themselves as undocumented – often after many years of struggling to hide their undocumented status, signaling a new political and personal identity. Families and community could be sources of identity formation, Although some parents downplayed their Salvadoran and Guatemalan identities - whether due to their undocumented status or the trauma they had experienced and wished to forget, and often as a means of protecting their children - other families chose to embrace their ethnic and national identities. 

In related news, did you know that the driver of the car in which Paul Walker died over the holidays was originally from El Salvador? Roger Rodas . He was a native of Santa Ana who, among other things, established a foundation to assist widows and orphans in El Salvador. Just don't go searching the internet for conspiracy theories.

Former ARENA president under investigation

El Salvador's Attorney General is looking into allegations that former President Francisco Flores misused approximately $10 million in donations from Taiwan between 2003-2004. Flores was president representing the ARENA party between 1999 and 2004. During his term, El Salvador received $10 million from Taiwan in order to help a Salvadoran government agency register land for poor farmers. Unfortunately, the money never made it to the state agency. Guatemala's President Alfonso Portillo was extradited to the US earlier this year to face charges that he misused had funds from Taiwan as well. Must be something in the water.

Flores has been leading the charge in the US against a new Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact and is currently Norman Quijano's campaign director. ARENA presidential candidate Quijano is under investigation as well for the misuse of funds. Former ARENA President Tony Saca appears to have gotten filthy rich while president but the Constitutional Court is going to let the voters decide whether he should return to the presidency. Just about everyone connected to ARENA is under investigation for something right now. It is sort of what we expected when Mauricio Funes was elected. I just don't think that we expected the investigations to take nearly five years into Funes' term to be realized.

El Salvador's score on Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index 2013 remained the same from 2012. It scored 38 out of 100 with 100 being the better score.

More to come.

'Life Is Worth Nothing in Guatemala' or is it?

Lianne Milton has a photo essay at Newsweek that has a good number of photos on everyday violence and life in Guatemala. However, the title of the piece - 'Life Is Worth Nothing in Guatemala' is offensive unless, that is, you mean the exact opposite. According to the writer, it is apparently common to say En Guatemala, la vida no vale nada. I can't say that I had ever heard the phrase.

However, it sure doesn't reflect the reality of the Guatemalan people. I can't help but compare Milton's photos and commentary with those of James Rodriguez whose latest essay is on exhuming and reburying victims of the armed conflict in Alta Verapaz. People have worked so hard to find the disappeared and to provide them with a proper burial. It just seems the opposite of life is worth nothing. (I know that's not who she was talking about.) I don't know, maybe I am thinking too much into this.

Violence 
Guatemala's murder rate peaked in 2009 at 46 per 100,000 before decreasing in 2010 (41), 2011 (39), and 2012 (34). According to a recent study, Guatemala City even dropped out of the ranking of The 50 Most Deadly Cities in the World. Unfortunately, Guatemala looks poised to finish 2013 at around 35 per 100,000.

Impunity
Milton also cites a Human Rights Watch report that says that 98 percent of crimes in the country go unpunished. While we don't know the denominator (how many crimes are actually committed), the Public Prosecutor's Office and the CICIG say that impunity has improved quite significantly over the last six years. Impunity now stands at 70 percent or so.

Corruption
I'm still waiting for the hatchet to come down on Alvaro Colom. El Periodico had said that his legacy to Guatemala was corruption. I argued instead that he was leaving the country in better shape than he had found it and that his administration was less corrupt than those of Portillo and Berger. Transparency International just released the results of its Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Guatemala doesn't look to good. On a 0 - 100 scale, with 100 close to no corruption, Guatemala scored 29 which is down from the 33 of 2012.

I know - let's give the president another award.

Teaching shoe-making in El Salvador

Whitney Eulich has an interesting story on Sam Hawkins and his wife's efforts to help give former convicts a new start in El Salvador. Sam and his wife traveled to El Salvador in 1986. Upon arrival, they established a non-profit organization, Love Link, that tended to the needs of malnourished babies. 

Twenty years later Sam traveled to the Apanteos prison in Santa Ana. It was during this prison visit that Sam connected with gang members. It was this encounter that led him to open a shoe factory that would help provide former prisoners with a trade and an opportunity to escape gang life. They chose this business because "because it was practical.:

"With these skills, [the workers] are going somewhere," Hawkins says. "Everyone is proud of our work. We have zero defects." One of the largest shoe companies in Central America, ADOC, purchases and sells some of their products now, he notes.

It's a great story but also demonstrates the limits of prisoner rehabilitation in El Salvador. Sam can employ a few dozen workers at one time. He hopes that with time and adequate resources that he can employ nearly two hundred workers. That would be an impressive operation and much better than the bakery operations that employ gang members. But it is a far cry from the tens of thousands, really hundreds of thousands, of quality jobs that El Salvador needs.

The government doesn't have the money to employ that many people and the private sector does not appear that interested in investing in the country. Increasing the attractiveness of El Salvador as a destination for foreign direct investment is a goal of the Millennium Challenge Corporation Compacts I and II, the Partnership for Growth, and other projects but the country does not yet possess the socioeconomic conditions to attract that much foreign investment.

India and Guatemala increase economic ties

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving. I spent the past few days with my in-laws outside Boston. In academia, we generally are lucky to get a tenure-track job. It's even more unusual to find a job within driving distance of one's family. Actually, I don't know how true that is but it is my impression. Fortunately, for my wife and I, we are within driving distance of her family outside Boston and my family in New York and New Jersey. It was great watching out kids play with their cousins.

Now that I am back I should be back to regular blogging this week.

One of the stories that I found interesting while I was gone was this story on the relationship between Guatemala and India. India hopes to use Guatemala as a springboard to the rest of Central America. In 2012, Guatemala imported nearly $250 million from India. At the same time, it only exported $17 million.

India exports vehicles, pharmaceutical equipment, wires and machinery to Guatemala. It is now looking into investments in various hydroelectric projects. Guatemala, on the other hand, exports cardamon, timber, sugar, paper, cardboard, and scrap metal. things.

There's also the illegal side of their relationship. It appears that Indian migrants are using Guatemala more frequently as a transit point towards entering the US illegally (here, here).

You can also read a 2012 background on the relationship between the two countries from the Government of India's Ministry of External Affairs including a little history on the Indian community in Guatemala.

The Indian community in Guatemala is small and consist of about 30 families and 70 individuals in all, working in the Indian Call Centers like ‘24/7 Customer-Guatemala’ and ‘Genpeck’, in cardamom export trade, in auto parts business, or in cottage industries. Most of them came to Guatemala during the last two decades. Also a Guatemala-India Chamber of Commerce and industry was set up in 2004. There is an India association called Asociasion de Amigos de la India ‘Bharat Bandhu’. 

Besides there are about 450-500 people of India origin who came to this region as indentured laborers during the 19th and early 20 centuries and settled in the coastal Guatemala on Atlantic and a small township of Livingstone. They live in villages, own land, and are involved in fishing, agriculture and tourism sectors. They are mostly 4th-5th generation Indians, and by now well integrated into the local community.